The_Technician
Active member
Pilgrim said:
It won't be anything worth taking a chance with.....expect more down days to come afterwards.....:notrust:
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Market Talk / July 2 - 8
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
It won't be anything worth taking a chance with.....expect more down days to come afterwards.....:notrust:
Nasty, but no real damage yet. The S&P stayed above support, volume was light, and the S&P only lost 5 points for the week so I don't see any real evidence to get panicky just yet.
The earnings warnings are starting to come out and that added to the negativety. We may be starting a move to the 1220 test area, but I'll stay 100% in stocks as long as the S&P holds 1260.
The earnings warnings are starting to come out and that added to the negativety. We may be starting a move to the 1220 test area, but I'll stay 100% in stocks as long as the S&P holds 1260.
W
Wizard
Guest
Birchtree said:
The trend is lower highs and lower lows. You are welcome to it. Snort.
BTW: All sentiment surveys have the bulls leading the bears. For example this board was 66% bullish for this week. When you run with the herd, you die with the herd. Snort.
I am not sure where you pull that "bull markets" do not like company crap from. Just look at the sentiment surveys.
W
Wizard
Guest
07/03/06 - 07/07/06 66% 15% 287
15% bears/66% bulls. Now who is the real contrary investor here?
This thing is going higher right fellahs? Snort.
15% bears/66% bulls. Now who is the real contrary investor here?
This thing is going higher right fellahs? Snort.
robo
Well-known member
QQV: NASDAQ Option Volatility and Short-Term Returns
The QQV is a measure of the implied volatility of a hypothetical at-the-money QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 Index) option, expressed as an annual standard deviation of returns. It is intended as a measure of trader sentiment regarding future volatility of the Index. Like the better known VIX, QQV tends to rise in falling markets and fall in rising markets.
Since 2004 (N = 623 trading days), when QQV has made a 10-day low (N = 102), the next five days in QQQQ have averaged a loss of -.14% (49 up, 53 down). That is worse than the average five-day gain in QQQQ of .08% (271 up, 250 down) for the remainder of the sample.
On the other hand, when QQV has made a 10-day high (N = 87), the next five days in QQQQ have averaged a sizable gain of .48% (55 up, 32 down). That is much stronger than the average five-day loss in QQQQ of -.03% (265 up, 271 down).
It appears that when traders are feeling safest--i.e., expecting the least volatility--returns are subnormal in the NASDAQ. When traders are expecting the greatest turmoil, returns are superior. Perhaps there really is opportunity in crisis!
posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. @ 3:25 AM 0 comments
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/07/qqv-nasdaq-option-volatility-and-short.html
The QQV is a measure of the implied volatility of a hypothetical at-the-money QQQQ (NASDAQ 100 Index) option, expressed as an annual standard deviation of returns. It is intended as a measure of trader sentiment regarding future volatility of the Index. Like the better known VIX, QQV tends to rise in falling markets and fall in rising markets.
Since 2004 (N = 623 trading days), when QQV has made a 10-day low (N = 102), the next five days in QQQQ have averaged a loss of -.14% (49 up, 53 down). That is worse than the average five-day gain in QQQQ of .08% (271 up, 250 down) for the remainder of the sample.
On the other hand, when QQV has made a 10-day high (N = 87), the next five days in QQQQ have averaged a sizable gain of .48% (55 up, 32 down). That is much stronger than the average five-day loss in QQQQ of -.03% (265 up, 271 down).
It appears that when traders are feeling safest--i.e., expecting the least volatility--returns are subnormal in the NASDAQ. When traders are expecting the greatest turmoil, returns are superior. Perhaps there really is opportunity in crisis!
posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. @ 3:25 AM 0 comments
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2006/07/qqv-nasdaq-option-volatility-and-short.html
robo
Well-known member
BEING STREET SMART
by Sy Harding
THE YEAR'S FIRST HALF IS HISTORY. NOW WHAT? July 7, 2006.
The first half of the year is now history.
It’s been a difficult year so far for buy and hold investors in just about all markets, U.S. or foreign, whether in stocks, bonds, or gold.
Most markets, with the exception of the bond market, were strong in the early part of the year, only to plummet back to earth. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were up 6% to 9% from the beginning of the year to their peaks in early May. They then gave back all the gains and were down fractionally for the year by mid-June.
