Griffin Account Talk

[Steadygain]

With retirement looking me in the eye I have to be a bit more conservative and do not want to take another moderate bath like I did in in 2001. So a lot of my portfolio is in G but I still have >$50k out there in the I fund. YTD is 7.88% overall. So as I approach retirement do gurus think it better to yank TSP funds and dump into other assets as quickly as reasonable or keep riding the market and hope that the rate of return will exceed inflation and taxes and that the market doesn't take a major prolonged down turn? That is the $64k question isn't it?

First off - welcome to the MB and congratulations on finally approaching retirement. Your best bet is to see a retirement specialist in person - an estate planner - or financial counselor and not relie on anyone on this MB. Having over 50K in I Fund is a little scarey - and by that I mean $50,000 (which is a very small amount when considering the retirement years). If you yank the TSP Funds then you have just ruined your retirement plans, as a huge portion will be lost to taxes - and you also lose the ability to continue letting it grow over the years. At this point you may want to consider the shorter term L Fund - which is designed for Capital Preservation and yet also lets you make fairly consistent gains. I have personally been riding in the S Fund for the past few weeks because I believed a rally was guaranteed based on the immediate climate - however I have no doubt we are heading for very hard times and this is where the G Fund is wonderful.

 

[logdoc]

Steadygain: the I fund has only about 15% of my TSP funds...most of it is buried in G. So I am not overly concerned. But I I'll continure to add to the I fund till next summer when the retirement will occur.
The only down side to the G fund is what inflation will do to those returns.

Spaf: the other assets I am considering are: buildable lands in and around Idaho that would provide rents from agricultural uses. Possibly a rentable duplex. My construction business needs a new office and that may be where I'll put my money...build a new office with the bank's $$, writing off 40% of cost on that old friend schedule C, and investing the income from construction work and pay the mortgage with principal and proceeds from the TSP.
I give my accountant nightmares when I talk like this.

 

[GGal]

merry christmas

 

[merlin]

Merry Christmas

 

[Gaetaone]

Merry Christmas Everyone!!

 

[Griffin]

I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and are looking forward to the new year. Thanks for the well wishing. My vacation continues through this week and I will definitely be out of the loop during the day and most nights. If I make an IFT it will be at night, but when you read this weeks brief I think you will see why I really don't expect to make a move out of stocks this week.

Folks, have a great new year and treat yourself even if the market and TSP board shafted you this year.

 

[ATCJeff]

I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and are looking forward to the new year. Thanks for the well wishing. My vacation continues through this week and I will definitely be out of the loop during the day and most nights. If I make an IFT it will be at night, but when you read this weeks brief I think you will see why I really don't expect to make a move out of stocks this week.

Folks, have a great new year and treat yourself even if the market and TSP board shafted you this year.

Happy New Year buddy. We/me sure have missed your input.

 

[CountryBoy]

I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and are looking forward to the new year. Thanks for the well wishing. My vacation continues through this week and I will definitely be out of the loop during the day and most nights. If I make an IFT it will be at night, but when you read this weeks brief I think you will see why I really don't expect to make a move out of stocks this week.

Folks, have a great new year and treat yourself even if the market and TSP board shafted you this year.

Happy New Year to you also and great brief, thanks for sharing your analysis.

CB

 

[airlift]

HAPPY NEW YEAR to ALL!

 

[clester]

We need some words of wisdom. Grif, what are your thought about today?

Thanks

 

[logdoc]

So what strategies are folks thinking about when the TSP board puts the squeeze on active investing and eliminates day trading. We'll have three monthly moves (one is the G fund exit move) and the slower long term manipulation of accounts with changing contibution allocations. Being close to retirement, I have to be careful as I can't make up mistakes with years of added contributions. I am trying to think about how to use the few moves we'll be given. Clearly the market will control the choices I'd make but now I think I need to read indicators further into the month and not just jump on a short term position that is subject to a rapid reversal. As I'd have only the G fund move as my out.

 

[Robo5555]

Its going to be hard logdog. This rollercoaster market will make it harder. Might have to change the entire approach. I trade elsewhere and TSP is just a retirement plus. They are going to throw a wrench to the system with these limitations. A few people at work are going to the minimum 5% contribution and are going to invest on other venues.

 

[Griffin]

A few people at work are going to the minimum 5% contribution and are going to invest on other venues.

That is what I will be doing. Even if we do see some type of bargainning with the TSP board on this IFT limitation inititive, TSP has still "gone there" and they will again. This inititive is the beginning of TSP being nothing more then a core backbone to an more comprhensive strategy. Hopefully, they will give us a 401K option to use instead of TSP. The next fight will be to get the option to move our existing money out of TSP into a qualified IRA.

 

[Griffin]

I am going to hold onto my stock position for today - and reconsider again tomorrow.

 

[felixthecat]

Remained in the C fund for 01/08/08 as I project a smaller gain to the upside today followed by a pop on Tuesday. I could also imagine a smaller loss today followed by a pop Tuesday. Either way...the upside is larger than the downside IMHO. I also had the usual images of Nasdaq being oversold shortterm, Bernake making a surprise move here to stabilize the market, or the historical up pattern the next two days. I also noticed that gold was taking a breather today and if there was panic in the market, gold would have made another move today. Also..oil has made a big move down here which in a day doesn't alleviate the economy but does shed some hope for shorterm weakness in oil and shortterm alleviation of the pressure oil has put on equities. The upward move in the dollar also sheds has some positive tone for the market.

 

[Spaf]

You are correct anidoc!

There are several type of traders: Position, Swing, and Day.

Day traders like to take on the most risk and want to trade as a full-time business looking to day trade. They never hold a position in a security overnight.

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DO NOT CALL INTERFUND TRANSFERS DAY TRADING!

 

[Robo5555]

ITF is not day trading even thgough some people see it that way.

 

[alevin]

And some of us think IFT but have unthinkingly used the other word now that FedSmith has put it in people's minds, but no more will that evil word come out of my mouth! (yeah, I've been reading the many many many many ignorant comments re the rationale for proposed limitation on the FedSmith blog for quite some time now, and also recognized DennisFAA incognito speaking forth there to little avail it seems, "I've made up my mind, don't confuse me with the facts" seems to be prevalent attitude among most, tho not all those fellow TSP'ers). Happily I don't think I was ever quite as unaware as some of these folks are about IFT history and what their accounts need to be achieving for them, even in my earliest days.

 

[logdoc]

The words Day Trader will never come from this key board again, but I was making IFTs almost every day...it felt like I was doing something daily. But my TSP account is not a small part of my retirement. It is most of it. After putting 3 sons through college with no debt for me or them, (what do you think that is worth going into retirement?) I was looking forward to improving on just index returns with some timing with 20% of my account in play. I don't have substantial alternative funds that I can fall back on to use for trading. And with frequent ITF picking up a few thousands here and there over what the market was doing I was feeling pretty comfortable about making up for lost time. Well I had a good run for almost 3 years.

 

[DrFaustus]

I'm in pretty much the same position as you, logdoc. No kids, but I have sick wife (diabetes is nasty stuff) so I haven't been able to put together enough funds to make investing in anything else worthwhile. I was hoping to generate about 15% a year for my TSP to put me within a few hundred yards of easy street but that is going to be a difficult goal to meet now.