Gumby's Account Talk

[Gumby]

More government manipulation of the market ?

An auction of $27 billion of 7-year notes attracted strong demand, pressuring U.S. Treasury bond yields. The auction completed this week's sales of Treasury coupons, with all three auctions seeing solid demand.

Source

Demand from whom is the question.

Is the strong demand from the FED buying up the treasury paper at an inflated price in order the bond yields down? 10 yr treasury yield down to 3.546% down 0.139% today. That is a huge move. Yields were just above 4% about two weeks ago. Something smells here. Quanitative easing my A$$. More government intrusion into the markets. I guess the FED can pay whatever they want for bonds since the gov. have virtually an unlimited supply of paper and ink. What is going to happen when existing bond holders hit the sell button due to the high artificial price of bonds? This game surely is not sustainable.

Also, the S&P 500 was up big today. Normally the yields on 10 yr treasuries would have risen today with the rise in equity markets. Dumping $27 Bil worth of 7 year notes on the market and the price of 10 yr going up just doesn't make sense. That is a HUGE supply of bonds.

 

[Gumby]

Magic Numbers

Net loss of 467,000 jobs in June, compared with a revised loss of 322,000 jobs in May.

The June job losses were also far worse than the forecast of a loss of 365,000 jobs by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The unemployment rate rose for the 9th straight month, climbing to 9.5% from 9.4%, and hitting a 26-year high. Economists had been expecting that the unemployment rate would hit 9.6%.

Something is up with the unemployment rate. Economists were predicting a 9.6% unemployment rate with 102,000 fewer jobs lost. Official numbers claim 9.5%. Is this an attempt to try and keep the unemployment rate less than double digits from future job losses. How does the gov come up with their unemployment numbers? Are they applying a seasonal factor?

Looks to me like the green shoots are starting to dry out and turn brown:worried:

 

[Steadygain]

Magic Numbers

Net loss of 467,000 jobs in June, compared with a revised loss of 322,000 jobs in May.

The June job losses were also far worse than the forecast of a loss of 365,000 jobs by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The unemployment rate rose for the 9th straight month, climbing to 9.5% from 9.4%, and hitting a 26-year high. Economists had been expecting that the unemployment rate would hit 9.6%.

Something is up with the unemployment rate. Economists were predicting a 9.6% unemployment rate with 102,000 fewer jobs lost. Official numbers claim 9.5%. Is this an attempt to try and keep the unemployment rate less than double digits from future job losses. How does the gov come up with their unemployment numbers? Are they applying a seasonal factor?

Looks to me like the green shoots are starting to dry out and turn brown:worried:

As bad as it sounds - everything you've shared is based on 'smoke and mirrows' math; and no one does it better and no one else has been able to juggle the numbers to give a better presentation.

If everything were accurately factored in - things would look a lot worse and the unemployment rate would reflect a much higher number.

This is all the more why I am content with G Fund because in the long run I have to believe a rally can not be sustained under these conditions.

 

[Gumby]

As bad as it sounds - everything you've shared is based on 'smoke and mirrows' math; and no one does it better and no one else has been able to juggle the numbers to give a better presentation.

If everything were accurately factored in - things would look a lot worse and the unemployment rate would reflect a much higher number.

This is all the more why I am content with G Fund because in the long run I have to believe a rally can not be sustained under these conditions.

Steady,

You are correct. I don't see how this rally has lasted as long as it has. PPT or Government Sachs pumping the market?

 

[Fireant]

Steady concur... hope to pick some spots if able and LUCKY.... DA FIREANT

 

[Gumby]

The market churned all day today and the S&P 500 ended up positive near the close. PPT at work? The Willshire 4500 (S fund tracker) ended up at -0.77%. Does the PPT only buy the S&P 500 stocks/contracts? :nuts:

 

[Gumby]

Anyone get a letter like this from CHASE?

Dear Gumby,

We are pleased to let you know that we are making changes to your payment due date to give you additional time to pay. Beginning with your July or August statement, you will have an additional 5 days to submit your payment.

Our records indicate that you may use some type of automated payment service to send your monthly payments. Please review your July or August credit card statement for your new extended due date and if necessary, make changes to your current payment arrangements......

I guess CHASE wants me to carry a balance?
Last week, I received a letter from AMEX that they were closing my account that I had with them for 15 years since I hadn't used it enough in the last two years.
These credit card companies have gem of a business model.:nuts:

 

[Gumby]

CIT shares jump on hope for aid, restructuring

More

I think they will probably get bailed out again......but not enough to buy their rotten stock.

 

[Birchtree]

CIT has over 700 small companies that they lend to - I'll take the shares you don't want.

 

[Gumby]

CIT may get their "bailout" after all. The conspiracy theorist in me somehow thinks this bailout has the PPT or FED working behind the scenes to funnel the money their way.

S&P500 up over 1% and the bond market both up today. Doesn't make sense to me.:nuts: Looks like the bulls are goring the bears today.:blink:
We are on track for the highest S&P close this year.

 

[Steadygain]

CIT may get their "bailout" after all. The conspiracy theorist in me somehow thinks this bailout has the PPT or FED working behind the scenes to funnel the money their way.

S&P500 up over 1% and the bond market both up today. Doesn't make sense to me.:nuts: Looks like the bulls are goring the bears today.:blink:
We are on track for the highest S&P close this year.

There is nothing more beautiful than riding a rising Wave.

Give Stella the 20 minute super massage and sweet talk treatment for me - and I do the same thing with Ella for you

 

[Gumby]

There is nothing more beautiful than riding a rising Wave.

Give Stella the 20 minute super massage and sweet talk treatment for me - and I do the same thing with Ella for you

Hey Steady,

Stella is getting another haircut this week. She went fishing with me this weekend and really enjoyed jumping in the water and growling at the fish when I reeled in. I will give her a good bath and towel dry. She really likes that....probably more than eating. Give Ella a treat for me. Stella really likes the bacon strip snacks and I am sure Ella would too.

 

[Gumby]

I would think the S&P breaking above 975 will make the shorts squirm. The market could be in for a rocket ride this afternoon if the shorts barf positions and cover.......or will profit taking kick in? I am only 1/3 invested in stock funds and didn't see this rally coming. Maybe the rally is due to BHO's infomercial last night?

Index Value:974.65Trade Time:11:20AM ETChange:

20.58 (2.16%)Prev Close:954.07Open:954.07Day's Range:947.75 - 975.4252wk Range:666.79 - 1,313.15

 

[Gumby]

Back to 0.00% for the year. What a wild ride:nuts:

 

[WorkFE]

Nice job. I hope COB today your on the positive side.

 

[KevinD]

Back to 0.00% for the year. What a wild ride:nuts:

Good for you! I hope to be there soon.

 

[Gumby]

Thanks WorkFE and KevinD

I am still having trouble with all the Gov manipulaion of the markets and getting more nervous everyday. I missed the big Rally but have made it back to square one.
Good luck.

 

[Gumby]

S&P 500 is up 1% and just printed a 1070. 10 yr bond is up also (yield down). Is the smart money dumping stocks and buying bonds?....or is the PPT pumping money into both?

 

[Birchtree]

The small guys like me are buying hand over fist - can you smell the bull manure.

 

[JTH]

S&P 500 is up 1% and just printed a 1070. 10 yr bond is up also (yield down). Is the smart money dumping stocks and buying bonds?....or is the PPT pumping money into both?

Gumby I have no clue what is going on, I can say I don't trust this bid, I just can't say why...