Unless I'm mistaken, the jobs report tomorrow will have within it data on the cost of labor, as well as the gross number of new jobs that gets the headlines. If labor costs tick up even a little, that will dominate the day and it will not be pretty. As usual with these announcements, there is no predicting - only a crap shoot.
-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Market Talk / July 2 - 8
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
W
Wizard
Guest
Pilgrim said:
Birth/death module adds a crap load of jobs in the June job report.
This number should "surprise to the upside" if history serves.
The ADP employment number released this week reflects this.
ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment
Actual 368,000M/M Difference
W
Wizard
Guest
Birchtree said:
Investing 101
Short home buildings when interest rates are rising, go long when rates are coming down.
This great economy WAS being driven by housing.
Now what happens next? :embarrest:
Market Update 10:00 am: Indices continue to trade in positive territory but the absence of any substantial leadership to the upside is preventing even more of a rebound following Wednesday's widespread sell-off. Health Care is turning in the best performance, led by strength in pharmaceuticals and HMOs, but is up only 0.4%, while falling bond yields are helping Financials regain some upward momentum. Fortunately for the bulls, the only two sectors failing to participate in today's recovery efforts are Telecom and Utilities -- two of the three least influential SnP 500 sectors.
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
Birchtree
Well-known member
Economics 102
A recent Labor Department report showed that compensation costs for employers rose only 0.6% in the first quarter - the slowest quarterly gain in nearly seven years - following a 0.8% gain in the fourth quarter. Wages and salary growth was unchanged at 0.7% in the first quarter, and only 2.7% higher than a year ago. I wouldn't worry about wage gains there is to much competition from lower-wage workers abroad.
The report also showed benefit costs grew by only 0.5% in the first quarter, the slowest pace since 1999. Companies have shifted health-care costs to employees and trimmed pension contributions. Health-insurance costs for companies were 4.8% higher than a year ago, well below the 7.5% increase in the year ending March 2005 and 9.3% in the year ending in March 2004.
When 60% of inflation comes from labor costs - inflation is contained.
A recent Labor Department report showed that compensation costs for employers rose only 0.6% in the first quarter - the slowest quarterly gain in nearly seven years - following a 0.8% gain in the fourth quarter. Wages and salary growth was unchanged at 0.7% in the first quarter, and only 2.7% higher than a year ago. I wouldn't worry about wage gains there is to much competition from lower-wage workers abroad.
The report also showed benefit costs grew by only 0.5% in the first quarter, the slowest pace since 1999. Companies have shifted health-care costs to employees and trimmed pension contributions. Health-insurance costs for companies were 4.8% higher than a year ago, well below the 7.5% increase in the year ending March 2005 and 9.3% in the year ending in March 2004.
When 60% of inflation comes from labor costs - inflation is contained.
This is why we are doing well today:
-----------------
Last Update: 10:18 AM ET Jul 6, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The nonmanufacturing side of the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 57.0% from 60.1% in May. This is the lowest level since January.
The drop was more than expected. Economists had forecast the index to slip to 59.6%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.
In June, new orders fell to 56.6% from 59.6%.
Inflation pressures eased a bit. The prices-paid index fell to 73.9% from 77.5%.
----------------
So, if we are fully invested, do we take the money and run or stand pat hoping tomorrows numbers will be as good????
-----------------
Last Update: 10:18 AM ET Jul 6, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The nonmanufacturing side of the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 57.0% from 60.1% in May. This is the lowest level since January.
The drop was more than expected. Economists had forecast the index to slip to 59.6%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.
In June, new orders fell to 56.6% from 59.6%.
Inflation pressures eased a bit. The prices-paid index fell to 73.9% from 77.5%.
----------------
So, if we are fully invested, do we take the money and run or stand pat hoping tomorrows numbers will be as good????
Birchtree
Well-known member
The main driver of growth in the future is going to come from the business side, taking the place of high levels of consumer consumption. Business investment jumped at a 14.3% annual rate this year following a mild 4.5% gain late last year. This year economic growth will increasingly rely on business investment as consumers confront a cooling housing market, higher interest rates and rising gasoline prices. The factory orders report yesterday mentioned the increases in industrial machinery and electrical equipment. The times are right to be invested in America.
Slowdown Talk Slows Down
The many moving parts of the world economic boom haven't ground to a halt, but they're not meshing quite as smoothly as they did the first half of the year, leading many to urge caution. It's not exactly a defensive stance, but investors want to get ready to go into one, because the signs of an economic downturn are mounting. Whether this is a summer lull that gives way to a year-end pickup depends on a couple of key factors, including interest rates, inflation, commodity prices and the market getting a handle on the policy approach of new Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke.
http://foxnews.smartmoney.com/pundits/index.cfm?story=20060705
The many moving parts of the world economic boom haven't ground to a halt, but they're not meshing quite as smoothly as they did the first half of the year, leading many to urge caution. It's not exactly a defensive stance, but investors want to get ready to go into one, because the signs of an economic downturn are mounting. Whether this is a summer lull that gives way to a year-end pickup depends on a couple of key factors, including interest rates, inflation, commodity prices and the market getting a handle on the policy approach of new Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke.
http://foxnews.smartmoney.com/pundits/index.cfm?story=20060705
SkyPilot
Well-known member
Re: Market Talk / July 2 - 8 ... info request
Try this one...
