Market Talk / April 9 - 15

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 11, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks down! Lube Woes. Rate Woes. Iran Woes. Just to name a few.
Other Yak................................Lube hovering near $69.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1286.57, dn -10.05
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.121, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+2.326, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........16.52, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 43.80 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................68.98, up +0.24
Oil Markers................................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow/Red.

Tin Box:
Position.....................................60% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: ----, Trail: ----.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Iran, oil, gas price gouging....interest rates....

F fund looks a little delayed again.

What do you mean Tech?

 

[Wheels]

Re: Iran, oil, gas price gouging....interest rates....

What do you mean Tech?

Tom, are you refering to this one statement, or everything he says?

Dave
<><

 

[tsptalk]

The one statement - F fund delayed?

 

[Wheels]

The one statement - F fund delayed?

I was trying to be a little funny. I guess it didn't work.

Dave
<><

 

[Spaf]

TSP: Putting in a IFT for 20% more stocks.
NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator was at -40.
S&P RSI was at 43.80 and the S-STO was at 16.52

ST: Using cash will probably add 20% to stocks.

Regards, and be careful!.............. .................Spaf

 

[The_Technician]

Re: Iran, oil, gas price gouging....interest rates....

What do you mean Tech?

meaning I jumped the gun on the F fund.....I have data that indicates its close to finding bottom and turn around.....as it did this past Nov 4 and March of last year....we're real close.....I believe its going to take another small drop and then find the bottom....

I thinking today is a possible good day for the S or C fund.....but I wouldn't stay in either one for a extended period of time....I will be watching until late before I decide to make my move.....the funds at this point look to take a bit of a dive after their major peak....they seldom realize a good rebound until they drop further a week or two later .......so I will be watching the market action closely this morning...

 

[The_Technician]

Bulls and Bears

See anothers market outlook...
http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/11/markets/markets_feature/index.htm

:cheesy:

 

[JOVARN]

To see full story
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2006/pi20060412_417960.htm

The valuation of the S&P 500 remains attractive, in our view. At 16.3 times trailing 12-month operating earnings, it remains 17% below the average trailing p-e of 19.7 times since 1988, when S&P first began tracking operating results. Even without a p-e expansion between now and the end of the year, $84.34 in projected earnings for the S&P 500 would translate into a yearend price of 1,375. We therefore recommend staying the course with equities.

Small caps may do a bit better

 

[The_Technician]

S and C funds

We recently set some new peaks in the funds of late...

After further review of the fund returns in Aug and March timeframes of last year, there is little reason to get a quick trigger finger for a couple of weeks on either one.....even though they are low today.....I believe they will settle down at least another two weeks....this of course in just my opinion....

U may have your own......:blink:

 

[Master]

Trade Deficit in U.S. Shrinks to $65.7 Billion as Gap With China Narrows

The U.S. trade deficit shrank more than expected to $65.7 billion in February, led by a decline in Chinese imports that may be temporary and do little to ease demands for sanctions.

Source: Bloomberg

 

[tsptalk]

I was trying to be a little funny. I guess it didn't work.
<><

Ah, now I see it. I read the the first few words and started responding. Took an extra day to see the humor. :nuts:

 

[oldschool]

Hi folks, back from travels, well, getting married that is.

Here's a link I found interesting, if a bit "over the top", discussing the Iranian Oil Exchange, what it might mean for US dollar, and why some folks think (spectacularly incorrectly, I'll suggest) the US concerns with Iran aren't really the nuke ones, rather they're about oil being traded in Euros in the future.

www.worldpress.org/Mideast/2314.cfm#down

 

[Birchtree]

rescue me

Jovarn,

Thanks, another excellent read. Onward and upward.

 

[The_Technician]

Can't jump

if the market can't jump from here maybe we should term it a "White Man" day....everyone knows the saying "White men can't jump" right???:embarrest: Yea right.....but maybe the term fits the situation....:nuts: :cheesy:

 

[tsptalk]

Hi folks, back from travels, well, getting married that is.

Welcome back oldschool, and congratulations!

Tom

 

[Birchtree]

This could be a "White Lady" day

Our friend Abbey Joseph Cohen on NBR says everything will be alright and that fair value on the S&P 500 is 1400.

There has been significant damage from a technical standpoint in three days - but that only encourages the humble bulls as a necessary endeavor. Now we have another wall of worry to work with. Sharp and short corrections are key characteristics of strongly trending patterns and now we have soild earnings on the horizon and the S&P is poised to bounce off of support. Allah, I hope today holds. Have to keep an eye on the A/D line to see if it goes below its 40 day EMA. Protecting my cheeks from the potential blast off that is coming - kinda like sitting on your helmut.

 

[The_Technician]

Or maybe

Cohen is just trying to hold up the market for time to sell off stock.... he does have a "national audience"......what a market influence that would have.....of course he could be doing something else.....the speculation stands....

 

[Birchtree]

Brother where art thou?

The Technician,

Can you smell the top off in the distance or have we already been there done that? I think we gots lot more upside work to do before the manure smell is overwhelming. Waiting on the next Hindenburg Omen to occur.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[The_Technician]

Right here milking a cow

Permabull.....well I guess I have run it in the ground, but the economics is stifling....meaning its costing alot to live this day and time ... corporations may be making money at it but its going to come to an end sometime...it can't last forever....inflation, whether the govt wants to admit it is amongst us heavily.....I believe its mostly due to the govt printing greenbacks to "position" personal income.....

Wished I didn miss out on last month or so, I saw it coming but I couldn't feel confident that I could get to the market and internet on a daily basis....I have the same feeling now as then.....dollar strenghtening and so forth....do we have a "White man" situation...that's the question...

I would think that the economy/market needs a rest for a while and I believe that the F fund will hit bottom sometime in the next month ....good timing, the right time.....

Yeah I keep ringing the bell, but I think its time has come....of course, you never really know do you???