Griffin Account Talk

[merlin]

I'm in pretty much the same position as you, logdoc. No kids, but I have sick wife (diabetes is nasty stuff) so I haven't been able to put together enough funds to make investing in anything else worthwhile. I was hoping to generate about 15% a year for my TSP to put me within a few hundred yards of easy street but that is going to be a difficult goal to meet now.

I know how you feel. We are all in the same boat and seems like we have lost the paddle.

 

[logdoc]

ANIDOC
Roger that suggestion. Though living in the red state that I do, it may fall on deaf ears.
But I have wasted stamps on my so-called represetatives before.

 

[justbizness45]

That is what I will be doing. Even if we do see some type of bargainning with the TSP board on this IFT limitation inititive, TSP has still "gone there" and they will again. This inititive is the beginning of TSP being nothing more then a core backbone to an more comprhensive strategy. Hopefully, they will give us a 401K option to use instead of TSP. The next fight will be to get the option to move our existing money out of TSP into a qualified IRA.

Anyone got recommendations on a good IRA that has reletively low costs??

 

[Griffin]

Yesterday was an evil day and the late day shut down what looked like a potentially succesful recovery from last Friday's technical damage. That sell-off turned the market into a real nightmare situation. The VIX spiked, and the fear that seemed to be absent last Friday materialized with a vengence.

The Fed failed to step in with an emergency rate cut. On the surface, yesterday seemed to confirm that the credit auction failed (it created debt but little stimulation). However, the credit data reported predates the auctions, so they may yet prove to be the medicine the market needs (this will become important very soon and may serve to reverse or amplify the results of the 4th quarter earnings report. The Bush administrations hints at an economic incentive packages and tax cuts are clearly are coming up short of instilling investor confidence. Yesterday was a strategic failure for the Bush administration. You can call it irony that it occurred on the New Hampshire primary, but yesterday's market action was as politically important as the primary. The market voted and the outcome is: "the economy is in serious trouble"

Serious trouble means serious action, and the time for action is now. If you go to Tom's graph from this morning's comments: the thin red line at the bottom leading to 1375 is the last opportunity this administration and Fed have to salvage things - below this is recession. I do not want to steal Tom's thunder, but depending on what happen's at this level, we may see the making's of a grand thesis.

View attachment 3021

Had I not been in the market last Friday, I would have bought in yesterday morning - I know that and I know if I had stayed in bonds through then, I would not be eyeing this downturn as a buying opportunity. So rather then giving into the coaxing of my newly formed ulcer, I am going to stay vigilant about looking for the oversold relief rally.

Below 1375 I bail out - regardless, otherwise I am on a quest to find an more acceptable exit point. 1375 may also be the ignition point for a signficant rally. However it works out, I will eat whatever losses I have too and accept this for what it is - the losses associated with a major market reversal. That's the price you pay for being a 100% aggressive timer when your in a bull market.

This is a tough and bold position to take, and not for the faint of heart.

 

[presskh]

Nice update, Griffin - Thanks!

 

[caymanbrac12]

Right now we are at 1396 on the S & P (I'm playing straight C fund with a little F fund tossed in for the hedge) and I would not be suprised to see a 40 to 50 point upside there looking at the data and a little history. As Griffin said are you willing to roll the dice.

By the way anyone who plays etf's RSX (Russia) which I have held for a while has still been postive and EWM (Malaysia) has been on fire since the beginning of the year so don't rule out old vanilla etf's if you have the chance or whatever floats your boat.

Greg

 

[caymanbrac12]

Just to go into a little more detail with the Dow and the S&P down now 5 out of 8 last sessions and the NASDAQ down 8 in a row a tradeable rally seems like a no brainer IMHO. With the put/call ratio hitting 138% yesterday, the classic dumb money indicator is showing extreme bearishness. The OEX put/call ratio shows the pros are reducing their bearish exposure. The ARMS index is at levels that tell you the risk of buying here is limited and the Fed Model is showing stocks 48% undervalued to the Ten Year Treasury.

