Market Talk / Jan. 8 - 14

[Fivetears]

Bloomberg Bond Info

In the next four weeks, the government will sell two-, three- and 10-year notes, as well as 20-year TIPS, raising about $100 billion. It also will sell a 30-year bond for the first time in more than four years in February.

A surge in bond sales by companies are competing with Treasuries for investor dollars, triggering the 10-year note's biggest two-day slide since November on Jan. 10-11. Corporate bond sales totaled a record $35 billion for the week, according to Bloomberg data.

 

[robo]

The basic relationship; and I mean BASIC between the I fund profits; have been falling dollar = I fund gains.
Can anyone comment on why pulling out of I is a good thing when the Dollar falls??
Joe

JOVARN,

Tom is waiting for a pullback, Shark has been recommened building some cash and maybe adding/buying small caps soon. Also, many TA's are getting ready to short some overseas markets. It's not just the dollar. The world markets have had some run Brother!! Some TA's are pointing out to take some profits and get ready for a correction of these markets... Only time will tell if that is a good idea, but I do keep reading more about it... One TA I get is already shorting Germany and getting ready to short Japan and as you know both are in EAFE I Fund. If the US Markets correct the I Fund will also, and both should be bought after any pullback. NONE of the TA's that I follow are currently shorting the US markets, the trend is still up and they are mostly long!

 

[Wheels]

I think tomorrow's inflation report has the potential to move the market big time one way or the other.

Wrong again. Market traded in a very tight range today.

Dave
<><

 

[bkrownd]

Not even sure what the core is since my three biggest expenses are energy, food and owning a home.

My biggest expense is retirement savings. 45% of income last year. Then rent. Then food. Then airplane tickets. Those plane tickets were a killer, up 50% from the previous year. If that keeps up I won't be able to travel this year, because the plane is the only way off the fricken island.

 

[Wizard]

Dude, who stoled the yield curve?

 

[Birchtree]

Tax deduction for 2005

bkrownd,

Hope you kept your receipts - if there is a state sales tax on them - it is deductable.

My daughter is on O'ahu with the 25th Infantry Division. She has recently opened her TSP account - and is locked in to saving at a young age. How great is that? She'll definitely have a power account someday.

Dennis

 

[bkrownd]

Hope you kept your receipts - if there is a state sales tax on them - it is deductable.

Really? Airline sales tax deduction? Weird. There's an "other tax" line, but I'm not sure what the origin of that is.

 

[mlk_man]

Should be an interesting day.

Core does not include energy, food and renting vice owning a home.

Not even sure what the core is since my three biggest expenses are energy, food and owning a home.

LOL, I gotta remember you're a "seasoned" poster.

Note to self: copy his posts before he can edit ithem............

 

[tennisguy]

do you guys read the comments on this board and then decide where to put your money or do you come to this board with your mind already set and come on here to try to prove your point.
tennisguy

 

[Birchtree]

information - the great equalizer

I come to the board to deliver and receive information that may be applicable to an investment strategy. The more exposure from different view points the better an investor I try to be. Not making quick money is not always the strategic objective - sometimes a strategy requires a certain amount of individual sacrifice.

For example, I learned today that the 4-year cycle may have actually bottomed last October - a full year ahead of schedule. If that in fact did happen, I now will need to punt and reorganize my future objectives in my long and lonely search for the illusive top.

There is so much out there in tech land that suggests a classic third wave in progress - buckle up time.

 

[mlk_man]

I think you'll find both sides of the fence here tennisguy. You'll also find ones who tight rope the fence line. I come with a pre-determined decision based on what the numbers tell me, but I also read what others are saying here and elsewhere. I typically just post my views on the market in my account talk because I'm definitely not a market guru. I'll leave that to the "salespeople" on CNBC. I call them salespeople because it seems they're all pushing their own idea of where market is headed and everyone has a different opinion.

I find it interesting that a lot of the people who comment the most in this thread don't have their own account threads or don't post their moves anymore. I give more clout to the ones who put it out there for all to see.

Last I saw you had a pretty good return so I'm sure your not too worried about it.

The goal of this site was to help TSPer's take control of their own accounts and not just leave it up to chance. That being the case, all input is appreciated and used to make an informed decision. After all, isn't playing the market basically just a hypothetical guess? Unless of course you know something we don't.