The volatility was even more pronounced in foreign markets. The DJ World Index was up 13% this year to its peak in early May, but it also gave back all of that and a bit more by mid-June. The Japanese market was up 9% to its late April peak, then gave back twice that much, plunging 19% by mid-June. The fireworks in emerging markets was even more spectacular. For instance, the DJ Latin America Index was up 30% from the beginning of the year to its peak in early May, and it gave all of that back, and a bit more, by its mid-June low.
Even some of the most touted sectors gave investors emotional roller-coaster rides. For instance, the energy sector was up 19% year-to-date at its peak in late April, but gave it all back and a bit more by mid-June. The ‘Basic Materials Sector”, hot due to world-wide demand for raw materials, was up 22% year-to-date by its peak in early May, and gave that all back and a bit more by mid-June.
In the hot gold sector, gold bullion soared from $513 an ounce at the beginning of the year to $725 an ounce by mid-May, creating all kinds of excitement. It then plunged just as fast, to a low of $559 an ounce by mid-June, not quite giving back all of its rise, but creating more than enough pain for those who were enticed in late in the game by the unusual spike up in the first few months of the year. Meanwhile, the gold mining stocks, as measured by the XAU Index of Mining Stocks, rose a big 31% from the beginning of the year to mid-May. It then gave back all of that gain and more by mid-June.
The activity of the first half of the year was yet another illustration of the degree to which it is increasingly a one-world economy, and demonstrated yet again that when the U.S. market sneezes, the rest of the world immediately feels ill. Markets around the world were up in the early months of the year, peaked almost to the day in early May, gave back all of their earlier gains in the subsequent decline, simultaneously reached a low in mid-June, and have all rallied back some from the short-term oversold condition created by that correction.
What happened in early May that caused the market to roll over to the downside?
The explanations provided by Wall Street were all over the lot. First of course, it was that the market would continue to rise for the rest of the year with no correction. After all, the economy was strong, corporate earnings were growing in double-digits, the Fed was close to calling a halt to its interest rate hikes, and so on. That ignored the fact that the market looks ahead to what it expects conditions will be six months to a year in advance, so market tops always take place when everything is still looking great.
So, a decline did take place, with May turning out to be the worst May for the S&P 500 in twenty years. After the fact, Wall Street had to provide explanations. They were that the decline took place because investors became concerned about rising inflation, or perhaps rising interest rates, or maybe high oil prices, or Iran ’s nuclear ambitions, or that terrorists might disrupt oil supplies.
The only problem with those explanations is that those conditions were not new in May, but had been in the picture for quite some time.
What was the clear change in May? It was that the market’s seasonality had changed from favorable to unfavorable, as in “Sell in May and Go Away”. The evidence is just so clear that historically the market makes most of its gains in the period between October and May, and suffers most of its losses and corrections in the opposite period. The reasons the pattern is so consistent are also clear, basically being the large chunks of extra money that flow into investors’ hands in the favorable season and then dry up in the summer months.
However, seasonality is but one reason I have been suggesting since May that short-term rallies be used to lighten up, and even that downside positions be taken in short-sales and bear-type mutual funds. I still expect the market will make a significant low in the September to November time-frame, and only from that low will the market manage a sustainable new up-leg.
One area I am beginning to like on the buy side is bonds. The bond market, like all markets, looks ahead, and should now begin to see that the Fed is probably going too far with its rate hikes, will slow the economy too much, perhaps even drive it into recession, and will have to reverse itself and begin cutting interest rates by year-end. Anticipation of declining rates should begin driving bond prices higher.
http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm3.html
by Sy Harding
THE YEAR'S FIRST HALF IS HISTORY. NOW WHAT? July 7, 2006.
The first half of the year is now history.
It’s been a difficult year so far for buy and hold investors in just about all markets, U.S. or foreign, whether in stocks, bonds, or gold.
Most markets, with the exception of the bond market, were strong in the early part of the year, only to plummet back to earth. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were up 6% to 9% from the beginning of the year to their peaks in early May. They then gave back all the gains and were down fractionally for the year by mid-June.
