Gumby's Account Talk

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Steadygain said:
Well Gumby it must feel pretty good to watch the rest of us franticly running here and there trying desperately to stop this loss and grab this gain....

...while you effortlessly sail to the very top :D

So with only 1 month left -- where should I be?

I think it's pretty cool :cool::cool: the way you and WINDHUNTER kind of held back until the end.

Anyway -- Great Job !! ;)
Click to expand...

Thanks Steady,
I have had a dismal year but have been hopeful for a good finish. I would be satisfied to outperform the G fund with the year so far. This has been a strange year with the government seemingly making the market jump according to where they and GS want to throw the taxpayer $$$$$. No wonder GS can average a $100Mil trading profit per day. I think the bond price has about topped out and thye stock funds might have a good month. I am not to optimistic about next year. I don't see the unemployed number getting better any time soon. The S&P seems grossly inflated according to where historic norms are. Good luck my friend. You have a great year going. Double digit returns are sweet.
 
Gumby said:
Now if only I could turn it into a great year. The last two years have been the most difficult to have any return except a negative one for me.
Good luck.:)
Click to expand...

I'll tell you what you ann't the only one who thinks it's been a tough 2 years :D Not only that, but it's been tough for me to adjust to the IFT limits too. But the good news is what I've learned more in the last 2 years will help in the next 20. :)
 
What is wrong with this? Irrational exhuburance?

Wells Fargo is selling shares at $25 apiece to help repay $25 billion in government bailout funds.
The share price is a 1.9 percent discount from Monday's closing price of $25.49.
They are selling 426 million shares of common stock. The bank had 4.69 billion shares outstanding as of Oct. 30. So this is about a 10% dilution.
Wells Fargo shares hit $26.00 this morning.

So lets see....you dillute the stock 10% and get a 4% rise in share price.
.....And yes, I do have a short position on WFC.....kinda makes me scratch my head.:nuts:
 
Gumby said:
Went 50%C and 50%S today....getting away from the I fund.
Click to expand...

Great minds think alike !! ;)

Thanks for the 'pic'!! It looks like she really enjoyed the water. It's just so amazing how happy and full of life they are when they get the attention they need. Without that they get so bored.

Well I hope we pick up at least another 5% before the year's over.
 
Steadygain said:
Great minds think alike !! ;)

Thanks for the 'pic'!! It looks like she really enjoyed the water. It's just so amazing how happy and full of life they are when they get the attention they need. Without that they get so bored.

Well I hope we pick up at least another 5% before the year's over.
Click to expand...

I just about went 100% S.....probably should have taken the chance.
Stella really liked the ocean.....she was just a few months old then.

Hope I get the 5% and you get twice that my friend.:) Take care.
 
Something doesn't seem right.

Tell me why if we are indeed in the leg of a full blown bull market and the S&P 500 hit a multi month high today at the close, would the F fund trend only slightly lower today (about 1.5 cents or -0.11%)? What gives.... or is this the new normal? Which market participants are still buying bonds as the S&P500 soars to a record close? Are some big boyz not trusting this rally in equities? Or are we close to printing a short term top in the S&P 500?
 
The charts appeared to indicate a "bounce" for this week........ looks to me like we may close below 10,000 on the DOW unless Uncle Sugar and the PPT comes through at the close.:blink:
 
Gumby said:
Something doesn't seem right.

Tell me why if we are indeed in the leg of a full blown bull market and the S&P 500 hit a multi month high today at the close, would the F fund trend only slightly lower today (about 1.5 cents or -0.11%)? What gives.... or is this the new normal? Which market participants are still buying bonds as the S&P500 soars to a record close? Are some big boyz not trusting this rally in equities? Or are we close to printing a short term top in the S&P 500?
Click to expand...


Looks like January 19th was a least a short term top........ and it looks like the bond market did partially indicate something was happening that day. JTH, did you notice anything else abnormal in the charts on Jan 19th?
 
Gumby said:
Looks like January 19th was a least a short term top........ and it looks like the bond market did partially indicate something was happening that day. JTH, did you notice anything else abnormal in the charts on Jan 19th?
Click to expand...

21 Jan got the first sell signal from the Big 3 (Transports/NASDAQ/SPX) 15 minute 50/200 SMA Death Cross.

Havent paid much attention to bonds. Yields appear to be falling, but it's a slow fall. AGG from recent peak to recent bottom has retraced 61.8% to the upside and appears to be trading sidways from this level.

I'm thinking a fall to SPX 1013 would be nice. I'm playing it safe in the G-fund, no need for me to be a hero and get sucked down the rabbit hole...
 
JTH said:
21 Jan got the first sell signal from the Big 3 (Transports/NASDAQ/SPX) 15 minute 50/200 SMA Death Cross.

Havent paid much attention to bonds. Yields appear to be falling, but it's a slow fall. AGG from recent peak to recent bottom has retraced 61.8% to the upside and appears to be trading sidways from this level.

I'm thinking a fall to SPX 1013 would be nice. I'm playing it safe in the G-fund, no need for me to be a hero and get sucked down the rabbit hole...
Click to expand...


Jason, I was hoping for a slight bounce today and tomorrow. I was thinking about bailing out of stock funds if we were headed toward 1085. I may have to regroup and bail anyway. I really don't want to ride down to 1013.
Did the death cross for the S&P only hit on the 15 minute chart- Jan 21st?
 
Gumby said:
Jason, I was hoping for a slight bounce today and tomorrow. I was thinking about bailing out of stock funds if we were headed toward 1085. I may have to regroup and bail anyway. I really don't want to ride down to 1013.
Did the death cross for the S&P only hit on the 15 minute chart- Jan 21st?
Click to expand...


First B3GC-S, then B3GC-I, then ADI, then ADL. I'm following the ADL, it's a long-term system, but not as long as the daily B3GC-L (Big 3 Golden Cross-Long)
FYI this isn't the most currect picture, the ADI/ADL are now all red...

View attachment 8240
 
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Look at EFA, & the EURO, they are what's dragging these markets down. Notice the I1, I2, I3 symbols on the ADI/ADL? those are my I-fund signals and they were the first to go into the red.
 
Why is it that the F fund (AGG) is up 0.19% today and the share price dropped to $13.5589 from $13.5807 on Friday?
Is there some kind of a -fv being applied here? -0.16% :suspicious:

 
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