Gumby's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

My apologies to Gumby for highjacking his thread, SB for using his intials and SG for listening but not hearing.
GO MARKETS!:nuts:

 

[Gumby]

No Banker left behind. This is outright thievery

Another RAW deal for the taxpayer! What a sweetheart of a deal for the people that caused this mess. Our government leaders are insane!


"Common shares absorb losses before preferred shares do, which means that under a stock-conversion plan taxpayers would be on the hook if banks keep writing down billions of dollars' worth of rotten assets, such as dodgy mortgages, as many analysts expect they will."

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[350zCommTech]

No Banker left behind. This is outright thievery

Another RAW deal for the taxpayer! What a sweetheart of a deal for the people that caused this mess. Our government leaders are insane!


"Common shares absorb losses before preferred shares do, which means that under a stock-conversion plan taxpayers would be on the hook if banks keep writing down billions of dollars' worth of rotten assets, such as dodgy mortgages, as many analysts expect they will."

More

Obama-

[SIZE=-1]

When special interests put their thumb on the scale, and distort the free market, the people who compete by the rules come in last.[/SIZE]

 

[Gumby]

Oh my gosh .... PLEASE don't be like the mindless others...

who only see a DEM

or a BLACK

or a MAN

but absolutely - under no circumstances - allow themselves to see the person who genuinely wants to make a difference for the better and is doing things in a way that everyone has longed for

This is honestly the VERY FIRST PRESIDENT that I've ever believed in and it's hard to count JFK because I was too young.

As an adult - especially over the past 20 to 30 years it's pretty much been having to pick the lesser of the 2 evils - which one stinks less - and finally for the very first time there was honestly this sense of fresh air .... someone really in touch with the people and what our country is meant to be.

I thought his speech was fantastic

I'm pretty sure it's you that has Stella - well I gave Ella a good bath a few days prior and will give her another lengthy hair cut tonight.

BTW - if you're anti BHO - I won't say anything like this again (on your thread)

SORRY - after posting on my thread I realized how I should have said - I CHOOSE TO BE MINDLESS - because I just realized how many would be insulted by my comment

SO I AM THE MINDLESS ONE - BUT I'M HAPPY HE IS THE PRESIDENT AND THINK HE'S GREAT

SG,

I am not against the president,.....mainly I am in awe of the elected people(mainly congress) and the pawns running the FED and treasury. It appears they spend very little time thinking about the long term ramifications of their current actions. The TARP money and the spendlus bill is just another way elected officials can print and throw away money they don't have. The government intruding in the markets just makes me ill.

When TARP I was passed last Fall, it was the Republican who voted for it. Tarp II was just the opposite with mainly Democrats voting for it. Either way the blame game just doesn't work with me. Bailing out the ones that caused the mess is unjust enrichment...at taxpayer expense. Yes, I did like Rick Santelli's rant!

Oh and by the way, SG, you are NOT mindless. BHO did have a good speech last night. I just don't like the direction the country appears to be heading. Between congress and Wall street running the country, I have no idea how this thing will play out....but it doesn't look good from my perspective.

PS: Stella, is due for a shearing this weekend

 

[Steadygain]

SG,

I am not against the president,.....mainly I am in awe of the elected people(mainly congress) and the pawns running the FED and treasury. It appears they spend very little time thinking about the long term ramifications of their current actions. The TARP money and the spendlus bill is just another way elected officials can print and throw away money they don't have. The government intruding in the markets just makes me ill.

When TARP I was passed last Fall, it was the Republican who voted for it. Tarp II was just the opposite with mainly Democrats voting for it. Either way the blame game just doesn't work with me. Bailing out the ones that caused the mess is unjust enrichment...at taxpayer expense. Yes, I did like Rick Santelli's rant!

Oh and by the way, SG, you are NOT mindless. BHO did have a good speech last night. I just don't like the direction the country appears to be heading. Between congress and Wall street running the country, I have no idea how this thing will play out....but it doesn't look good from my perspective.

PS: Stella, is due for a shearing this weekend

Wow thanks a million for your comments - seriously they are much appreciated.

Let me just briefly say that the overwhelming bulk of the problems were due to what is called the Shadow Banking System - and this system is not under the regulations of the FED and government - they have no FDIC - they have been allowed to operate on the highest of risk with the most minimal capital imaginable. Greenspan and Bush would be the 2 Greatest people responsible for the whole ordeal - PERIOD. The ONE PERSON who saw the dangers of Money largely shifting to (and controlled by the Shadow Banking System) is the current Treasury Secretary. HE DID HIS BEST TO SOUND THE ALARMS. There is no one better prepared for dealing with our present situation than BEN - check his background and qualifications and you'd have to know HE IS THE BEST.

All I could ask is that you don't lump BHO in with Bush - because they are totally different. The Gov't HAS NO CHOICE but to throw out more and more money to stimulate the economy - because the rates are down to ZERO. Politicians have been very corrupt in the past and trillions have disappeared 'unaccounted for'. BUT THOSE DAYS ARE OVER.

