Market Talk / July 2 - 8

[nnuut]

Who Knows?, better than high for sure!

Jobs Report Is Mixed Bag

By TSC Staff
7/7/2006 8:37 AM EDT

This will mean euphoria today, big gains for those invested, a great wailing and gnashing of teeth for those who bailed to G. But what about a few days from now? How weak can the economy appear to be before concern over earnings sets in? How many days of upside before we tank and how bad before sustained gains?

Someone on this board is claiming to have a crystal ball. If only it really worked!!

Bail out after Monday!?

The U.S. economy added 121,000 jobs in June, about 80,000 fewer than expected, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.6%, the Labor Department said Friday. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% in the month, slightly faster than forecast.
Friday's numbers are a mixed bag for stock investors, who are primarily concerned that the Federal Reserve will interpret strong economic data as reason for more interest rate hikes. But the salubrious impact of the relatively small gain in nonfarm payrolls is likely to be offset by evidence of wage inflation.
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10295485.html

 

[Wizard]

This will mean euphoria today, big gains for those invested, a great wailing and gnashing of teeth for those who bailed to G. But what about a few days from now? How weak can the economy appear to be before concern over earnings sets in? How many days of upside before we tank and how bad before sustained gains?

Someone on this board is claiming to have a crystal ball. If only it really worked!!

You would think there is a major election in November or something. :blink:

 

[Wizard]

Federal Reserve[/B] will interpret strong economic data as reason for more interest rate hikes. But the salubrious impact of the relatively small gain in nonfarm payrolls is likely to be offset by evidence of wage inflation.
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10295485.html

Yeah, there is no wage inflation because the high paying jobs are being outsourced and those folks are having to take a lower paying job.

Kool Aide Jimmy Jones Cramer runs that site.

Feds charter is the USD - and it is getting smoked right now.

We are a borrow to spend economy. Will not get indirect bids at treasury auctions if the USD keeps sinking.

 

[nnuut]

Yes, we shouldn't count our chickens before they hatch!

 

[James48843]

Over 40,000 more General Motors workers are taking buyouts in July & August. These are not early retirements- most of that figure are simply taking a one-time payout to loose their jobs, which paid around 50K to 70K a year, rather than take the risk of losing thier job through layoff with no additional compensation.

Now they will be sacking groceries at Walmart.

The new American economy. Paper, or plastic?

 

[nnuut]

A little turn to the + side is GOOD!

Thank jobs it's Friday
Stock futures up after June employment report, but AMD warning could weigh on tech stocks; oil hits record.
July 7 2006: 8:40 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks looked set for a positive start Friday after the closely watched jobs report showed a weaker labor market than Wall Street predicted, easing concerns about interest rates.
At 8:40 a.m. ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures pointed to a higher open for the major indexes.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/07/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

 

[Pilgrim]

Could be market up big this morning, sags in afternoon once this is digested!
-----------------------------------------
Last Update: 8:42 AM ET Jul 7, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. labor market was stronger in June than indicated by the tepid 121,000 growth in nonfarm payrolls.
In contrast to the weak payroll survey, the household survey showed robust job growth of 387,000 in June. The number of hours worked rose smartly, and average pay increased.

The number of people who've been out of work longer than six months dropped by 217,000 to 1.1 million. The labor force participation rate rose by a tenth of a percentage point to 66.2%.

Inflationary pressures mounted in June. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5% to $16.70. In the past year, earnings are up 3.9%, the biggest gain since June 2001.

The average work week increased to 33.9 hours, while total hours worked in the economy rose by 0.4%, equivalent to about 500,000 more full-time jobs.

 

[Wizard]

Yes, we shouldn't count our chickens before they hatch!

You got that right. This gives me a chance to short at higher levels.

Short em high.

 

[Wizard]

Over 40,000 more General Motors workers are taking buyouts in July & August. These are not early retirements- most of that figure are simply taking a one-time payout to loose their jobs, which paid around 50K to 70K a year, rather than take the risk of losing thier job through layoff with no additional compensation.

Now they will be sacking groceries at Walmart.

The new American economy. Paper, or plastic?

You want to supersize that to a triple cheeseburger?

BTW: The jobs lose at GM the average wage is $55 per hour plus 401K match, paid holiday, health care, etc, etc.

About a month ago I heard a lady ranting about how the plant she was working at in Michigan did not get a pay increase yet this year (I think she worked at Delphi). Her comment was "How are we suppose to live on $60 per hour?" That was a classic.

 

[Pilgrim]

You want to supersize that to a triple cheeseburger?

BTW: The jobs lose at GM the average wage is $55 per hour plus 401K match, paid holiday, health care, etc, etc.

