Market Talk / July 2 - 8

[Fivetears]

Market Update 2:00 pm:
Recent recovery attempts are short-lived as further deterioration in chip stocks continues to take a toll on the influential Tech sector (-1.6%). As if Intel (INTC 18.85 -0.51) turning in the worst performance (-24%) among Dow components in the first half of 2006 wasn't bad enough, UBS cutting their EPS estimates on the chip giant has helped push the stock down 2.6%. Also among all 19 components in the PHLX Semi Sector Index losing ground is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 24.06 -0.54), which is off 2.2% after UBS cut its price target to $29 from $33, while Marvel Technology Group (MRVL 41.49 -3.35) has plunged 7.5% to an eight-month lows amid an option probe.
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

 

[The_Technician]

I go out to lunch and come back and it's all about which post I deleted, which I didn't delete but should have, PM's about who I should ban, etc. Do you think I watch the board all day? No time. Some of you ex-moderators should know it is not an easy job and it is certainly thankless so I'd hope you'd be a little more considerate when posting.

If not, please make me a list of all the acceptable and unacceptable posts and I'll go through them. By the way, I didn't realize I was being judged by my moderating skills - losing "clout." You should go over the RevShark's message board where every message is viewed by a moderator before it is posted. Most of the posts made here wouldn't see the light of day over there. I guess he's been down this road before. Is that the way we want to go?

Take it from me who has experience being dragged across the bottom of the ship, "ya doing great kid"......:nuts:

 

[Wizard]

High energy prices and elevated interest rates will put a damper on the U.S. economy during the balance of 2006 and into next year, the Conference Board of Canada predicted in its latest economic forecast.

Higher and higher energy costs have hardly made a dent in consumer spending in recent years, but that trend is likely to end soon, the board said.

"The party is expected to wind down," said Kip Beckman, the board's principal research associate. "High energy prices and the rising cost of borrowing mean that households will have less disposable income to spend."

The board is forecasting growth in gross domestic product of 3.4 per cent for all of 2006. That's far below the growth rate of 5.3 per cent experience in the first quarter of the year.

For 2007, the board predicts that U.S. GDP will grow at just 2.7 per cent.

With interest rates rising, borrowing to buy a home has become more costly and is beginning to slow, the forecast says. "The demand for homes is quickly stalling as consumers begin to buckle under the impact of rising mortgage rates."

The combination of high housing costs and steep energy prices mean households have less to spend on non-energy goods and services, the conference board said.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060704.wconference0704/BNStory/Business/home

 

[Birchtree]

Now Mr. Handsome, that was a good post. I must give credit when credit is due. Thankyou so very much.

 

[SkyPilot]

Now Mr. Handsome, that was a good post. I must give credit when credit is due. Thankyou so very much.

I concur.

 

[Spaf]

Agree, that was a good post, something contributed.

Market Wop!
When ever the market goes down, some posts go to.....

......The bigger the drop<>The bigger the pot!

 

[tsptalk]

The combination of high housing costs and steep energy prices mean households have less to spend on non-energy goods and services, the conference board said.

I still look at the market as a leading indicator and it has basically reacted to higher energy costs and higher interest rates already in my opinion. The S&P and Dow haven't exactly set the world on fire the past two and a half years.

The 2nd quarter earnings reports may be the key. Are rising rates and energy costs slowing the economy? The earnings reports will tell us more. Of course every economic report between now and the August FOMC meeting will also be a market mover.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
July 05, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Socks holding in tension.
Con-Yak..................................Vestors slip in rain of lube, rocket residue and rate woes.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1270.91, dn -9.28
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.069, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-0.534, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........90.06, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 54.21 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................75.19, up +1.26
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green / Red [doodles +2-3, Lube > 75]

Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: 1267. Trail: 1254.

 

[robo]

Dave's Daily
Wednesday July 5, 2006
Previous | Archives


MARKET COMMENT

July 5, 2006




The annoying (“look at me, look at me!”) little pipsqueak launches a few rockets and everyone goes nuts. (Well, it was the 4th of July!) One has to ask a simple question, “Why, if this punk is so dangerous, do the Chinese tolerate his presence on their border?” Because they like it.