The volatility was even more pronounced in foreign markets. The DJ World Index was up 13% this year to its peak in early May, but it also gave back all of that and a bit more by mid-June. The Japanese market was up 9% to its late April peak, then gave back twice that much, plunging 19% by mid-June. The fireworks in emerging markets was even more spectacular. For instance, the DJ Latin America Index was up 30% from the beginning of the year to its peak in early May, and it gave all of that back, and a bit more, by its mid-June low.
Even some of the most touted sectors gave investors emotional roller-coaster rides. For instance, the energy sector was up 19% year-to-date at its peak in late April, but gave it all back and a bit more by mid-June. The ‘Basic Materials Sector”, hot due to world-wide demand for raw materials, was up 22% year-to-date by its peak in early May, and gave that all back and a bit more by mid-June.
In the hot gold sector, gold bullion soared from $513 an ounce at the beginning of the year to $725 an ounce by mid-May, creating all kinds of excitement. It then plunged just as fast, to a low of $559 an ounce by mid-June, not quite giving back all of its rise, but creating more than enough pain for those who were enticed in late in the game by the unusual spike up in the first few months of the year. Meanwhile, the gold mining stocks, as measured by the XAU Index of Mining Stocks, rose a big 31% from the beginning of the year to mid-May. It then gave back all of that gain and more by mid-June.
The activity of the first half of the year was yet another illustration of the degree to which it is increasingly a one-world economy, and demonstrated yet again that when the U.S. market sneezes, the rest of the world immediately feels ill. Markets around the world were up in the early months of the year, peaked almost to the day in early May, gave back all of their earlier gains in the subsequent decline, simultaneously reached a low in mid-June, and have all rallied back some from the short-term oversold condition created by that correction.
What happened in early May that caused the market to roll over to the downside?
The explanations provided by Wall Street were all over the lot. First of course, it was that the market would continue to rise for the rest of the year with no correction. After all, the economy was strong, corporate earnings were growing in double-digits, the Fed was close to calling a halt to its interest rate hikes, and so on. That ignored the fact that the market looks ahead to what it expects conditions will be six months to a year in advance, so market tops always take place when everything is still looking great.
So, a decline did take place, with May turning out to be the worst May for the S&P 500 in twenty years. After the fact, Wall Street had to provide explanations. They were that the decline took place because investors became concerned about rising inflation, or perhaps rising interest rates, or maybe high oil prices, or Iran ’s nuclear ambitions, or that terrorists might disrupt oil supplies.
The only problem with those explanations is that those conditions were not new in May, but had been in the picture for quite some time.
What was the clear change in May? It was that the market’s seasonality had changed from favorable to unfavorable, as in “Sell in May and Go Away”. The evidence is just so clear that historically the market makes most of its gains in the period between October and May, and suffers most of its losses and corrections in the opposite period. The reasons the pattern is so consistent are also clear, basically being the large chunks of extra money that flow into investors’ hands in the favorable season and then dry up in the summer months.
However, seasonality is but one reason I have been suggesting since May that short-term rallies be used to lighten up, and even that downside positions be taken in short-sales and bear-type mutual funds. I still expect the market will make a significant low in the September to November time-frame, and only from that low will the market manage a sustainable new up-leg.
One area I am beginning to like on the buy side is bonds. The bond market, like all markets, looks ahead, and should now begin to see that the Fed is probably going too far with its rate hikes, will slow the economy too much, perhaps even drive it into recession, and will have to reverse itself and begin cutting interest rates by year-end. Anticipation of declining rates should begin driving bond prices higher.
http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm3.html
The_Technician
Active member
Birchtree said:
Birchtree, your projections of the market just climbing and climbing all of last year hasn't bloomed. It indicates that you have a lack of understanding of the market in general....and now you say you have a lack of being able to interprete the market movements on a short time basis.....and this constant monitoring, interpreting, and positioning of your investments is to much for you to handle.....
So in retrospect, I would say that this is why you dollar cost average....its a good method for one who is lost in the world of investment....