I don't know but technically it seems the market is suspect but from and oversold/overbought and valuation perspective there might be some money on the table and I'm thinking (hopefully) that downside risk from here is limited.


Greg

 

[logdoc]

To justbizness45

I have a little experience with American Century funds. Generally no load but you have to pick and choose what fund in that family you want to invest with. Some are dogs and some are pretty good preformers. Costs are in the < 1.5% range for the most part and several are <1%. One advantage is moving between various funds in the Amer Century umbrella is pretty easy though there are some limitations on # of moves/year.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Right now we are at 1396 on the S & P (I'm playing straight C fund with a little F fund tossed in for the hedge) and I would not be suprised to see a 40 to 50 point upside there looking at the data and a little history. As Griffin said are you willing to roll the dice.

By the way anyone who plays etf's RSX (Russia) which I have held for a while has still been postive and EWM (Malaysia) has been on fire since the beginning of the year so don't rule out old vanilla etf's if you have the chance or whatever floats your boat.

Greg

So does anyone think we can get a pop of 40 to 50 in the C fund as I said before the noon deadline in our future days? (still have the fingers crossed behind the back):cheesy:

 

[Show-me]

So does anyone think we can get a pop of 40 to 50 in the C fund as I said before the noon deadline in our future days? (still have the fingers crossed behind the back):cheesy:

I'm in your camp. We need, at the very least, a relief rally.

 

[justbizness45]

To justbizness45

I have a little experience with American Century funds. Generally no load but you have to pick and choose what fund in that family you want to invest with. Some are dogs and some are pretty good preformers. Costs are in the < 1.5% range for the most part and several are <1%. One advantage is moving between various funds in the Amer Century umbrella is pretty easy though there are some limitations on # of moves/year.

Thanks logdoc, I'll look at them. With TSP tying my hands I am looking at other options.

 

[phillyfed]

Griffin,

First off, I think you have the most informative thread here with alot of great input by some of the boards best posters.

I have to take issue with one point you made....

A recessionary market is generally classified as a 20% decline from the top. 10%-19% is often viewed as a correction and even appears in bull markets. S&P at 1375 would put us at roughly 11.5% off the highs (maybe im off a %pt.?). I wouldnt necessarily think all is lost and we are in recession just below 1375. Recession at 20% could take us back to 1260 or lower on the S&P. I do believe 1375 is now imminent now that the S&P bull market chart, going back 4 years plus has just been breached. JMHO

Serious trouble means serious action, and the time for action is now. If you go to Tom's graph from this morning's comments: the thin red line at the bottom leading to 1375 is the last opportunity this administration and Fed have to salvage things - below this is recession. I do not want to steal Tom's thunder, but depending on what happen's at this level, we may see the making's of a grand thesis.

View attachment 3021

 

[presskh]

Kass says Fed will cut rates "momentarily"

Anyone seen this?

http://www.thestreet.com/s/kass-fed-is-cutting-soon/newsanalysis/investing/10397800.html?puc=_tsccom

 

[Show-me]

Re: Kass says Fed will cut rates "momentarily"

Anyone seen this?

http://www.thestreet.com/s/kass-fed-is-cutting-soon/newsanalysis/investing/10397800.html?puc=_tsccom

I'm stealing your reference. Thank you!

 

[Griffin]

Thanks for the kind words and certainly, everything I say is open to discussion - I think that's what makes this board so successful. I will stand by my statement - although I am not disagreeing with what you said. Here's why:

There are a lot of criteria used to define recession, and my belief is that if the market goes below 1375, it will go much lower - and eventually meet the criteria you laid out - the next major support below 1375 takes us back to the lows set in June/July 2006. I see 1375 as the threshold, anything below that is the market pricing in recession.

As you are well aware, the market is forward looking and it will price in recession before we have all the usual suspect confirmations. We already have some Wall Street analysts saying were there now. Folks have hope that we will see an economic stimulus package from one or more sources soon.

