Market Talk / Jan. 8 - 14

[The_Technician]

Fridays reports

We will see retail and producer price index reports this Friday.....wonder what they will be.....they sure will have a steering effect on the market.....which ever way they swing....

 

[The_Technician]

Ratsmell

Why do I get that feeling that I smell a rat......its an old feeling but one you never forget......

 

[Cortez]

Why do I get that feeling that I smell a rat......its an old feeling but one you never forget......

What are you referring to Tech? Putting spin on the numbers on friday?

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP


Daily Edition
Jan. 11, 2006

​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and Fortunes.

Kingdom Yak.

Market Yak............ Socks regain footing. Nasdaq up 7 in a row.

Other Yak.............. Krude creeping up, even with lube in every bucket.

Doodles, and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:

S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at............... 1294.18, up -4.49
Money flow............ +0.116, up.
Stops.................... Alert: 1282, Trailing: 1270.
Averages............... +9.55, up. Long
Overbought/sold...... [70] 69.9 [30]

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 63.94, up +0.57
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-64 = worry, >64 = critical.

Tea leaves:........... Green.

Fortunes.

Position.............. 100G

 

[Birchtree]

Big Bopper on the way

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that with Elliot - and the basic price structure themselves - along with cumulative breadth and volume - you have to favor an upside resolution - possibly an explosive one. Be prepared for a three hundred point day on the horizon in the DJIA. There I said it. HEHE.

Dennis

 

[robo]

That would be impressive!!!!

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that with Elliot - and the basic price structure themselves - along with cumulative breadth and volume - you have to favor an upside resolution - possibly an explosive one. Be prepared for a three hundred point day on the horizon in the DJIA. There I said it. HEHE.

Dennis

GO GO Birchtree!!!

 

[learning]

I am looking at the I fund. When the fed stops interest rate hikes I hope others will start. Dollar drops and I make a ton of money.

 

[The_Technician]

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that with Elliot - and the basic price structure themselves - along with cumulative breadth and volume - you have to favor an upside resolution - possibly an explosive one. Be prepared for a three hundred point day on the horizon in the DJIA. There I said it. HEHE.

Dennis

I think it would be informative to hear your reasons for such statements Birch...........I personally would love to hear them myself.....for everything seems anti logical (investment wise) at the moment.....I would love to know Birchy....fill me in would ya.....I don't like messing around something that seems mystical.....I know the dollar is droppiing value and it should continue sometime in the future, but I don't believe it should be so sudden......or is there something else I'm overlooking......

As far as spin goes, no I'm not trying to make a spin on Fridays reports....I'm just curious of Fridays reports as your are......but something doesn't seem right and that smells like a rat to me....high energy costs, interest rates, business on the brink of not improving profits...yet the market goes up and up......good reason to step back and take a good looksee at risk......I said it before and I still believe it....they are running the market up early this year for an early sell off.....but Birch says otherwise.......and 50% of the analyst say things on both sides......

The real thing I do believe in is China and its economic growth.....now that is a real winner.....

 

[Cortez]

I think it would be informative to hear your reasons for such statements Birch...........I personally would love to hear them myself.....for everything seems anti logical (investment wise) at the moment.....I would love to know Birchy....fill me in would ya.....I don't like messing around something that seems mystical.....I know the dollar is droppiing value and it should continue sometime in the future, but I don't believe it should be so sudden......or is there something else I'm overlooking......

As far as spin goes, no I'm not trying to make a spin on Fridays reports....I'm just curious of Fridays reports as your are......but something doesn't seem right and that smells like a rat to me....high energy costs, interest rates, business on the brink of not improving profits...yet the market goes up and up......good reason to step back and take a good looksee at risk......I said it before and I still believe it....they are running the market up early this year for an early sell off.....but Birch says otherwise.......and 50% of the analyst say things on both sides......

The real thing I do believe in is China and its economic growth.....now that is a real winner.....

Tech I wasn't implying that you were trying to put a spin on Friday's reports - rather that the talking heads would turn it into a positive no matter what so that Wall Street can sell you and me more stocks. The stock market is the world's greatest legalized Ponzi scheme. Wait too long and there is no $$$ left for you. But ya gotta play the game or you will be left in the dust from inflation eating up your bank rate savings account.

 

[Wizard]

DOW may be at 11,000 however priced in gold the DOW is at 6050 when compared to the last time the DOW was at 11,000. To match gold the DOW would need to be 24,876 right now.