No BS.....
robo
Well-known member
Friday, July 07, 2006
I will remember this week as the one Wall street failed to send a clear message to the Koreans that we will not be intimidated. Instead, the Boyz decided to use the public fear to make a buck. The other thing that bothers me is that I bet this Korean thug shorted the markets for millions ahead of his silly missile launch and has profited handsomely. I really thought the Street would whack him with a nice short squeeze, but it seems they have forgotten which country they belong to. I am saying this because I think the markets will not fall part quite yet and that they are gunning for further gains this summer. That they stayed with the program this week instead of giving the Bronx cheer to that idiot in Korea makes me quite furious, especially when you know how easy it is for them to do so.
No comment
NQ went down to test the trendline off June lows (see chart) and we bounced from there in the closing minutes. ES/SPX found clear support at 10 day ema. This whole exercize of so-called fear (who seriously believes the Koreans are a threat) was meant to pick up stocks at cheaper prices. Yields have dropped and so has oil. There should be rally on Monday or Tuesday out of this mess.
http://aheadofthenewsblog.blogspot.com/
I will remember this week as the one Wall street failed to send a clear message to the Koreans that we will not be intimidated. Instead, the Boyz decided to use the public fear to make a buck. The other thing that bothers me is that I bet this Korean thug shorted the markets for millions ahead of his silly missile launch and has profited handsomely. I really thought the Street would whack him with a nice short squeeze, but it seems they have forgotten which country they belong to. I am saying this because I think the markets will not fall part quite yet and that they are gunning for further gains this summer. That they stayed with the program this week instead of giving the Bronx cheer to that idiot in Korea makes me quite furious, especially when you know how easy it is for them to do so.
No comment
NQ went down to test the trendline off June lows (see chart) and we bounced from there in the closing minutes. ES/SPX found clear support at 10 day ema. This whole exercize of so-called fear (who seriously believes the Koreans are a threat) was meant to pick up stocks at cheaper prices. Yields have dropped and so has oil. There should be rally on Monday or Tuesday out of this mess.
http://aheadofthenewsblog.blogspot.com/
robo
Well-known member
Good Morning,
Please find here the link to the latest issue of the Investment Commentary.
Please download the pdf file by clicking on the following link: http://www.hable.ca/downloads/Commentary.pdf
(The link has been checked for viruses and worms, and does not contain any malicious software according to the latest scan)
Sincerely,
Dr. Volkmar G. Hable
Please find here the link to the latest issue of the Investment Commentary.
Please download the pdf file by clicking on the following link: http://www.hable.ca/downloads/Commentary.pdf
(The link has been checked for viruses and worms, and does not contain any malicious software according to the latest scan)
Sincerely,
Dr. Volkmar G. Hable
robo
Well-known member
If you follow Mike Burk as I do; the good news is his record YTD has been very good.
Trading week recommendations: YTD Wins 15 / Loses 4 /Ties 8
The Bad News is he thinks next week will be down again. I hope earnings will give him 5 loses for the year.
July 08, 2006
Technical Market Report
by Mike Burk
The good news is:
• Next week, the second week in July, is seasonally the strongest week of the month.
Short term
The new low indicator is a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of new lows plotted on an inverted Y axis (up is good). Direction is most important, but level has some significance. Risk is low when the indicator is moving upward and at a low level. For the NASDAQ low level may be defined as less than 40 on the indicator (10% trend) and less than 70 as a raw numerical value. When the indicator turns upward from a low it is prudent to wait for at least 5 consecutive up days before considering the market "safe".
Conclusion
Some of the indicators suggest the market has entered a down cycle that will last about two weeks, but next weeks seasonal strength should moderate that decline.
I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday July 14 than they were on Friday July 7.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-5505.htm
Trading week recommendations: YTD Wins 15 / Loses 4 /Ties 8
The Bad News is he thinks next week will be down again. I hope earnings will give him 5 loses for the year.
July 08, 2006
Technical Market Report
by Mike Burk
The good news is:
• Next week, the second week in July, is seasonally the strongest week of the month.
Short term
The new low indicator is a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of new lows plotted on an inverted Y axis (up is good). Direction is most important, but level has some significance. Risk is low when the indicator is moving upward and at a low level. For the NASDAQ low level may be defined as less than 40 on the indicator (10% trend) and less than 70 as a raw numerical value. When the indicator turns upward from a low it is prudent to wait for at least 5 consecutive up days before considering the market "safe".
Conclusion
Some of the indicators suggest the market has entered a down cycle that will last about two weeks, but next weeks seasonal strength should moderate that decline.
