Market Talk / April 16 - 22

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
April 16, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................The Calm!... Will it storm, or will it be sunny?
Other Yak...............................We had a pullback to near support. However, rising bond yields, lube, and rates are putting pressure on equities.
Jester Yak..............................Thursday's candlestick was a Doji of mild bullish indecision.
Economic Yak..........................Economic Calandar: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,289.12, dn -6.38, for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........-0.129, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+0.611, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........16.00, level.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 45.70 [30]

NASDAQ McClellen Oscillator.......-16, increasing: http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html

Lube (NYM) Closed at................70.82, up +3.43, for the week. NYMEX:

Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow (caution).

Tin Box:
Position...................................20G, 00F, 40C, 20S, and 20I
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: ----. Trail: ----.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.30..F=10.55..C=14.07..S=17.60..I=19.33
....(1 week past)........G=11.29..F=10.57..C=14.13..S=17.73..I=19.55
....(2 week past)........G=11.28..F=10.61..C=14.12..S=17.85..I=19.24
....(3 week past)........G=11.27..F=10.68..C=14.20..S=17.60..I=19.12
....(4 week past)........G=11.26..F=10.68..C=14.25..S=17.48..I=19.15

 

[robo]

Two free TA's that have above average weekly analysis of the stock market.
This is only for those that make frequent trades, or for those that like to read market predictions based on Technicals and Sentiment. However, as we all know only Mr. Market knows for sure. The Market humbles the best of them frequently.

Good Trading/Investing!!

Which direction is the next trend up or down?

http://www.safehaven.com/article-4979.htm

http://www.safehaven.com/article-4978.htm


60% of the TA's I follow are currently in cash
40% Shorting or long ETF's

( The 60% are trend traders and this narrow trading range has many of them on the sidelines waiting for the next trend. We have been in this narrow trading range for sometime now. The next trend could be up or down, but the longer we go without one the bigger the move will be!!! This is why many are in cash they don't want to get it wrong. Risk/Reward is currently high.

I'm still in the I Fund waiting to see if we can get a rally after last weeks decline. I will sell into strength again.

 

[Birchtree]

Dow oversold and at support

Good article by Arthur Hill:

http://stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/cww20060416m.html

 

[learning]

opps

 

[The_Technician]

C,S and F Funds

Recent observations show that the C and S are priced below a mid-term average ....and have been peaked out for an extended period of time...usually when this situation occurs you should expect the funds to correct....looking for the dollar to again gain strength.....for a short period again...

F fund looks like it could find its bottom over the next week or so.....so I will be watching it for any opportunities....

Have you priced a truck or auto lately.....the dealerships are real proud of them of late....real proud....I saw a $50,000 GMC truck yesterday.....yep, $50,000 truck....it might have been decked out, but its not worth that much, maybe $25,000 or $26,000.....can you imagine a $50,000 GMC truck!!!! Them union workers must really be making it big time.....!! I know the salespersons are......

 

[JOVARN]

Them union workers must really be making it big time.....!! I know the salespersons are......

Cooperate America finally succeeded, they divided and conquered working Americans by pitting Blue Collar workers against White collar workers. Now White collar non union workers are experiencing the same issues which stimulated the union movement.
Fair wage, Secure Jobs, Pensions, and hours of work and everyone’s problems. The price of cars has nothing do with union workers. It’s all politics and the CEO’s are laughing all the way to the bank. I don’t believe the 50K American workers who are being laid off over the next few years in the Auto industry would share your opinion.

 

[The_Technician]

Market tenacity

It looks a little weak this morning, wonder what that means for the week.....

I'm expecting the dollar to strengthen a bit for the near term....it may not affect the I fund much though.....F fund is too early to jump in though....I think its got another week or so....

:blink:

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 17, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Jail-Break! Peasants panic! Krude escapes from can! Horseman Krude mounted horse Fillerup after devouring all the oats.
Other Yak................................Lube spook at 7 1/2 month high.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1285.33, dn -3.79
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.132, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............-0.260, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........16.72, flat.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 43.25 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................71.98, up +1.16
Oil Markers................................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow

Tin Box:
Position.....................................80% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: ----. Trail: ----.

 

[Birchtree]

oil is lighter than water

I've been contemplating punching out of some of my profitable oil stocks, but they don't make it easy - they are keeping my portfolio afloat for the time being. But I know prudence is the better part of valor - so I'll wait a few more weeks and end up selling after the correction - right!!!. Anyway, I'm waiting on the last Fed meeting minutes to be released to see if there is any indication as to their future plans. A good upside should be on the way.