So all I'm saying is DO NOT GET CAUGHT UP IN THE BELIEF THAT THE POLITICIANS ARE TO BLAME - AND THAT EVERYTHING THEY DO IS WRONG AND EVERY EFFORT THEY MAKE IS TOWARDS SOCIALISM AND TO ROB US BLIND.

The ones who are most dominately responsible for 'causing this mess' are not being bailed out. The Media can only report on the solidly established institutions ... but are powerless to bring the REAL TRUTH to light. Rick Santelli would be a DEAD MAN if he were placed in the exact same position as Obama and told to either fix all the problems and turn things around OR DIE. I wish the hell that had been the case - because it takes absolutely nothing to rant and rave at everyone else as though you are the expert. But here we have a friendly disagreement AND THAT'S COOL cause it's just me and you.

Let's just say - in retrospect I realized hundreds of toes would get stepped on - so I made a valent effort to take the fall.

Now - and probably for years to come Nina is the love of my life during working hours - but there is no doubt I would totally lose myself with Stella - if I had her picture in my album.

Well later my friend. Oh BTW - what we are dealing with is so deep and widely spread throughout the globe - that the previous powers simply did everything possible to hide the truth and NOT deal with it - so the overwhleming goal was to 'put on a good face and make the next administration deal with it' - SO ALL OF US ARE ON THE SAME PAGE - THE PROBLEMS ARE SO COMPLEX AND NUMEROUS THAT THERE ARE NO 'EASY SOLUTIONS' - SO IT WILL GET WORSE AND IT'S GOING TO TAKE AT LEAST ANOTHER 6 MONTHS. THE BEST THING ALL OF US CAN DO IS TRY TO LIMIT THE NEGATIVE VIBES AND BELIEVE THAT MAYBE THEY KNOW MORE THAN WE REALIZE AND IN THE LONG RUN ARE DOING THE RIGHT THING.

Peace man - and thanks again for responding

 

[Gumby]

C,S, and I funds are all trading with the 5 day MA below the 20 day MA and the slope of the 5 day MA for all these funds is down (Not bullish). The general trend is still down.....but I am hoping for a small bounce. S&P at 800 would be nice by Friday. I should have avoided S & I funds last week but the day of the 3.5% down move in the S&P suckered me in. Markets have been volatile ever since and I really don't see that volatility waining anytime soon. I went back to 25%G today and the remainder still in S & I funds. I will probably be back in 100% G by end of the month.
Atilla predicts the swift downdraft(terminal move) will happen soon.
Atilla predicts :worried: This guy is right more than he is wrong.


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[350zCommTech]

Atilla predicts the swift downdraft(terminal move) will happen soon.
Atilla predicts :worried: This guy is right more than he is wrong.

I've been watching this guy too. He had a bad stretch last month or two, but he now appears to be back on track. His latest move was just a day early.

With that kind of a prediction, I wonder if he knows something or someone. I posted in my thread the other day that AIG needs $60B by Monday or go BK. I find it hard to believe that they won't get the money.

 

[justbizness45]

Gumby, you ever read decisionmoose.com? I almost blew them off until I looked at their stats. 2000 to present a $100K investment would be worth $925K. Even more impressive to me is that they are up 15% between Oct 2007 and today. They normally do <5 moves a year. I will continue to monitor them but if they issue a buy signal for stocks I will probably go all in for a long position. They are currently in GLD since 2/6/09.

 

[Gumby]

Gumby, you ever read decisionmoose.com? I almost blew them off until I looked at their stats. 2000 to present a $100K investment would be worth $925K. Even more impressive to me is that they are up 15% between Oct 2007 and today. They normally do <5 moves a year. I will continue to monitor them but if they issue a buy signal for stocks I will probably go all in for a long position. They are currently in GLD since 2/6/09.

JB
Yes, I have been keeping an eye on the "Moose Calls". They have done well. I am also very impressed with "Atilla". He is up like 1.5 mil since January 26th, 2008 (one month). His timing of the market has been nothing short of sensational. Atilla's Positions
He is currently long FAZ 5000sh, so he obviously thinks the banks are in for a fall soon. He may be correct.

 

[Gumby]

I've been watching this guy too. He had a bad stretch last month or two, but he now appears to be back on track. His latest move was just a day early.

With that kind of a prediction, I wonder if he knows something or someone. I posted in my thread the other day that AIG needs $60B by Monday or go BK. I find it hard to believe that they won't get the money.

350

Atilla must be very confident that something big is about to happen globally with the banks and financial firms. RBS just reported a 34 bil loss.
Could there be a big domino effect? Bernacke and company seem to be injecting money at a feverish pace into the US financial system. AIG is a HUGE money pit. This company is obviously very important to the FED and they appear any action necessary to prop them up. Could it be all these credit default swaps are mainly tied to AIG and if they failed it would unravel the global financial system? It would be interesting to know if their leverage is less than 100:1 even after all the write-offs.

 

[malyla]

Gumby, you ever read decisionmoose.com? I almost blew them off until I looked at their stats. 2000 to present a $100K investment would be worth $925K. Even more impressive to me is that they are up 15% between Oct 2007 and today. They normally do <5 moves a year. I will continue to monitor them but if they issue a buy signal for stocks I will probably go all in for a long position. They are currently in GLD since 2/6/09.

