Griffin Account Talk

[logdoc]

Oh Yeah... BUSH wasn't elected "by the people... for the people".

He was elected by the puppet master... for the puppet master.

How soon we forget.:notrust:

I am not a big conspiracy theorist but when the president signs an EO that allows former presidents and their families to prevent the release of public documents, as Bush League II did, one has to think that certain elements of society look out only for them selves. The rest of us be damned. Hard to know who those elements of society are, but preventing TSP members from making IFT daily would suggest that such financial moves are reserved for others, not simple working folks.

 

[Griffin]

With the S&P punching through the bottom of the all too critical 1375 mark, it is time to consider eating a very substantial loss and waiting for sunny days. The problem is the Fed. Bernake said they will step in, and now is the time to do it.

I hate to wait one more day in this market, but Bernake may very well wait until after the release of the Beige Book to make a public statement.

I'm going to give it one more day, but if the Fed has not stepped in by tomorrow or we don't get a massive oversold rally. I don't want to ride out a bear market.

 

[FundSurfer]

Agreed. I think I've decided that the sidelines might be the place to be but we are due an oversold bounce. I'll probably step aside on the next one.

With the S&P punching through the bottom of the all too critical 1375 mark, it is time to consider eating a very substantial loss and waiting for sunny days. The problem is the Fed. Bernake said they will step in, and now is the time to do it.

I hate to wait one more day in this market, but Bernake may very well wait until after the release of the Beige Book to make a public statement.

I'm going to give it one more day, but if the Fed has not stepped in by tomorrow or we don't get a massive oversold rally. I don't want to ride out a bear market.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Benanke is also due to speak about the economy tomorrow.

 

[Griffin]

Benanke is also due to speak about the economy tomorrow.

Good info, thanks

 

[tom1tom1]

Come on benanke

 

[walli1]

I don't expect a rate cut before jan 30, or maybe as late as feb 6 after the results of the 20 state primaries are in. It's all political at this point..letting the economy tank to the bottom...then GOP coming to the rescue. Bush has nothing to lose.

We probably need a good socialist in there. Yea, that's what we need.

 

[vectorman]

Benanke is also due to speak about the economy tomorrow.

"Ben Bernanke Speaks! Thursday - Jan 17, 2008

10:00 AM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to testify on the U.S. economy, possible stimulus to the House Budget Committee, in Washington."


http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

 

[Griffin]

At 1030 I went into an emergency meeting and things did not seem to bad, I came out it a few minutes ago and it appears we are having another crisis of a day.

What's done is done and here is the picture. We now find ourselves back in the channel that was established after the tech bubble recession. We have essentially erased the rapid growth of the last two years - which was driven in a large part by the sub-prime mortgage industry - because the new wide spread use of "toxic mortgages" allowed folks who should not have been able to compete in a higher bracket housing market to compete which drove up prices.

If we hold the line here - the subprime industry will truely have slipped into the history books. Of course, we would need to see some recovery in the housing industry for that to happen which needs to be a part of the economic stimulus package. It's time to fix this mistake.

The trend of this channel takes us back to a standard 8% growth model for the S&P 500. We could see this market rebound back, but I have to conclude that anything above 1440, is out of bounds for the forseeable future.

View attachment 3095

 

[Steadygain]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/17/news/economy/housingstarts/index.htm

Homebullding: Sharpest drop in 27 years

Goes along with your last post - which is excellent as usual.

 

[walli1]

At 1030 I went into an emergency meeting and things did not seem to bad, I came out it a few minutes ago and it appears we are having another crisis of a day.

What's done is done and here is the picture. We now find ourselves back in the channel that was established after the tech bubble recession. We have essentially erased the rapid growth of the last two years - which was driven in a large part by the sub-prime mortgage industry - because the new wide spread use of "toxic mortgages" allowed folks who should not have been able to compete in a higher bracket housing market to compete which drove up prices.

If we hold the line here - the subprime industry will truely have slipped into the history books. Of course, we would need to see some recovery in the housing industry for that to happen which needs to be a part of the economic stimulus package. It's time to fix this mistake.