Dennis

 

[Birchtree]

make room

I've noticed a good number of participants are darn close to being all the way in - misery always loves company. If you can tolerate a little suffering things will work out fine. I did notice from looking at the intraday movement of the DJU index that some body was doing some heavy buying around the 1500 hours mark - ran the index up impressively. Maybe utilities have bottomed without telling anyone and will now begin to lead to the upside - that would be a nice surprise. They've essentially gone down since November'05 from a high of 437 I believe. They do have a history of leading the market.

 

[roguewave]

Re: oil is lighter than water

I've been contemplating punching out of some of my profitable oil stocks, but they don't make it easy - they are keeping my portfolio afloat for the time being. But I know prudence is the better part of valor - so I'll wait a few more weeks and end up selling after the correction - right!!!. Anyway, I'm waiting on the last Fed meeting minutes to be released to see if there is any indication as to their future plans. A good upside should be on the way.

Dennis

Why would you sell your oil stocks? We're in the initial stages of this trend. Try not to talk or over think yourself out of a winning decision.

 

[Spaf]

A Simple trading system​

This subject was in a post, in a linked article the other day..... Thanks!.... It was worth researching...

Attached is the [$SPX] chart from Stockcharts2. Added is the RSI, MACD Histogram, Bollenger Bands and %B.

.....The simple trading system is to buy when %B is below 0.1, and sell when %B is above 0.9.....

Careful! You want to take the fundanentals (economy) and indicators together. I did say indicators; more than just one. The RSI gives overbought/sold indications, and the MACD Histogram like the Bollinger is a trend indicator.

>>On the bollinger bands....Notice what happens when pricing (the HLC bars) penetrate a band (up or down)!

>>Do you get a better picture when you compare the MACD Hist and the %B together?

The article was good, because it added one more indicator tool to the bag of tools we already have. However, having just one indicator is like having just a screw driver in the bag . Ignoring fundamentals is like not having the technical manual.

Rgds, and be careful!.................... ......................Spaf​

 

[The_Technician]

reflection

Rising oil prices and a weaker-than-expected Fed manufacturing survey did not cheer up equity investors. The Dow Jones Industrials as well as the Nasdaq composite index decreased 0.6 percent today. The S&P500 and the Russell 2000 posted 0.2 percent declines for the day. According to market pundits, earnings growth is good these days, but the $70 crude oil is dampening expectations. In the upcoming week, about 120 of the 500 S&P companies will be reporting earnings.

Although higher crude oil prices can be inflationary, bond yields fell 3 - 4 basis points today across the maturity spectrum on the weaker-than-expected Empire State survey figures. Bond market psychology has shifted somewhat in that the Fed may not need to raise rates two more times, and that maybe the May rate hike will be the last one in this cycle. Since the FOMC minutes are coming out tomorrow afternoon, there is no point getting wedded to a theory about "one and done" or "twice more". Either is a reasonable possibility. :blink:

 

[The_Technician]

Morning indication

Already looks like the day is weak....strength yesterday was with selling, I had been expecting a bit of a comeback today in the C and S funds....but the implusive buying is starting out bland....still expecting a bit of a comeback for a few days, but it will be a surpise if the week is productive....

dollar value seems to be weak at the moment, expecting that to change soon for a short period ...could be about a week.......

 

[mlk_man]

There was an increase in buying volume towards the end of the session yesterday. As the Wiz would say, watch the "spin" please...............

 

[vectorman]

There was an increase in buying volume towards the end of the session yesterday. As the Wiz would say, watch the "spin" please...............

" increase in buying volume " the thunder of hooves as the herd is running in????? Or perhaps the Smart money???

 

[Birchtree]

Jump back Jack

This is what I like and it's still early for another 100 points on top of the current +131. Vectorman, you nailed it. Smart money and the Herd in unison.

 

[James48843]

Re: Jump back Jack

Smart money and the Herd in unison.

I think I'll ride one more day and see what it looks like in the morning. I'm currently 40% S fund, 60% I fund, and riding nicely today. If it closes out green, and tomorrow continues green, I'll stay in. But the ride up the last couple days has been nice, and I may just jump back out on the next sign of weakness. Better to lock in a nice gain that to see it fall.

I am following closely, but the next couple days will be critical. Longer term I see oil prices killing the market.

 

[nnuut]

BEWARE!!!!! There is a really good chance that there may be some heavy Profit Taking tomorrow!:notrust:

 

[Soldat]

No profit taking until we blow the roof off of the previous highs.