Thanks JB45, I just read the current Moosecall and I'm very impressed. A very concise analysis of the 'quick and easy' vs 'longterm pain' strategy with a nice comparison between the public and political attitudes. This will now be one of my must reads during the week. Thanks for sharing.

Thankyou Gumby for the Atilla link. Something is definately in the air <sniff>.
Malyla

 

[Steadygain]

so he obviously thinks the banks are in for a fall soon. He may be correct.

Central Message: "We do not want to Nationalize Banks"

Protrays a solid belief in the Private Institutons and the overwhelming goal of keeping that the Primary Goal.

A very smart move

Reality - They are not prepared (nor are almost every other Industry) without Government Intervention. BANKS have to be the most central focus - Nationalization is unavoidable (at least temporarily)

shareholders get burned - shareholders took a risk so whatever

BTW - The new Ativar is very cool

 

[Gumby]

Something is definately in the air <sniff>.
Malyla

Malyla,
When you figure out what it is, let me know. We may go from bear excrement to bull excrement today. Birch is probably snorting already. Maybe that is a short term signal.:nuts:

 

[Gumby]

Nationalization is unavoidable (at least temporarily)

shareholders get burned - shareholders took a risk so whatever

BTW - The new Ativar is very cool

Hey my friend,

I believe essentially the banking system is Nationalized to an extent that gives them a reprieve from failure. At least as long as the FED and Treasury keep pumping them money, they should stay afloat.
The actions of the government allowing banks to convert preferred to common stock will be a windfall for the banks and bad for the taxpayers. Toxic assets will be dumped eventually, I think that is inevitable. The taxpayer is the obviously buyer.:suspicious:

It was time for change. At least it looks like Gumby can get around instead of being a couch potato talking to a shrink.

 

[350zCommTech]

350

Atilla must be very confident that something big is about to happen globally with the banks and financial firms. RBS just reported a 34 bil loss.
Could there be a big domino effect? Bernacke and company seem to be injecting money at a feverish pace into the US financial system. AIG is a HUGE money pit. This company is obviously very important to the FED and they appear any action necessary to prop them up. Could it be all these credit default swaps are mainly tied to AIG and if they failed it would unravel the global financial system? It would be interesting to know if their leverage is less than 100:1 even after all the write-offs.

Yes, the problem with AIG is world wide counter party fallout. Foreign and US institutions, such as GS and C want their payout. They will probably get their money and the markets will rally.

Just look at this morning's rally. UK tax payers are being raped. Offloading their toxic assets onto the government is a great idea for these banks. It's great until the country blows up.:nuts:

Terms of the government deal call for RBS to be responsible for the first 19.5 billion pounds of losses on the 325 billion pounds of assets, with the government then covering 90% of any further losses.

 

[hessian]

Been mystified by what happing in the Bank-world daily.
Could it be related to pending/now ongoing "stess-tests", or just uncertainty of "nationalization? Either way, I'm glad now to be sitting this out on sidelines.:blink:
VR

 

[Gumby]

Changed my mind. Following Corepunchers lead. I am heading for the sidelines. 100% G

 

[Gumby]

Check out Atilla's prediction of the market.

It doesn't look good.

 

[felixthecat]

Thanks for the article. I've been under the assumption that the market is going to take a plunge. I've moved my tsp very little. Even just a couple of times has over the last two months has only netted me a big fat zero return. I'm done until we get this plunge over with. This back and forth bottoming process is just an illusion because we haven't broken the downwards trend line so in my opinion we are headed for a serious plunge off the cliff. There is a real Grim Reaper shadow hanging over the markets. Honestly, I'm not sure why the markets havn't just taken a big dive of 10 percent or more in one fell swoop. The economy is in such dire shape. You can measure the tragedy unfolding by just looking around.

I found out today that a employee nearing retirement in the coming months has lost 1/2 of her TSP account by holding in the I fund.

Devastating losses are continuing to mount for my co-workers who I have tried to suggest they bail but to no avail. It sadness me that this hold mentatility has been so ingrained even after I have given them a couple of examples of decade long stretches where no money was made except for divies. This is serious. I have no illusion now that we are entering a dark period of our economy.

Grim Reaper is coming soon. I have officially changed my Avatar.

 

[Gumby]

I found out today that a employee nearing retirement in the coming months has lost 1/2 of her TSP account by holding in the I fund.

Devastating losses are continuing to mount for my co-workers who I have tried to suggest they bail but to no avail. It sadness me that this hold mentatility has been so ingrained even after I have given them a couple of examples of decade long stretches where no money was made except for divies. This is serious. I have no illusion now that we are entering a dark period of our economy.

Grim Reaper is coming soon.

I also know people that have been anchored in the I fund. Well over a 50% loss since Jan 08. I am still amazed of the number of people that seem to take no interest in managing their TSP accounts but will complain because they lost money. These people are convinced hat it will come back "soon". There has been alot of talk around the office since the annual reports came out. Several didn't even know how to make an IFT.

I have no idea how this downturn will play out.....but your assessment of the Grim Reaper is spot on.