Market Talk / July 2 - 8

[The_Technician]

The Technician,

One of the reasons I like you is that you are so prescient. An outside the box thinker. I'll have to rewire my bullish strategy - perhaps the market is interpreting that deficit reduction will not happen in response to a lower and competitive dollar. However, I think there will continue to be a fall in the dollar and that scenario will bring the trade deficit down to a sustainable level. This will take a couple of years and if the market is truly a discounting mechanism for the future the Dow and SPX will climb the wall of worry to new all-time highs. I think there is going to be some data released this week on the deficit. Double digit earnings increases will be the frosting on a deficit reduction cake. Oink. Snort.

Why thanky Birchy.....I can surprise you in many ways at the moment...so don't get too cozy.....it is one thing to bring on the news and try to predict all the variables of the future global economics....its another to see the results of that interpretation on a short term basis.....

The thing that bothers me is that your long term position in C doesn't match 90% of the investment strategy on the MB, yet you still advocate and proliferate it to the majority......I would think that you would not want to lead on less experienced members with your DCA strategy without telling them your position....maybe you should post that strategy on every post so as not to mislead them in a short term position.....it would leave your "influence" in a better light.....so think about it.....

personally I think with the current trend in corporate earnings going to the dogs, your future predictions will be put on hold for a couple of years.....

 

[ocean]

I have averaged around 10% in my Roth accounts since I started them. Not great, but I'm a conservative investor.

robo,

I would like to know or (anyone can suggest) where is the best way to invest (allocation/diversified wise) outside of TSP with consistent 10% annual returns and relatively conservative.

Thanks
Ocean

 

[TiCKed]

robo,

I would like to know or (anyone can suggest) where is the best way to invest (allocation/diversified wise) outside of TSP with consistent 10% annual returns and relatively conservative.

Thanks
Ocean

Depends on how many years back you want to go....."Consistent" is a nebulous term.

............................1 Year...3 Year...5 Year...10 Year...Since Inception
Vanguard................................................................07/01/1929
Wellington Fund Inv..9.50%...10.98%...6.91%...9.79%....8.34%

This is a balanced, 65/35 large cap stocks to bonds. I'd call that fairly conservative.

 

[Spaf]

Ticked, your getting close.
Vanguard is good!

10% - consistant - conservative
The current yak!
http://www.cinchouse.com/finances2/dollar41.htm

MHO: For security, managing your own funds is the only way to go, for the small-medium investor. In TSP you can always push the "G" button. In internet brokers you can always sell back to cash. Some of these brokers treat cash like a bank savings account where you get a % per month.

For 10% you almost have to get in stocks. Anytime in stocks, you have risks! Vanguard, USAA, etc. I'll stick with TSP, and their index funds + my internet broker.

If you find a better way, let me know........ ............Spaf

 

[Spaf]

Will be closing this weekly thread and starting a new one for next week!
Thanks for the Yak!
Regards.......................

........................Spaf