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php


Ok, I know, another maybe the fed isn't done yet sell-off. Don't worry, soon another everthing is ok rally. Get use to it, it's summertime and investing and trading ain't easy.

Isn't that a song?


We sell-off and then rally again, have fun!!! Buying the dips again, OUCH!!! We are due some consolidation and back-filling here.

 

[Wizard]

\The annoying (“look at me, look at me!”) little pipsqueak launches a few rockets and everyone goes nuts.

The "little pipsqueak" has China and Russia on his side.

China, Russia Resist North Korea Sanctions
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/07/05/D8IM3P800.html

 

[robo]

The "little pipsqueak" has China and Russia on his side.

China, Russia Resist North Korea Sanctions
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/07/05/D8IM3P800.html

I agree....

 

[Birchtree]

I saw Peter Schiff on Kudlow this evening, he must know Wimpy. That's all I can say about that in polite company.

 

[robo]

Stocks: Correction Underway in Stocks

After three weeks of rally, world stock markets decided it was time to take a break to the downside Wednesday. If you listen to the journalists, they explained that it was due to the North Korean missile launches over the Fourth of July. Of course, that would indicate that stock investors had failed to get the news two weeks ago that the North Koreans were planning to do this deed almost any day now. At least we know now what journalists think of investors.

This correction was poised to happen well before the missile launches took place, as we told you days ago (we said the market would rally Monday and that would be the high of the week). But, you have to sell advertisements somehow, even though very few people pay much attention to them nowadays. Journalists are like the motley fools of our time: kept around to make fools of themselves with their ludicrous "explanations" of why the market did this or that. Without them, we might have to actually think and understand why the market moves the way it does. "Always keep the masses entertained and, more importantly, distracted!" has always been a good motto for the Powers-That-Be.

After we took short term profits in stocks, we are ready to buy back. But, Wednesday's market internals don't say it will be soon. In fact, the market may have considerably further down to go before it's a trading buy once again.

http://marketclues.blogspot.com/

 

[James48843]

Today's numbers are in:
=======================
G FUND = 11.44 +.01

F FUND = 10.56 - .04

C FUND = 13.93 - .10

S FUND = 17.13 -.21

I FUND = 19.21 -.27
======================

I think tomorrow will be down too.

 

[Birchtree]

Superaccelaration - snort. Show me another 9 to 1 upside volume ratio.

 

[Mike]

An exerpt from a story I found on msn's site:

The ADP National Employment report said nonfarm private employment rose by 368,000 jobs last month. The report, which uses data from 225,000 businesses, indicates that the rise in payrolls to be reported by the government on Friday may be well above the consensus estimate, said Joel Prakken of Macroeconomic Advisers, which prepared the report, on CNBC.

A big jump in June payrolls will sound wage-inflation alarms and could provoke the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in August to keep job-market gains in check. The chance of an August rate hike rose to 76% from 66% after the release of the report. And the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 5.23% from about 5.15% on Monday.

I think that just raised the probability of a sell-off.

 

[James48843]

Nikkei 225 down to 186.54 (- 1.20%) at midday Tokyo time---
Seoul down too= 1,260.48 down 19.37 (-1.51%).

Looks like the "I" fund will take another big hit tomorrow.

 

[tsptalk]

I think that just raised the probability of a sell-off.

I think that is what triggered Wednesday's selling. Watch for a "buy the bad news" rally Friday when the jobs report comes in.

 

[Mike]

It'd be comical if the gov't number actually came in low. Who would investors believe - the gov't or the ADP?

 

[Birchtree]

Watch out, watch out, because Chicken Little is about - the premises. Cluck, cluck. The sky is falling I'm sure of it. I did notice where the Dow Jones Wilshire U.S. home builders stock index is down 36% over the past 52 weeks. It peaked in '05 at 1100 and now sits at 6488.70. Sure is tempting to nibble for the next cycle. Snort.