Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

Well I was hoping we would not see a that V turn into a W. Looks like that is now likely, however, keep in mind the bottom of the V is not the bottom of the Y that Tom was talking about in his latest commentary. The Y is the concern and once again 1430 is the key. I hate riding this market down, but I'm staying in since there is no reasonable good play. The chances of the market hitting 1430 and rebounding tomorrow seems more likely then the market breaking below 1430 and retesting the Y.

I don't see a recession coming so I'm not getting out all together

 

[FogSailing]

Griffin:

Thanks for your posts. I stayed in because I still feel like we will break to the upside. I saw the I fund get hit hard last night (after getting back from the boat )and was tempted to bail..but I think Paladin's comment this am stuck with me (i.e. staying in as a positive strategy in light of 9/11). Glad I stuck with it...even if I lose a few pennies today..Hopefully tomorrow we see a turn around, or better yet, a rally this afternoon..followed by another rally tomorrow.

FS

 

[Spaf]

Griffin,

RE: Post # 774......http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=114488&postcount=774

The S&P could be making a "pennant"

Representing a area of consolidation, the basis for a higher low. Key is the breakout. If the breakout is up, we should have our bullish trend back in time for October. If the breakout is down, then what ever trend we had is over.

I would hope that this is some indicator of how the market is going to finally react to the credit debacle. Yes the ecomomy is slowing and housing will take a while to recover, but companies are doing ok. So let's get this credit thing behind us!

Just my 2 cents!

 

[Griffin]

Go back to the Pennant post if you want, I'm in a rush so I can't say much other then, that a break above the pennant at 1485, takes us to 1510 as the next top. I'm still in and staying there although I do not disagree with Tom/Rev Shark. I believe the pennant breaks to the upside and then we pullback later in the week ahead of the Fed to the 1490 range with a hanging anticipation that 1465 becomes the immediate next stop regardless of what the Fed does.

OK here's a chart

View attachment 2108

Griffin,

RE: Post # 774......http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=114488&postcount=774

The S&P could be making a "pennant"

Representing a area of consolidation, the basis for a higher low. Key is the breakout. If the breakout is up, we should have our bullish trend back in time for October. If the breakout is down, then what ever trend we had is over.

I would hope that this is some indicator of how the market is going to finally react to the credit debacle. Yes the ecomomy is slowing and housing will take a while to recover, but companies are doing ok. So let's get this credit thing behind us!

Just my 2 cents!

 

[Griffin]

The yellow line in yesterday's chart showing where the pennant (between the bottom green and the yellow) is not real clear. Look losely and you will see it. It looks like we are going to move down today and stay within the confines of that pennant. Below 1460 looks like a breakdown. Credit worries are being attributed to today's projected selling, that is an obvious derivitive of the Fed, so that leaves us waiting a Fed decision with less optimism that I expected yesterday. That's Ok, because it gives the opportunity for a substantial break to the upside if the Fed does cut (vice versa if they don't). Given some of financial reports, i believe a cut is likely and the Fed statement will likely reflect that the they stand ready to hold off a recession. both will produce the big bang that we need to move upward. The Fed is not going to create a confidence crisis, they beat the media blitz by holding out this long and Ben has proven that he is a man of substance and intellect, his ego won't get in the way of a cut.

Go back to the Pennant post if you want, I'm in a rush so I can't say much other then, that a break above the pennant at 1485, takes us to 1510 as the next top. I'm still in and staying there although I do not disagree with Tom/Rev Shark. I believe the pennant breaks to the upside and then we pullback later in the week ahead of the Fed to the 1490 range with a hanging anticipation that 1465 becomes the immediate next stop regardless of what the Fed does.

OK here's a chart

View attachment 2108

 

[Griffin]

I have not intentionally been quiet this week, but with the end of the FY, I'm up to my eyeballs in alligators. So much so that I am only now catching up on the most recent heated exchange. Volatility certainly brings out the tension.

I almost posted a couple of times, but I hate to sound like a broken record - but I will say it again, because we broke out of that pennant today. Last year, Pointman72 went into a buy and hold strategy coming out of the pullback, no one was able to time the market well enough to outperform him. In fact, there were only a handful of red days for months afterwards.

The talking heads are going to blather on about how bad things must be in order for the Fed to have cut both rates 50 basis points - but lets keep our wits about us, the Fed took an aggressive step to stem off a recession, and the inflationary pressures are adequate to allow such a bold move. I will be suprised if we see a rate cut next meeting, but enjoy the ride for now. The Fed did the right thing at the right time and this will keep the market liquid and business moving.

Enjoy the rally, I may take a day or two here and there to see if I can stretch my lead on the stock funds, but other then that, I am going to ride the bull.

 

[Griffin]

some folks have been talking about the possibility of some late day profit taking and the possibility of a - FV in the I-fund. This type of action may make a one or two day move to the I-fund a worth while scenario. However, the last time I followed this logic, I got caught up in a strengthening dollar - which looks like a very real possibility again. I am only considering the move very tentatively at this point.