I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday July 14 than they were on Friday July 7.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-5505.htm
robo
Well-known member
Always good reads with your morning coffee, afternoon tea or evening Beer.
It must be after 5 PM for beer!
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TopAdvisors.html
It must be after 5 PM for beer!
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TopAdvisors.html
robo
Well-known member
I'm trading my Roth using Proshares now. The main reason is being able to buy at Market prices. Not for investors, but great for traders. I put 5K in mine and my wife's account every year now. You can trade Proshares using any IRA Roth Brokerage Account. Proshares are listed on AMEX.
Welcome to the American Stock Exchange
Welcome to amex.com, a comprehensive resource for investors and issuers seeking the unique market environment offered at the American Stock Exchange. By continually cultivating new ideas and building relationships across the globe, the Amex is creating financial opportunities for individual and institutional investors and issuers spanning every industry sector and market size.
http://www.amex.com/
The rule for most people should be the following:
1. 401K to get the matching money
2. Max your Roth IRA's
3. Max remaining 401K
You will be happy you did as you watch this tax free account grow!
If you want to learn more about these funds, checkout www.proshares.com.
How these new ETFs can energize your portfolio
By Rob Hanna
TradingMarkets.com
July 5, 2006 4:30 PM ET
| View Archives | Print | E-mail this page to a friend |
Since last Thursday’s big advance the market has failed to make any progress. The most likely scenario in my mind is that the move last week was an overreaction. Large institutions were going to do their absolute best to push the market higher going into the 1st half close and the Fed helped provide an excuse for a rally. Now that the 1st half is over and the holiday is passed it will be interesting to see if the good feeling persists.
I’m still not seeing much evidence to make me believe this rally is for real. If it is, there will be plenty of time to play it by trading in leading stocks breaking out of proper bases. Very few proper bases have set up. Over this past weekend I did find a fair amount of stocks that appeared to be forming the right side of potential “cup” formations. They should begin completing their bases in the next week or so. If I am wrong and this rally is for real, these potential new leaders are where I will be looking to get long. If I’m right, we should see a new leg down begin in the next few weeks. For now I’m still patient and bearish.
Today I thought I would talk a little about some ETFs that have begun trading recently. They are the ProShares Trust ETFs. There are two groups, leveraged and inverse ETFs. The leveraged ETFs are designed to have their results correspond to two times their underlying index. The inverse funds are designed to have their results correspond to the inverse of those indices. The four indices that are available in both groups are the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P 400 and Dow 30 Industrials.
For people that actively trade their IRA who could not easily execute short strategies or utilize leverage (without options), these ETFs may provide attractive opportunities. Previously many traders had to trade their IRA significantly different than their margin account. These funds will allow traders to trade cash and IRA accounts in a much more aggressive manner. Additionally, an advantage to using inverse ETFs as opposed to outright shorting is that you can’t lose more than you lay out on the trade.
If you want to learn more about these funds, checkout www.proshares.com.
Good trading,
Rob
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site...-can-energize-your-portfolio-by-Rob-Hanna.cfm
Welcome to the American Stock Exchange
Welcome to amex.com, a comprehensive resource for investors and issuers seeking the unique market environment offered at the American Stock Exchange. By continually cultivating new ideas and building relationships across the globe, the Amex is creating financial opportunities for individual and institutional investors and issuers spanning every industry sector and market size.
http://www.amex.com/
The rule for most people should be the following:
1. 401K to get the matching money
2. Max your Roth IRA's
3. Max remaining 401K
You will be happy you did as you watch this tax free account grow!
If you want to learn more about these funds, checkout www.proshares.com.
How these new ETFs can energize your portfolio
By Rob Hanna
TradingMarkets.com
July 5, 2006 4:30 PM ET
| View Archives | Print | E-mail this page to a friend |
Since last Thursday’s big advance the market has failed to make any progress. The most likely scenario in my mind is that the move last week was an overreaction. Large institutions were going to do their absolute best to push the market higher going into the 1st half close and the Fed helped provide an excuse for a rally. Now that the 1st half is over and the holiday is passed it will be interesting to see if the good feeling persists.
