Market Talk / April 9 - 15

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
April 9, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Last week had the good and the bad. Will this April be a best month?!
Other Yak...............................10 yr bond yield went up to 4.963. Energy commodity slightly rising.
Jester Yak..............................You could have waited till you were out of the elevator!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,295.50, up +0.67, for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........-0.051, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+4.430, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........64.18, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 49.27 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................67.39, up +0.76, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Gray.

Tin Box:
Position...................................40G, 05F, 25C, 15S, and 15I
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert: {1306}, Trail: 1,294

TSP (week ending)......G=11.29..F=10.57..C=14.13..S=17.73..I=19.55
....(1 week past)........G=11.28..F=10.61..C=14.12..S=17.85..I=19.24
....(2 week past)........G=11.27..F=10.68..C=14.20..S=17.60..I=19.12
....(3 week past)........G=11.26..F=10.68..C=14.25..S=17.48..I=19.15
....(4 week past)........G=11.25..F=10.62..C=13.96..S=17.07..I=18.50

 

[Birchtree]

As a reminder for a new week - there has never been a time that the market has topped with the Transports in an uptrend - not to mention new all-time highs every other week. Staying in the bull pen 100%.

Dennis - permabull #1 strictly by default.

 

[Birchtree]

An unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen occured 4/7/06.

See this: http://www.safehaven.com/article-4937.htm

And now we have an unconfirmed H.O. signal, here at the start of the "bad" six months of the year, from mid-April through October, waiting for one more signal to join it.

 

[Skip]

Looks like to going to go down some more .
When the market goes up and my personel stock plays are showing weakness its time to take note...
Skip
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This index broke through the week's lower trend line at 11,180, which aided the day's selling. However, the index closed the day above the major 11,100 level, which continues to be the major fulcrum between bulls and bears. Currently, this level is serving as a clear support level over the past month of trading. Look for the index to test this level soon. A solid break with follow-through could really send this index tumbling even further, likely to the 11,000 zone. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]However, if the index can continue holding above 11,100, look for continued sideways movement to be seen within the consolidation that has formed from 11,115 to 11,170. An upside break through 11,170 could actually make for a nice reaction rally.

[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com [/FONT]

 

[Birchtree]

Where did all the BEARS come from?

Everywhere I look there is a bear - even some in drag.
My investing strategy is basically very simple: What's easy to do is almost always the wrong thing to do. And what's hard to do is almost always what makes you money. There is so much negativity circulating around that a contrarian has to be BULLISH - now when they all throw in the towel and start praising the Dow on high - that's when I'll step back. Contemplating easing up on the internationals - the hard thing to do - see what I mean? Anyway, perhaps this will be a good week for a roaring come back.

 

[ocean]

Birchtree,

I'm with you. I have 100% stock allocation before noon this morning.

Ocean

 

[TiCKed]

The only thing keeping me from joining hands with you Bulls is international politics. If anything is going to "inspire" that 10% pull-back that some think just MUST happen, Iran and Oil may do it.

But, I'm hanging in there for now....ready to jump out at the first sign of the cliff.

 

[Birchtree]

Ocean,

That's right - you are now in Shark waters - good for you.

 

[Birchtree]

If we eventually drop a hot one on Iran

Ticked,

the market might gain 10% - discounting the future peace. The stock market is nothing if not perverse. It's time for the fly boys to earn their grade. We have everything on the ground in Iraq to support massive intervention. That was a great NY Times article Robo posted.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 10, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks mixed! Woes and worries over lube and rates.
Other Yak................................US Iran spiff spikes lube near $69.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1296.62, up +1.12
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.049, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+3.724, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........40.00, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 50.01 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................68.74, up +1.35
Oil Markers................................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position.....................................60% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: ----, Trail: 1294

 

[ocean]

Ocean,

That's right - you are now in Shark waters - good for you.

I would say I am in Tree lands and Shark waters if you know what I mean.

Thanks

Ocean

 

[Birchtree]

Those old time metals

If Alcoa is a harbinger - of other earnings to surface - it might be time to buckle up. This is a short week so light the fuse and rocket up. Good profits to be made.

 

[Spaf]

Alcoa reports doubled income!​

RE: http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/10/news/companies/alcoa.reut/index.htm

Regards, and be careful!................. .....................Spaf

 

[Show-me]

Now I'm getting scared. Not much activity on the MB. I've seen this before and it's not a good omen. Come on guy's and gal's let's hear some chatter out there.

 

[ayla]

What's MB?

 

[FundSurfer]

What's MB?

MB = message board

 

[Dave M]

I think he means message board. I will break the ice. Iran is heating up, leading to higher oil. The Italian market is in turmoil due to a close election -- you know those Italians -- so Europe is questionable today. All we have on our side is favorable earnings reports.

The net result should be another mixed day today.

Dave

 

[The_Technician]

Iran, oil, gas price gouging....interest rates....

Every more likely to support a poor upcoming 6 months....

:blink: I've been getting predicted dates of 13 April thru Middle of May for a negative happening......what say u??? F fund looks a little delayed again.....but I expect it will come back at the right time....

 

[bkrownd]

We're off to a great start to my contribution day. Shares are getting cheaper by the minute.

 

[Show-me]

MB = message board

Yes!