Cheap money makes everyone seem rich. Reality is much different.

 

[bkrownd]

Cheap money makes everyone seem rich. Reality is much different.

Cheap money, or expensive gold? Price it in terms of loaves of bread, bottles of Tapatio, or bunches of bananas and it isn't as bad.

 

[Wizard]

Cheap money becomes expensive money overtime.

Looks like the boys are having a rough time selling more debt at 1pm.

You are with us or against us, just buy our debt, please.

 

[Wizard]

Re: Grind to dust.

I am so glad my transfer from G fund to I fund did not go through yesterday and now I have to wait until today to transfer back to 100% G.

It just good to know I would of timed the market dead on.

Lost .15 per share yesterday and probably another .20 today. .35 turnaround in two days. Oh baby, it feels so good.

P.O.ed. No, not me. What is a couple K between friends? .

I just love watching the I fund chart dip and dip and dip. It is a great feeling.

Sort of like watching the I fund chart go up and up yesterday and I was sitting in the G fund.

Rant over.

 

[vectorman]

Hi Wizard, I confused about your comments. Are you saying that you did an ITF tuesday to move from G to I before 12est and it was confirmed, but its taking two days to process it. If so, something doesn't seem right. I have been doing alot of ITFs' for 2 years and in every case if the ITF was made before 12est and I saw the confirmation statement after clicking the submit button, the IFT was completed at COB that day. You can also verify your request by requesting an IFT after 12est and after going through all the procedures you'll get a statement that says "You have an interfund transfer request pending that should be effective as of close of business 01/(same day of request)/2006. You may change or cancel this request until 12:00 noon, eastern time that day. (Only one request can be effective each day.) " The next day I was locked in with my request from the day before. And if the IFT request wasn't confirmed for that day, you could cancel the request anytime before 12est the next day.

 

[Cortez]

That's good to know. So, for (real life) example, I went to 100%G before noon today and the IFT does not take effect tonight, then I can cancel that transfer before 12 noon tomorrow (friday)? I always thought that a transfer was final when confirmed.

 

[vectorman]

Go back after 12est and if you get that statement " You have.....request pending...effective...( this date is what's important if it shows the next day then it didn't go through for the same day as request and can be cancelled)..You may change or cancel....

 

[Wizard]

Go back after 12est and if you get that statement " You have.....request pending...effective...( this date is what's important if it shows the next day then it didn't go through for the same day as request and can be cancelled)..You may change or cancel....

I called that morning after the transfer did not go through and was told something like "normally within two business days".

Another member said they had the same problem the week prior.

Sort of like a reverse lottery. I even said I was going to get it coming and going. Missed .15 on the coming and going to miss the same as the going.

I will just drop it and stay 100% G. We just don't need the grief.

My ROTH is up 15% so far this month. I love ETFs.

 

[Wizard]

This is not a healthy pullback. We are all ready in a recession. The fed hikes lag reality. Sort of like how gold is lagging reality. In the 1970s it took them 10 months to figure out they were in a recession. The start of the year is a giant massive headfake. CNBC is getting great ratings thou. Every set of eyeballs is on that channel again. The flashy new graphics should of screamed "top" to you. Jimmy Jones Cramer saying "this is the best investment environment in six years" screams "TOP".

I hope you did not rush to fund your ROTH/IRA this year with all the "excitement". Chop, chop your legs, legs.

 

[Wizard]

All started by the change of FOMC minutes to:

Probably close to done.

What does probably mean?

Ahh, it means sucker.

 

[Cortez]

This is not a healthy pullback. We are all ready in a recession. The fed hikes lag reality. Sort of like how gold is lagging reality. In the 1970s it took them 10 months to figure out they were in a recession. The start of the year is a giant massive headfake. CNBC is getting great ratings thou. Every set of eyeballs is on that channel again. The flashy new graphics should of screamed "top" to you. Jimmy Jones Cramer saying "this is the best investment environment in six years" screams "TOP".

I hope you did not rush to fund your ROTH/IRA this year with all the "excitement". Chop, chop your legs, legs.

Most IRA accounts only allow you to go LONG. That is why I have an option friendly Roth IRA with OptionsXpress for this reason: I can buy puts to bet on a downside movement and buy calls for an upside movement. Also can use calendar spreads and volatility plays to capitalize on sideways trends. You cannot sell "short" in any IRA account by law, but puts are allowed. Funded yearly maximum last week.