I’m still not seeing much evidence to make me believe this rally is for real. If it is, there will be plenty of time to play it by trading in leading stocks breaking out of proper bases. Very few proper bases have set up. Over this past weekend I did find a fair amount of stocks that appeared to be forming the right side of potential “cup” formations. They should begin completing their bases in the next week or so. If I am wrong and this rally is for real, these potential new leaders are where I will be looking to get long. If I’m right, we should see a new leg down begin in the next few weeks. For now I’m still patient and bearish.
Today I thought I would talk a little about some ETFs that have begun trading recently. They are the ProShares Trust ETFs. There are two groups, leveraged and inverse ETFs. The leveraged ETFs are designed to have their results correspond to two times their underlying index. The inverse funds are designed to have their results correspond to the inverse of those indices. The four indices that are available in both groups are the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P 400 and Dow 30 Industrials.
For people that actively trade their IRA who could not easily execute short strategies or utilize leverage (without options), these ETFs may provide attractive opportunities. Previously many traders had to trade their IRA significantly different than their margin account. These funds will allow traders to trade cash and IRA accounts in a much more aggressive manner. Additionally, an advantage to using inverse ETFs as opposed to outright shorting is that you can’t lose more than you lay out on the trade.
If you want to learn more about these funds, checkout www.proshares.com.
Good trading,
Rob
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site...-can-energize-your-portfolio-by-Rob-Hanna.cfm
robo
Well-known member
Technical Talk
<< Previous | Next >>
Remaining Bearish on Technology
By Arthur B. Hill - Fri 07-Jul-06 4:27 AM EDT
The general market is going to have a difficult time moving higher as long as QQQQ is leading the way lower. I use the price relative to compare the performance of the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The price relative is a ratio of QQQQ to SPY or QQQQ divided by SPY. The price relative rises when QQQQ outperforms and falls when QQQQ underperforms.
http://etfinvestmentoutlook.com/commentary.php?id=10088&s=Remaining Bearish on Technology
Welcome to ETF Investment Outlook featuring breadth charts and key rankings for over 100 ETFs so you can find the next move up or turn down. Track our key indicators including McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index, McClellan Volume Oscillator, Net New Highs and more. To get to the bottom line, subscribe to the ETF Newsletter for concise analysis and recommendations.
http://etfinvestmentoutlook.com/
<< Previous | Next >>
Remaining Bearish on Technology
By Arthur B. Hill - Fri 07-Jul-06 4:27 AM EDT
The general market is going to have a difficult time moving higher as long as QQQQ is leading the way lower. I use the price relative to compare the performance of the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The price relative is a ratio of QQQQ to SPY or QQQQ divided by SPY. The price relative rises when QQQQ outperforms and falls when QQQQ underperforms.
http://etfinvestmentoutlook.com/commentary.php?id=10088&s=Remaining Bearish on Technology
Welcome to ETF Investment Outlook featuring breadth charts and key rankings for over 100 ETFs so you can find the next move up or turn down. Track our key indicators including McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index, McClellan Volume Oscillator, Net New Highs and more. To get to the bottom line, subscribe to the ETF Newsletter for concise analysis and recommendations.
http://etfinvestmentoutlook.com/
"The rule for most people should be the following:
1. 401K to get the matching money
2. Max your Roth IRA's
3. Max remaining 401K
You will be happy you did as you watch this tax free account grow!"
This is one of the riskiest strategies that I would ever recommend to anyone I liked. This is literally the definition of counterparty risk. These are all derivatives of a debt instrument known as a Federal Reserve Note that is losing purchasing power an extremely fast rate. Higher interest rates and higher oil prices will weigh heavily on this strategy. Good luck.
1. 401K to get the matching money
2. Max your Roth IRA's
3. Max remaining 401K
You will be happy you did as you watch this tax free account grow!"
This is one of the riskiest strategies that I would ever recommend to anyone I liked. This is literally the definition of counterparty risk. These are all derivatives of a debt instrument known as a Federal Reserve Note that is losing purchasing power an extremely fast rate. Higher interest rates and higher oil prices will weigh heavily on this strategy. Good luck.
TiCKed
Member
roguewave said:
Excuse me? Where in there does it mention ANY actual investments? For all we can guess, they are money markets, or CD's with consistent and safe returns....or gold mutual funds....or in corporate bonds....or...large caps....or...or...
