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Market Talk / April 9 - 15
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
On your mark, get set, ready....here come the Chinese
China said it will let companies and individuals make investments overseas for the first time. a policy shift that could temporarily ease immediate U.S. pressure on Beijing to revalue its currency, the yaun. The changes take effect May 1. Will post the full article from TWSJ on Birchtree account talk.
China said it will let companies and individuals make investments overseas for the first time. a policy shift that could temporarily ease immediate U.S. pressure on Beijing to revalue its currency, the yaun. The changes take effect May 1. Will post the full article from TWSJ on Birchtree account talk.
Birchtree
Well-known member
If you need a reason to run...
See http://financialsence.com article by Frank Barbera. He thinks because we had a 2.09% decline in the S&P 500 from 1314.07 to 1286.57 that an important medium term top is now in place. He feels a break below 740 on the R2K would add fuel to a building bearish outlook for the stock market. The OEX A/D line has undercut its now declining 200-day moving average. Frank is looking for a 15% correction in the SPX back to 1080 to 1100 area. He could very well be right - but I'll hold and see what happens. Another rock in the rock wall of worry. Do you think the Chinese will really come?
See http://financialsence.com article by Frank Barbera. He thinks because we had a 2.09% decline in the S&P 500 from 1314.07 to 1286.57 that an important medium term top is now in place. He feels a break below 740 on the R2K would add fuel to a building bearish outlook for the stock market. The OEX A/D line has undercut its now declining 200-day moving average. Frank is looking for a 15% correction in the SPX back to 1080 to 1100 area. He could very well be right - but I'll hold and see what happens. Another rock in the rock wall of worry. Do you think the Chinese will really come?
Birchtree
Well-known member
The stock market's recent behavior has been typical: moving to new highs then having the averages correct. That pattern has been making it frustrating for many investors because a strong trend has not taken hold. The recent sell-off that followed the new highs does not appear to have been too damaging technically considering that the volume and breadth figures did not reach extreme readings - but of course there is next week for another try.
The 14-day stochastic indicator for the S&P 500 and DJIA recently approached an oversold reading. That combined with the 25-day CBOE put/call ratio having remained well-above 80% lately, (this is contrary) should support the averages making new highs again. The market is considered to be in an uptren as long as the S&P 500 stays above 1260. Near term support is at 1285. It can take six to eight months for a market top to form, and new highs can be set during the process. Let's see if the Chinese show in force. They can buy everything I presently own.
The 14-day stochastic indicator for the S&P 500 and DJIA recently approached an oversold reading. That combined with the 25-day CBOE put/call ratio having remained well-above 80% lately, (this is contrary) should support the averages making new highs again. The market is considered to be in an uptren as long as the S&P 500 stays above 1260. Near term support is at 1285. It can take six to eight months for a market top to form, and new highs can be set during the process. Let's see if the Chinese show in force. They can buy everything I presently own.
I am looking to get back in the I fund as well . I got out a little too soon and missed the run to 19.70 I got out at 19.24. Looking forward to a dip and hoping for a decline Monday but as someone stated earlier some of the overseas markets are closed on Monday. I don't know how this will effect the I fund, but I've decided to get back in. COB Monday I will be 100% I
Birchtree
Well-known member
Caution is warranted
From Chris Pulava at http://financialsense.com/
The S&P 500 peaked both before the Fed Rate peak and the business cycle peak, peaking on average 7.5 months prior to the business cycle peak and peaking roughly 3.5 months prior to the Fed Rate peak. The markets peaked before rates peaked and bottomed before rates bottomed, proving the markets are anticipatory. The markets began to sell off months before rates peaked. That being the case. Caution is warranted as we are nearing the end of rates right now. We think that a break below 1268 may well be the warning sign that the cyclical bull cycle is over and that the secular bear market has resumed.
Chit, how can this happen, I'm not finished yet. I have plans to make at least $300,000 more dollars this year - and I don't want to do it on the short side. Hurry up Chinese to the rescue - I'm cycle riding into the October lows regardless.
Dennis - permabull #1
From Chris Pulava at http://financialsense.com/
The S&P 500 peaked both before the Fed Rate peak and the business cycle peak, peaking on average 7.5 months prior to the business cycle peak and peaking roughly 3.5 months prior to the Fed Rate peak. The markets peaked before rates peaked and bottomed before rates bottomed, proving the markets are anticipatory. The markets began to sell off months before rates peaked. That being the case. Caution is warranted as we are nearing the end of rates right now. We think that a break below 1268 may well be the warning sign that the cyclical bull cycle is over and that the secular bear market has resumed.
Chit, how can this happen, I'm not finished yet. I have plans to make at least $300,000 more dollars this year - and I don't want to do it on the short side. Hurry up Chinese to the rescue - I'm cycle riding into the October lows regardless.
Dennis - permabull #1
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Dennis,
Sorry, but the charts CP posted gave me a headache!
What are the fundamentals telling us (the big picture on the economy) ?
What are the indicators showing i.e., $SPX, EFA, IJR and AGG ?
What is a realiable fund manager saying i.e., RevShark ?
The 50 day moving average is still trending up. IMHO we still have some time in the box. However, if oil sets in a panic, all bets are off.
We love our big SUV's, super sized retail stores, cool restaurants, lawns without weeds and a good T time.
Rgds, and be careful!................
...................Spaf
Sorry, but the charts CP posted gave me a headache!
What are the fundamentals telling us (the big picture on the economy) ?
What are the indicators showing i.e., $SPX, EFA, IJR and AGG ?
What is a realiable fund manager saying i.e., RevShark ?
The 50 day moving average is still trending up. IMHO we still have some time in the box. However, if oil sets in a panic, all bets are off.
We love our big SUV's, super sized retail stores, cool restaurants, lawns without weeds and a good T time.
Rgds, and be careful!................
...................Spaf
Birchtree
Well-known member
Spaf,
Thanks for the moral support. Now that you have made a commitment on the bullish side of righteousness I feel much better - not so alone. Anybody ever try growing rice out your way? The Chinese just bought another 80 super jets to go with the previous 32. Where are they planning to travel to, the destination in the USA midwest - you can count on it. They'll be here as tourists soon enough. But first they need to demonstrate their fondness for capitalism by buying our stocks. I thought the transitions going on in pension plans would create demand - but the Chinese money will surpass that demand.
Dennis
Thanks for the moral support. Now that you have made a commitment on the bullish side of righteousness I feel much better - not so alone. Anybody ever try growing rice out your way? The Chinese just bought another 80 super jets to go with the previous 32. Where are they planning to travel to, the destination in the USA midwest - you can count on it. They'll be here as tourists soon enough. But first they need to demonstrate their fondness for capitalism by buying our stocks. I thought the transitions going on in pension plans would create demand - but the Chinese money will surpass that demand.
Dennis
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