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forumdisplay.php?f=29
thiiink said:
Try this one...
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forumdisplay.php?f=29
Birchtree said:
You're right up to a point. And that point is that what little manufacturing we have left in this country will lead in the production of goods utilizing basic commodities that are in demand world wide and ready for export barring we do not enter into trade wars of sorts. Should we begin to seriously enter into trade wars, then we will have another problem to compound existing problems.
Most companies will have no incentive to invest in capital equipment etc...As the price of borrowing (think interest rates) and acquiring productive inputs will be cost prohibitive. They will do what they have been doing for over the last decade or more, speculate and consolidate with the cash that they are sitting on.
The argument that you are putting forth regarding wage inflation is so outdated that it would be difficult for me to seriously comment on it.
Market Update 10:30 am: Equities are now trading at session highs, getting an added boost as Treasuries also regain their footing. ISM Services pulling back from four solid months of above 60% growth to a June read of 57.0% -- the slowest pace since January, has helped push the yield on the 10-yr note (+09/32) to session lows at 5.18%. The employment component slipping to 52.0 from a relatively strong 58.0 is also encouraging with regard to Fed policy while the prices paid component falling to 73.9% from 77.5% in May bodes well from an inflation standpoint, playing into the argument of a potential pause at the next FOMC meeting on August 8th.
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Lot's of disagreement on what will happen tomorrow with the Nonfarm Payroll Report.
Maybe UP?
Associated Press
Bonds Dive After Payrolls Report
By LAURENCE NORMAN , 07.05.2006, 12:22 PM
Treasury prices fell sharply in midday trading Wednesday after a private-sector report signaled that Friday's June payrolls reading could show a large gain.
http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/07/05/ap2859188.html
Maybe UP?
Associated Press
Bonds Dive After Payrolls Report
By LAURENCE NORMAN , 07.05.2006, 12:22 PM
Treasury prices fell sharply in midday trading Wednesday after a private-sector report signaled that Friday's June payrolls reading could show a large gain.
http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/07/05/ap2859188.html
Birchtree
Well-known member
roguewave,
Where do you think the Japanese are buying their high end industrial manufacturing equipment? With the low dollar companies in the export business are very competitive overseas.
Glad you chose not to comment on the wage inflation issue. Your flat wage gain...are you in a position to bargain for higher pay? Let's hear it for flatulence.
Where do you think the Japanese are buying their high end industrial manufacturing equipment? With the low dollar companies in the export business are very competitive overseas.
Glad you chose not to comment on the wage inflation issue. Your flat wage gain...are you in a position to bargain for higher pay? Let's hear it for flatulence.
Wizard said:Birth/death module adds a crap load of jobs in the June job report.
This number should "surprise to the upside" if history serves.
The ADP employment number released this week reflects this.
ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment
Actual 368,000M/M Difference
Wizard -
You have talked before about the jobs number being "leaked" to the boys a day or two earlier than the rest of us seeing it. Is this ADP the report you were talking about? I know this is a fairly new report. Just wondering if we are finally on an equal playing field with "the boys" now.
Market Update 11:30 am: Indices spike higher since the last update, fueled by a crucial court ruling in favor of Big Tobacco. Within the last 30 minutes, the Florida Supreme Court rejected a $145 bln verdict against tobacco companies for injuring smokers, which had been the largest such award ever by an American jury. After unanimously concluding that the punitive damages award was "excessive as a matter of law," shares of Altria (MO 78.80 +5.47), the tenth most influential SnP 500 constituent and a Dow component, turned positive and has soared 7.5% so far to an all-time high.
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
Government-Sponsored Enterprises, others gird for loss of free Fed intraday credit
The U.S. Federal Reserve has been girding finanical markets for less liquidity as it stops offering free intraday credit to privileged debt issuers, including the housing-market government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs.
Under a 2-year-old rule, the Fed on July 20 will no longer give free stop-gap credit to debt issuers including Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Also losing the privilege are the federal farm credit banks, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The Fed says it is ending free credit to these debt issuers to improve the central bank's risk management and to put the issuers on a more level playing field with other borrowers in the private sector. The bottom line, observers say, is less liquidity in the payment system and increased costs for daylight overdraft.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...-4AC0-91E9-4545F0338A7F}&dist=rss&siteid=mktw
The U.S. Federal Reserve has been girding finanical markets for less liquidity as it stops offering free intraday credit to privileged debt issuers, including the housing-market government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs.
Under a 2-year-old rule, the Fed on July 20 will no longer give free stop-gap credit to debt issuers including Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Also losing the privilege are the federal farm credit banks, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The Fed says it is ending free credit to these debt issuers to improve the central bank's risk management and to put the issuers on a more level playing field with other borrowers in the private sector. The bottom line, observers say, is less liquidity in the payment system and increased costs for daylight overdraft.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...-4AC0-91E9-4545F0338A7F}&dist=rss&siteid=mktw