The trend of this channel takes us back to a standard 8% growth model for the S&P 500. We could see this market rebound back, but I have to conclude that anything above 1440, is out of bounds for the forseeable future.

View attachment 3095

Have you decided (or have you already) to bail out of S since we're now well below where you said you'd get out. Just curious.

 

[Geaux4it]

This market is way beyond being 'fixed' with just a 3% bounce from a dysfunctional Fed. I decided a couple weeks ago to sit on the beach and watch the mauling. I had to rationalize my own position and it came down to; do I want to stay in and lose ~17% while waiting on a 4% bounce? Once the market bottoms out there will be plenty of time to ride the horse back onto the mountain. Missing one or two days in inconsequential. Knowing when to say when is more luck than knowledge. What's the old sports adage? 'Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good'?Geaux

 

[Griffin]

Have you decided (or have you already) to bail out of S since we're now well below where you said you'd get out. Just curious.

Yeap, I'm done. I initiated a transfer to the F-fund for tommorrow. I have gotten spanked fairly hard and I am now down 11%. It sucks being this far down. However, the Fed, congress and the president have lost their friggin minds. Clearly an emergency rate cut and economic stimulus package was warranted earlier this week.

We achieved stall speed just like Greenspan said we would. Now were screwed, the engine of growth has seized and the foreign investors are going to back out. I think the loss taken so far is not really that bad given where this thing eventually ends up. I still believe I will walk away from this year slightly positive, which is what my goal was early on.

I hate to say this, but I hope we get a Dead Cat Bounce. I'd like to recover just 1% of my loss to keep it an even 10% :nuts:.

 

[vectorman]

" However, the Fed, congress and the president have lost their friggin minds. " Quote by Griffin.

I agree Griffin. I listened to Ben and the Idiots on parade today. This Country is in real bad trouble. Just like the New Orleans fiasco, they don't have a clue on how to fix it.

 

[Show-me]

Hey I watch Ben of CSPAN last night and I could not believe how stupid he sounded. Uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, like he was pausing or stalling to answer questions uh, uh, uh. It is the first time I heard him speak and my first impression was not very impressive.

He needs to get off his butt and take charge of the situation. Congress will not get anything done for a month.

 

[Griffin]

He needs to get off his butt and take charge of the situation. Congress will not get anything done for a month.

Ron Paul needs to get off his butt and apologize to Bernanke. The good news is GW picked up the tv remote and switched from Gilligan's Island to the news and now he's aware that we have a problem.

Ron, Ben if your listening: It's called "Collaboration" get to it.

 

[Silverbird]

Hey I watch Ben of CSPAN last night and I could not believe how stupid he sounded. Uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, like he was pausing or stalling to answer questions uh, uh, uh. It is the first time I heard him speak and my first impression was not very impressive.

He needs to get off his butt and take charge of the situation. Congress will not get anything done for a month.

He doesn't have the power to take charge of the situation since interest rate cuts aren't helping. But he can't say that, therefore IMHO that's why the uh uh uh.....:worried:

 

[ChemEng]

Yeap, I'm done. I initiated a transfer to the F-fund for tommorrow.

Im sitting in the I-fund today and thinking its a good time to bail as well.

 

[CountryBoy]

Yeap, I'm done. I initiated a transfer to the F-fund for tommorrow.

I hate to say this, but I hope we get a Dead Cat Bounce. :nuts:.

Yeah I'm hoping for a DCB for myself today, I dipped into the C and S, 25% per and will be moving back to G or F before the noon deadline.

This sure has been brutal.

CB

 

[logdoc]

Im sitting in the I-fund today and thinking its a good time to bail as well.

Unless one thinks that this will be a world wide recession, why wouldn't a person keep a percentage in the I fund. It has been down but the rest of the world will keep moving forward. The US will get the flu and the rest of the world will get a sniffle I am thinking. I plan to keep 10% exposed and 60% G and 30% F. If the entire world is not tanking, just the over borrowed, over leveraged, over-bubbled US, I'd like a better return than the G and F provide. And I am willing to place some of my funds at risk. I've dodge most of this recent carnage and see the I as a place where I can avoid most of what is yet to come for the US stock market.