About a month ago I heard a lady ranting about how the plant she was working at in Michigan did not get a pay increase yet this year (I think she worked at Delphi). Her comment was "How are we suppose to live on $60 per hour?" That was a classic.

We recently toured the Honda plant in southern Ohio. A marvel of efficiency and no unions.

Honda's position is stark and simple: if a union comes in, they will padlock the gates and walk away. After hearing about your delphi lady, who can blame them?

 

[Wizard]

Here is your job growth:

Thee ole mighty birth/death module.

Added 175K jobs. So the 121K you are being shrilled to about is actually NEGATIVE 54K. :nuts:

Gads, I can remember when a plus $500K job report was bad. :blink: (without the birth death module).

 

[Wizard]

We recently toured the Honda plant in southern Ohio. A marvel of efficiency and no unions.

Honda's position is stark and simple: if a union comes in, they will padlock the gates and walk away. After hearing about your delphi lady, who can blame them?

And when they open those plants. They have 10K plus people apply for 300 jobs making $10 per hour with minimum benefits. You do not even get paid holiday time until you worked there for 12 months.

Global economy. You just can not have one country making wages many many many times more then the next country.

It will even out and the ones that will feel the most shrinking pains will be Americans. I toured a plant in Thailand where they make $1.50 per hour and they work their buns off because they want to keep their "high paying job".

 

[Pilgrim]

It will even out and the ones that will feel the most shrinking pains will be Americans.

The Europeans will suffer more, especially the French. Their unions are much more powerful and their governments comitted to cradle-to-grave job security. They resist automation and outsourcing and pour into the streets at a suggestion that people might be let go if they aren't working hard enough. The result will be an artificially maintained system that will collapse, suddenly, completely, and violently. The knee-jerk reaction will be protectionism, and a downward spiral that will rapidly result in collapse of their house of cards.

 

[Wizard]

The Europeans will suffer more, especially the French. Their unions are much more powerful and their governments comitted to cradle-to-grave job security. They resist automation and outsourcing and pour into the streets at a suggestion that people might be let go if they aren't working hard enough. The result will be an artificially maintained system that will collapse, suddenly, completely, and violently. The knee-jerk reaction will be protectionism, and a downward spiral that will rapidly result in collapse of their house of cards.

They suffered in the 1920-1950s. They starting outsourcing their manufactoring jobs to us in the 1890s. We starting outsourcing our jobs in the late 1970s.

You will see what I mean when the social security/medicare/medicaid programs goes poof around 2020.

 

[Fivetears]

TSP Talk about a very confusing Jobs Report. The Department of Labor expected 121,000... gets a revised 92,000... the unemployment (jobless) rate stayed at a 4.6 percent. What happened to the other 29,000 workers they expected? Are they jobless? Perhaps the Department of labor intentionally INFLATED the initial figure to dress up the report. Guess if your going to send an ugly daughter to a dance... you better put her in a pretty dress. :notrust:

 

[Wizard]

You got that right. This gives me a chance to short at higher levels.[/IMG]

Darn, looks like people have figured out the short the B.S. "this is perfect" job number spike scam.

 

[Wizard]

TSP Talk about a very confusing Jobs Report. The Department of Labor expected 121,000... gets a revised 92,000... the unemployment (jobless) rate stayed at a 4.6 percent. What happened to the other 29,000 workers they expected? Are they jobless? Perhaps the Department of labor intentionally INFLATED the initial figure to dress up the report. Guess if your going to send an ugly daughter to a dance... you better put her in a pretty dress. :notrust:

What is even a better one. If your unemployment benefits run out and you have not found a job you just drop off and are no longer counted towards the unemployment number.

See everything is perfect.

 

[Fivetears]

The Americans were treated to a good look at some of the violence expected from unemployed / underemployed young men & women earlier this year; in France.

The Europeans will suffer more, especially the French. Their unions are much more powerful and their governments comitted to cradle-to-grave job security. They resist automation and outsourcing and pour into the streets at a suggestion that people might be let go if they aren't working hard enough. The result will be an artificially maintained system that will collapse, suddenly, completely, and violently. The knee-jerk reaction will be protectionism, and a downward spiral that will rapidly result in collapse of their house of cards.

 

[Fivetears]

My morning TSP market tickers look to be in V-Fib. What will Mr. Market do today?

 

[Fivetears]

Does the Department of Labor track and publicly post those figures; the number of Americans running their unemployment benefits to full term and being terminated? That would be something of a neat number to see, Mr. Wizard.

What is even a better one. If your unemployment benefits run out and you have not found a job you just drop off and are no longer counted towards the unemployment number.

See everything is perfect.