 

[mlk_man]

OMG, Birchtree what happened to perma-bull?

 

[Birchtree]

Humility

Mlk Man,

Trying to remain humble and not attract any undue attention or bears. Sometimes the peace be still works best. But I do think we have a new bull market in progress - hope it becomes a secular move up. A good many technicals are starting to suggest a classic third wave in progress. I just don't know what year I'm in - 1995 or 2003. But I'm having lots of fun for a change. May possiblly last for a few months.

Dennis-perma bull #2

 

[Spaf]

Birch,

You got me on that one! How can you be humble and perma-bull #2 at the same time? Is this like Clark Kent and Superman. Spaf

 

[Spaf]

do you guys read the comments on this board and then decide where to put your money or do you come to this board with your mind already set and come on here to try to prove your point.
tennisguy

Tennisguy,

What Mlk_Man said was right! Kind of both! But again, thats the purpose of TSPTalk and this thread. Everyone's opinion is welcomed. We need to hear from Bears and the Bulls.

We just gotta stay within the TOS and, and, have fun!

 

[Show-me]

Tax deductions.

bkrownd,

Hope you kept your receipts - if there is a state sales tax on them - it is deductable.

Dennis

You mean all retail sales taxes are all ductable.
I gotta quite throw'n those receipts away.

 

[James48843]

What strength

Phew! What a week.

Even with the depressing news and numbers this week, and the run up, the markets continued to show incredible strength.

Maybe it's just me. Where I am, in Michigan, the economy is NOT looking good at all. Unemployment here has jumped to 6.6%, there are 35,000 FEWER jobs here than one year ago. Northwest Airlines outsourced thier mechaincs and 5,000 fewer of them are working. Wages are falling- NWA wanted a 23% pay cut on top of a 52% cut in the number of jobs; GM and Ford are flirting on the edge of bankruptcy, Delphi already went bankrupt and wanted a 60% pay cut for workers, there is no sector , services or manufacturing that is particularly bright. Energy prices are way up. My electric bill doubled from last year. Gas prices are way up. Propane costs here doubled. The war continues.

But the stock market keeps ticking away, and the dips are small.

We've had a great run up the last year, and I don't know where it is headed next.


The signs are all here for a solid downturn. Yet stock prices don't show any weakness.

Is it all from government spending? Is that was is keeping the economy afloat right now?

P.S.- government debt continues - new estimates show $400 + billion in new debt this year. Your share of the outstanding government debt is now over $27,400 per person for every man, woman, and child. How are we going to pay for this?

(I know- take out a loan, right?)

 

[Mike]

I approach the market from the standpoint of "less is more": make fewer moves, make more money. I bought in via a couple moves in October, and then I sold (I think it was three moves) in late December / January. Heck, I'm even in the F fund to some degree now.

Perhaps I'm slowly moving in Rokid's direction...

 

[teknobucks]

You mean all retail sales taxes are all ductable.
I gotta quite throw'n those receipts away.

u can write off either state income tax or state sales tax.
in most states that have a state income tax taking the write off for sales tax would produce a smaller return.

in florida we have no option but to take the sales tax option.

tekno

ps: always scan the parking lot at home depot / lowes / major malls for reciepts. the ones who paid cash are keepers

 

[teknobucks]

Phew! What a week.

Even with the depressing news and numbers this week, and the run up, the markets continued to show incredible strength.


The signs are all here for a solid downturn. Yet stock prices don't show any weakness.

Is it all from government spending? Is that was is keeping the economy afloat right now?

P.S.- government debt continues - new estimates show $400 + billion in new debt this year. Your share of the outstanding government debt is now over $27,400 per person for every man, woman, and child. How are we going to pay for this?

(I know- take out a loan, right?)

yes everyone and most any chart does expect a downturn short term....the big question is will the liquidity PUMP keep the salute to greenspan rally going??
Answer: HELL YES!

markets have historically rewarded outgoing fed chairs and beat the tar outta the new guy since burns left.
surprised u guys do not have a thread started on "helo Ben’s monetizing side show" which is about to start.
Watch the M3 this coming week