Foreign investors are already stepping in again today to support Citigroup and Merril Lynch. Of course, what Bernake says after our deadline is going to overshadow any earnings reports or corporate strategy statements. Today's in Ben's hands - let's hope he's bringing his pilot's license to the speech .

Griffin,

First off, I think you have the most informative thread here with alot of great input by some of the boards best posters.

I have to take issue with one point you made....

A recessionary market is generally classified as a 20% decline from the top. 10%-19% is often viewed as a correction and even appears in bull markets. S&P at 1375 would put us at roughly 11.5% off the highs (maybe im off a %pt.?). I wouldnt necessarily think all is lost and we are in recession just below 1375. Recession at 20% could take us back to 1260 or lower on the S&P. I do believe 1375 is now imminent now that the S&P bull market chart, going back 4 years plus has just been breached. JMHO


View attachment 3021

 

[logdoc]

Anyone recall the malaise of the 1970's. We had just ended a not very popular war, we had a president just short of impeached, we had an oil embargo, we ended up with a president that was not elected (Ford), the effect of the developing rust belt was just being noticed as the begining of international global competition was impacting the US, wage and price controls had been inplace, and then there was the inflation. It has the same feel to me. And if stocks perform like they did in the 70's, Oh Brother.

 

[Rod]

we ended up with a president that was not elected (Ford),

Oh Yeah... BUSH wasn't elected "by the people... for the people".

He was elected by the puppet master... for the puppet master.

How soon we forget.:notrust:

 

[mamikin]

Anyone recall the malaise of the 1970's. We had just ended a not very popular war, we had a president just short of impeached, we had an oil embargo, we ended up with a president that was not elected (Ford), the effect of the developing rust belt was just being noticed as the begining of international global competition was impacting the US, wage and price controls had been inplace, and then there was the inflation. It has the same feel to me. And if stocks perform like they did in the 70's, Oh Brother.

I do remember these times, though I was just a kid.

Remember, there were even worse times than the 70's in less than the last 100 years. My parents grew up in the Great Depression and I heard about how bad it was repeatedly from them .... not that I'm predicting that we go through anything that devestating again, but life is a cycle and we have to hit the highs and the lows, the pendulum swings back and forth.

 

[Griffin]

The following is this week's brief. I apologize for the delay.

Last week had a distinctively different feel to it then the previous week. The break in the five year channel that occurred could have been disaster a couple of months ago. But the market found support along what appears to be a new channel bottom, the trading became a little more even and even though the week was ultimately a downer , it really was not bad. This new channel would generate a very anemic growth rate and would be lucky to outstrip inflation. Only a timer would benefit in that long term environment. Even with the new regulations on their way, I’m still optimistic that we can put it to our advantage.

If the market does not get blown out by the next shoe too drop, it now looks like a good place to buy in if you are out and looking to beef your returns up a little. It would take a couple of moves over a week or so to make it work. This is now the type of timing that we may have to get used too.

Of course, I’m not out nor have I been since the beginning of the year. I am still waiting for the oversold rally to materialize so I can exit the market at some point in the near future and scramble over to bonds. I will remain in stocks until we get something or we break below this lower growth support level. I do not expect to see new high’s anytime soon, but there is an easy 10% range of flexibility to this market and large longer swings are what we can work with given the new trading environment.

On to the fundamentals: A 50 point basis cut to the fed funds rate would really help things out, except that folks are already starting to bet on a 75 point basis cut. That’s a shame because it’s setting the market up for an expectation that will probably not be realized again. This is becoming an all too common pattern. Then again, the fed has not moved 75 basis points in a long time and selling the general market that idea might be a tough sell. I’m not buying it.

 

[alevin]

Altho I'm currently all the way out, these are the types of chart indicators I'm working with as of this weekend to help me decide when to move back in for a swing up that's not too short-term volatile. Hope this combo of indicators works this time, seems to have done so over the past year fairly predictably., will see, speaks the chart rookie.

I do not expect to see new high’s anytime soon, but there is an easy 10% range of flexibility to this market and large longer swings are what we can work with given the new trading environment.
.