I think you missed the point of the advice...which is excellent, and advice you will get from any competent advisor.
Point is: With the limited funds you have to save and/or invest for retirement, and many tax advantaged savings/investment vehicles available, where should you put your money? (Where you actually INVEST the money once it's in the account is another question entirely).
Guess some would prefer that a mattress was listed?
Last edited:
Birchtree
Well-known member
The Technician,
One of the reasons I like you is that you are so prescient. An outside the box thinker. I'll have to rewire my bullish strategy - perhaps the market is interpreting that deficit reduction will not happen in response to a lower and competitive dollar. However, I think there will continue to be a fall in the dollar and that scenario will bring the trade deficit down to a sustainable level. This will take a couple of years and if the market is truly a discounting mechanism for the future the Dow and SPX will climb the wall of worry to new all-time highs. I think there is going to be some data released this week on the deficit. Double digit earnings increases will be the frosting on a deficit reduction cake. Oink. Snort.
One of the reasons I like you is that you are so prescient. An outside the box thinker. I'll have to rewire my bullish strategy - perhaps the market is interpreting that deficit reduction will not happen in response to a lower and competitive dollar. However, I think there will continue to be a fall in the dollar and that scenario will bring the trade deficit down to a sustainable level. This will take a couple of years and if the market is truly a discounting mechanism for the future the Dow and SPX will climb the wall of worry to new all-time highs. I think there is going to be some data released this week on the deficit. Double digit earnings increases will be the frosting on a deficit reduction cake. Oink. Snort.
Birchtree
Well-known member
What persistent inflationary pressures are they talking about?
For instance, average hourly earnings rose eight cents, or 0.5% to $16.70 from May and were up 3.9% from a year earlier, the fastest year to year growth since June 2001. So what, we are talking $0.08/hour. The combination of slowing growth and rising prices is typical for an economy in the middle of a business cycle. Inflation tends to peak after growth. This data reflects price increases of the past, rather than some new independent source of inflation. I'm waiting on some good new about our deficit reduction campaigne. Let this BULL run. Snort.
For instance, average hourly earnings rose eight cents, or 0.5% to $16.70 from May and were up 3.9% from a year earlier, the fastest year to year growth since June 2001. So what, we are talking $0.08/hour. The combination of slowing growth and rising prices is typical for an economy in the middle of a business cycle. Inflation tends to peak after growth. This data reflects price increases of the past, rather than some new independent source of inflation. I'm waiting on some good new about our deficit reduction campaigne. Let this BULL run. Snort.
robo
Well-known member
TiCKed said:Excuse me? Where in there does it mention ANY actual investments? For all we can guess, they are money markets, or CD's with consistent and safe returns....or gold mutual funds....or in corporate bonds....or...large caps....or...or...
I think you missed the point of the advice...which is excellent, and advice you will get from any competent advisor.
Point is: With the limited funds you have to save and/or invest for retirement, and many tax advantaged savings/investment vehicles available, where should you put your money? (Where you actually INVEST the money once it's in the account is another question entirely).
Guess some would prefer that a mattress was listed?
Ticked,
Thanks! I guess you got my point.
The point is this: When I retire I hope to have around 200K in my Roth IRA's.
If I can earn around 5% to 7% yearly in fixed income that's around a 1000 a month tax free for the rest of my life.. That is plenty of beer money and a couple of yearly trips to Vegas. I pay no taxes on the money withdrawed and I can leave the balance to whomever I choose tax free.
roguewave,
I was only saying that for most people the Roth is currently a good deal.
The reason: I have talked with many people at work that make an easy 50K a year. They have a family and kids. They pay no taxes... Full refund of the money they pay in. Therfore, they get no tax advantage from the 401K. However, when they take the money out they pay taxes.
So in the long run the Roth could be the best deal. That was my point.
It's your choice where to put your Roth money. I have averaged around 10% in my Roth accounts since I started them. Not great, but I'm a conservative investor.
Maybe I shouldn't have mixed that advice with my trading of Proshares. I think many on this board are TSP Traders/Investors and that is why I mentioned the Proshares. There are many advanges as Tom has pointed out many times being able to get out of the Market anytime.
Take Care and Have a nice weekend!
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