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Griffin Account Talk
- Thread starter Griffin
- Start date
Griffin
Well-known member
<iframe height="339" width="425" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/22728809#22728809" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>
Watch this video - he does not get it and you can see from the expressions of the other folks standing there that they know that they've blown it.
I may not be doing another IFT for several months - so what happens in a day or two is fairly irrelevant.
That is not exactly true. The 1/1/07 listing of EAFE had Australia a 5.6%
Europe was 69%; Australasia/Far east 31%
So the question remains, will the global market tank too?
merlin
Member
I understand your logic but the Japanese market plays off of the US market. Their down when we are down and if their up and we are down a negative FV follows. (Don't pay attention to me, I just roll the dice and if even I'm in and odd I'm out).
merlin
Member
I agree but each country is separate not band together.
I understand your logic but the Japanese market plays off of the US market. Their down when we are down and if their up and we are down a negative FV follows. (Don't pay attention to me, I just roll the dice and if even I'm in and odd I'm out).
Europe and Hong Kong appear to be tanking. Time to capitulate.
Heading for the G on Tuesday
I have been in a defensive mode since September/October and was 85% G and 15% I which when things got dicey and skitish I was doing a few IFT with the I fund but gave up trying to time the I fund shifts. So the recent drops didn't cost me more than a few percent of 15% Maybe tomorrow I'll be loosing $5-7k. But as I have said before this market reminded me of the 1970's when the market did nothing but flop around in a static trading range. I think it took the elimination of corporate pensions and the resulting growth of 401Ks in the 1980's that caused the market to rise (along with Regan tax cuts) But I believe it was the 401k growth that started the market moving again. What will it be now?
I became eligible to retire last July. So that is why I have been so defensive for so long. That said, being in the G or F fund at this point with the possibility of inflation pounding on our doors isn't that attractive either. The Fed will get trapped between trying to rally lower rates) the markets while attempting to keep inflation at bay (raise rates). Its another reason to look for other assets for my money outside the market for as long as this takes.
Griffin
Well-known member
This is eeirly reminiscient of the last emergency fed cut. I had bailed out the day before that one also - then it fluctuated for a week or two, always seemingly on the verge of collapse for a retest. But ultimately, it recovered - for a little while.
It really took last week's breakdown below 1380 to convince me that we were in serious trouble, because the fundamental's have not really been atrocious. My feeling all along was that a recession was avoidable.
The technical damage that has been done is a real problem, which was my same argument as the last time. Before I get optimistic again, I want to see where the market struggles with support turned resistance. A move back to 1380 is a real possibility and a subsequent collapse back into the 1200's would be just as likely.
I am going to watch this closely, but for now, I am going to stay on the sidelines. A 500 pt down day on the Dow is not something to just shrug off, there is very real apprehension out there and now that we have a bench mark, we could see a repeat sell off without the relief rally.
Don't discount the magnitude of what happened, we could have seen the 10% drop breaker kickout today if it hadn't been for the emergency rate cut and now the market is cooking in another cut next week - that meeting could produce disappointment if people start expecting another 50 basis points. Beware the buy the rumor, sell the news for this next FOMC meeting.
Watch how the market behaves at resistance - you get two maybe three good shots at a move up before folks will get discouraged. If the trend intraday turns up, then I may start considering a quick play in time to expend my moves for this month,
hessian
Member
Hi Griffin,
On subject, the media's already saying the markets got another rate cut factored in for next week's FOMCs. :suspicious:
If this expectation is already out there, then, would it be logical that markets may likely stay down - just hanging onto this hope, maybe just slightly down to sideways, until then? ).
I thought it was odd, or I missed, a real face/words along with this .75 cut - you take this as kinda strange?
VR
On subject, the media's already saying the markets got another rate cut factored in for next week's FOMCs. :suspicious:
If this expectation is already out there, then, would it be logical that markets may likely stay down - just hanging onto this hope, maybe just slightly down to sideways, until then? ).
I thought it was odd, or I missed, a real face/words along with this .75 cut - you take this as kinda strange?
VR
Griffin
Well-known member
I agree with the you on the fed. The XLF got smacked pretty hard today but compared to where it was earlier in the week, it really did fair pretty good. I attribute that to the "next fed cut".
If we go into the next cut in a raging rally, that could influence the fed to minimize the next cut. The way the market seemed to absorb and then reject MS was bit odd, however, you got to keep that in the context of this week which has been nothing short of bizarre.
I'm looking for a retest anywhere near 1270 and I may just buy back in. I was suprised by how little damage was caused by the rather significant difference between the proposed stimulus package we heard about earlier and what it sounds like that we are actually going to get. Maybe that's what caused today to turn south.
Despite the tardiness of the control measures, they may turn out to be enough to put things back on track although I'm still real skeptical. If I buy in, it will be because I expect the big boys to start tinkering with the market for the positive - becasue they do seem to do that when the hissy fits over.
Still undecided.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
You could get a sell the news reaction. I would not be surprised to see a green morning and a red afternoon.
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