 

[FundSurfer]

Dollar should be weakening due to the lowered Fed rate. The 0.25% was already priced in. 0.25% more may yet have to be priced in. This says to me two things. I-fund, lower dollar and C-fund, lower dollar leading to more sales overseas for big caps. But what do I know, I'm in G-fund .

 

[Griffin]

I said I was going to light my cigar at 1530 - we are there, although I would prefer to close above that price before i strike the match . This will be like last year, big caps will give way to mids and smalls as we rally out of this - I'm happiest when I don't touch the I-fund.

Remember last year, I started getting bearish when we started to break into new highs (I think I was working off a cup-and-handle model) except the handle never came - I missed a good run because of it. Lost the top slot to you if memory serves .

Dollar should be weakening due to the lowered Fed rate. The 0.25% was already priced in. 0.25% more may yet have to be priced in. This says to me two things. I-fund, lower dollar and C-fund, lower dollar leading to more sales overseas for big caps. But what do I know, I'm in G-fund .

 

[tsptalk]

Dollar should be weakening due to the lowered Fed rate. The 0.25% was already priced in. 0.25% more may yet have to be priced in. This says to me two things. I-fund, lower dollar and C-fund, lower dollar leading to more sales overseas for big caps. But what do I know, I'm in G-fund .

I mentioned this in a commentary earlier this week, according to sentimentrader.com, the dollar
actually does well historically (last 30-years) after a fed ease...

The last rate cut in 2001 ...

Although it looks like the trend was up before the rate cut that year.
That could make a difference.

 

[FundSurfer]

I mentioned this in a commentary earlier this week, according to sentimentrader.com, the dollar actually does well historically (last 30-years) after a fed ease...

Seems counter intuitive.... looks like the drop gets factored in by traders before it occurs...

 

[Griffin]

Please notice the dollar index fluctuating between 105 and 110, not the current 79 - close to a 50year? (alltime?) low.

Check out the article that produced this chart - note that we have filled in the "red arrow gap" since this article was written in July 2005

http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20050703.html

I mentioned this in a commentary earlier this week, according to sentimentrader.com, the dollar
actually does well historically (last 30-years) after a fed ease...

The last rate cut in 2001 ...

Although it looks like the trend was up before the rate cut that year.
That could make a difference.

 

[Griffin]

Leading indicator's came in at -.6% and the Philadelphia fed will report at noon. The Philly fed might also come in a bit week, but then again - isn't that why the fed cut? rehtorical question - the answer is yes - so is the market going to sell off on bad news - I don't think so, but I do see the opportunity for a little consolidation, before we make the next big push - which will be the push to new highs! Are you ready for a new high on the S&P 500? You ought to be thinking about it, if your not.

 

[fedgolfer]

... i love the way the markets react to backward reflecting data, when the real game is in front of 'em. Makes the dips more obvious and easier to play. Kinda like the release of the fed minutes recently when we all knew they would be bad but measures and actions have taken place since. Thanks to all on this board that keep us ahead of the curve in many situtations.

 

[kaitlinsnana]

Ah, Mr. Griffin, you silly man. If you speak and you're wrong, some woman, somewhere will KNOW, and most likely tell you about it.

 

[Griffin]

Ah, Mr. Griffin, you silly man. If you speak and you're wrong, some woman, somewhere will KNOW, and most likely tell you about it.

Just like I say about the market......you don't have to be totally right, you just need to be mostly right most of the time however, a women is always there to identify the delta.

Thank you for your insight. :laugh:

 

[Sonic]

Griffin,

Thanks for you post. They sure help me making my decisions.

In your opinion what fund will before the best between now and Christmas. Looking at the seasonal charts over the years it looks to me that the S will out perform C. I dont really understand I at all but your thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks in advance

 

[Griffin]

Here's a 6 month and 10 day chart of the S&P500. The blue line is 1530 the green line is 1540. The near future of the market will be dictated by how the market behaves in this zone. Last year we heard similar concerns that the bears are voicing now and yet (despite - the indicators all looking toppy) the market continued to climb the wall of worry.

As far as what I am looking for, - the absence of weakness. If we see this petty .5% drops on hard news, then I do not see any reason to get out. I am continuing to follow the methodology of Pointman72 - who outperformed all of the timers during the recovery. If the market is moving up strongly - it's very hard to gain ground on it - the most you can hope to do, is maybe miss the occassional obvious one day down momentum plays for a .25% point or so, from time to time. Of course, we have yet to see if the market is going to climb the wall.

Will history repeat itself? I expect so, this is also the point where the S-fund (which lagged out of last years recovery) took off. The catalyst for the money to shift from the big caps to the small caps, occurs as a result of stability. The further we get away from this pullback, the more confidence the market will have in the higher risk, small/med caps. I personally do not like the I-fund but it historically does better then the S-fund - however, I do not remotely believe it is a better fund for the timer, because of the x-factor (FV's).

View attachment 2202

 

[Griffin]

We are sliding into close north of 1530 on the S&P with some key reports coming in tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow could be the big day. I hate to reduce myself to a market cheerleader.....but I have to make a exception tonight because it looks like I willl finally get to smoke that stogie.

GO...GO...Baby....GO!

 

[kar_crazy]

hopefully we can smoke that stogie monday evening G L Griffin