07/15/25
After a sluggish start and some choppy action, the bulls did a good job of holding up the indices on Monday. The Nasdaq made a new all time high while the S&P 500 is still hovering near its highs. Small caps bounced back from Friday's sell off, and led the TSP funds with a 0.80% gain. The I-fund was up modestly but the dollar continues to rally in July putting on some pressure. Bonds were flat on the day.
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The S&P 500 (C-fund) has been sliding sideways for more than a week as the rally is stalling but the bears have been unable to roll this market over. In the next day or two this chart will face a due or die situation (that's a little dramatic) with the rising support coming into the picture. Below the blue trading channel is more support about 100 to 120 points below the current level where the 20-day average is meeting with the February highs. And, as we talked about yesterday, it has wandered more than 260-points above the purple 50-day average and it could be days, weeks, or months, but at some point the index will converge again with that average.
The one-year chart shows the index in the neighborhood of some possible long-term resistance, but from below is some longer-term support. Something is going to have to give here. The chart and market environment has been bullish making a breakout seem reasonable, but can the angle of incline be sustained without some kind of support building pullback?
And here we are: After Monday, the July seasonality chart comes off its best days of the month and moves into a more bearish biased period that will last about two weeks before hitting a more bullish end of the month. Then comes August, and we'll cross that bridge when we get closer, but it's one of the least profitable months of the year for stocks historically.
I'm bringing the ACWX (I-fund) chart up here just to highlight what the dollar is doing and how it could impact this top performing 2025 TSP fund. The chart has broken below its rising channel with a big old open gap down near the 50-day EMA. It is lagging the C and S-funds this month because...
... the dollar has caught some interest. Perhaps this was just an oversold bounce for UUP and the dollar, but yesterday it broke above some descending resistance. There is, however, the 50-day EMA looming just overhead which could provide more resistance. If that average gets taken out, the I-fund could find itself losing its current leadership.
Bitcoin made another new high above 123,000.
We will get the CPI (Consumer Prices) data this morning, and the PPI (Producer Prices) on Wednesday.
DWCPF / S-fund led with a handsome gain of 0.80% as the old resistance line continues to hold as support. It is also getting further above its 50-day average (118-points) and it has tended to come back and touch that base with that average every once in a while. I still think, given the seasonality change, a test of 2250 would satisfy a lot on this chart.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was flat as it negotiates its way around that gap that it filled in on Friday. Long-term yields are rising around the world. If favorable, today's CPI report could rip this back above the top of that channel, but if inflations starts to show itself again, BND could find itself languishing within the channel again.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
After a sluggish start and some choppy action, the bulls did a good job of holding up the indices on Monday. The Nasdaq made a new all time high while the S&P 500 is still hovering near its highs. Small caps bounced back from Friday's sell off, and led the TSP funds with a 0.80% gain. The I-fund was up modestly but the dollar continues to rally in July putting on some pressure. Bonds were flat on the day.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
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The S&P 500 (C-fund) has been sliding sideways for more than a week as the rally is stalling but the bears have been unable to roll this market over. In the next day or two this chart will face a due or die situation (that's a little dramatic) with the rising support coming into the picture. Below the blue trading channel is more support about 100 to 120 points below the current level where the 20-day average is meeting with the February highs. And, as we talked about yesterday, it has wandered more than 260-points above the purple 50-day average and it could be days, weeks, or months, but at some point the index will converge again with that average.
The one-year chart shows the index in the neighborhood of some possible long-term resistance, but from below is some longer-term support. Something is going to have to give here. The chart and market environment has been bullish making a breakout seem reasonable, but can the angle of incline be sustained without some kind of support building pullback?
And here we are: After Monday, the July seasonality chart comes off its best days of the month and moves into a more bearish biased period that will last about two weeks before hitting a more bullish end of the month. Then comes August, and we'll cross that bridge when we get closer, but it's one of the least profitable months of the year for stocks historically.
I'm bringing the ACWX (I-fund) chart up here just to highlight what the dollar is doing and how it could impact this top performing 2025 TSP fund. The chart has broken below its rising channel with a big old open gap down near the 50-day EMA. It is lagging the C and S-funds this month because...
... the dollar has caught some interest. Perhaps this was just an oversold bounce for UUP and the dollar, but yesterday it broke above some descending resistance. There is, however, the 50-day EMA looming just overhead which could provide more resistance. If that average gets taken out, the I-fund could find itself losing its current leadership.
Bitcoin made another new high above 123,000.
We will get the CPI (Consumer Prices) data this morning, and the PPI (Producer Prices) on Wednesday.
DWCPF / S-fund led with a handsome gain of 0.80% as the old resistance line continues to hold as support. It is also getting further above its 50-day average (118-points) and it has tended to come back and touch that base with that average every once in a while. I still think, given the seasonality change, a test of 2250 would satisfy a lot on this chart.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was flat as it negotiates its way around that gap that it filled in on Friday. Long-term yields are rising around the world. If favorable, today's CPI report could rip this back above the top of that channel, but if inflations starts to show itself again, BND could find itself languishing within the channel again.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
