Griffin
Well-known member
hopefully we can smoke that stogie monday evening G L Griffin
So far so good I guess! - Australia's up .35%, Japan's up .33% and the Eagles are behind 7pts. Two outta three ain't bad.
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Griffin Account Talk
- Thread starter Griffin
- Start date
So far so good I guess! - Australia's up .35%, Japan's up .33% and the Eagles are behind 7pts. Two outta three ain't bad.
Griffin
Well-known member
Your arteries will thank you.
My market season this year has been a lot like the Phillies - pitiful out of the gate but success in the end (at least so far).
Speaking of "out of the gate" - this morining is fairly remarkable given the news out of citigroup, it makes you wonder if folks are seeing the logic in going long while the market is on sale before the holiday season gets started.
Gold, Oil and Dollars....oh my - maybe it ain't as scary as the bears would like you to believe. Which could also put us back into the fear generated dips resulting in a well defined dip buying channel.
I hear the not to distant sleigh bells and they sound like "cha-ching" - but I do want to see the breakout (down?) before I start timing again.
Griffin
Well-known member
Well folks, I'm heading out to the hot tub to smoke that stogie and take a nice hot soak. Yeah Baby!
The next order of business is to start looking for a channel. At this stage of the game, I will start with the five year picture, consider the all time highs, and look at some of the shorter internal channels. However, I am open for suggestions - if there any souls out there who want to step up to the plate in Griffin fashion and throw something against the wall to see if it sticks, I want to hear from you.
Lets find the sweet spot!
The next order of business is to start looking for a channel. At this stage of the game, I will start with the five year picture, consider the all time highs, and look at some of the shorter internal channels. However, I am open for suggestions - if there any souls out there who want to step up to the plate in Griffin fashion and throw something against the wall to see if it sticks, I want to hear from you.
Lets find the sweet spot!
kar_crazy
Active member
FogSailing
Well-known member
Thanks for posting Griffin..I enjoy your thoughtful discussion of the market and the technical analysis. I don't pretend to be good at this stuff but I do enjoy trying to get smarter about it..
It looked to me like you stayed S since early September....sometime perhaps you will explain your "limited" buy and hold approach..Thanks
FS
It looked to me like you stayed S since early September....sometime perhaps you will explain your "limited" buy and hold approach..Thanks
FS
Griffin
Well-known member
FS,
I take absolutely ZERO credit for the manuever, last year I was buying high and selling low on the "can't possible go any higher against this wall of worry" plays while the hero of the season was.....pointman72. He made a very simple and yet obvious play - buy the bottom of a pullback and stick it out until it is no longer feasible.
IT'S A NO BRAINER - and I have actually enjoyed the break from the nightly T/A. But now I'm refreshed and ready to break some bull balls.
FogSailing
Well-known member
Thanks Griffin...I was aware you had discussed Pointman's strategy for last year...
If we're in a cup and handle pattern, resistance looks to occur around 1560, then the handle...but to where..my guess is that downward resistance is around 1460..
The longer term economics I'm still worried about...
1. The credit crunch is behind us....oh really
2. The housing issue and subprime...not going away quickly..
3. The falling dollar...the Fed's action helped, but it also hurt....
4. Another rate cut...IMO too much too soon if it happens in October
5. Jobs numbers.. can't continue to slide
6. PPI numbers...can't continue to slide
7. The continuing cost of the war and federal deficit..
8. Price of oil...it seems to be going up more than down...
9. Price of Gold...up, up, up..
In the short term..
1. Earnings...IMO..a mixed bag of results for August
2. The Holiday Season...who knows
3. New M&A action from Asia and European investors..
4. The Chinese markets are overbought and due a correction of some kind..
Birchtree is saying the S&P is up by 600 points by the end of 2008..
I hope so..Keep us informed of your thinking and thanks..
FS
If we're in a cup and handle pattern, resistance looks to occur around 1560, then the handle...but to where..my guess is that downward resistance is around 1460..
The longer term economics I'm still worried about...
1. The credit crunch is behind us....oh really
2. The housing issue and subprime...not going away quickly..
3. The falling dollar...the Fed's action helped, but it also hurt....
4. Another rate cut...IMO too much too soon if it happens in October
5. Jobs numbers.. can't continue to slide
6. PPI numbers...can't continue to slide
7. The continuing cost of the war and federal deficit..
8. Price of oil...it seems to be going up more than down...
9. Price of Gold...up, up, up..
In the short term..
1. Earnings...IMO..a mixed bag of results for August
2. The Holiday Season...who knows
3. New M&A action from Asia and European investors..
4. The Chinese markets are overbought and due a correction of some kind..
Birchtree is saying the S&P is up by 600 points by the end of 2008..
I hope so..Keep us informed of your thinking and thanks..
FS
Griffin
Well-known member
LOL.....I hope you did not bring up my not quite infamous "cup and handle" theory (which proved to be disasterously wrong last year) to bring a little "caveat emptor" to my comments.
In light of your evaluation of the news.....golf clap.....the news serves as a driver/a catalyst/a harbinger of doom... the key is to know which is which and not be shaken when evidence is being introduced to build a case versus a closing argument that will send the market tumbling on a verdict.
PS - Birch will say anything to promote the bull. I promote the bull because I actually believe in the bull (balls and all
- I will have to my Mecca to those Icons soon even if it is only to catch a fleeting glimpse of Becky, Erin or Maria).
Griffin
Well-known member
It now seems fairly likely that the FV way overshot today's action, especially in light of the dollar. Therefore, those folks that moved to the I-fund yesterday are going to get spanked tonight. That is an unfortunate and far to common effect of trying to time the I-fund.
Some of you may be considering a move to the I fund today to catch the apparant overshot of the FV.
In previous posts, I have pursued a chain of logic that suggests, moving to the I-fund on the back end of a positive FV can work to your advantage. The reason being that, if we see a substantial upward move later today (but not enough to trigger a subsequent FV) you would pick up that action and tomorrows action by buying in tonight.
While I still believe that logic is sound, you also have to weigh in the dollar action to that calculation, and that does not look good for the I-fund in this particular situation.
I am staying put in the S-fund, as I have for a few weeks now. The DWCP has been lagging the S&P during this recovery (as it did last year). Even if the S&P flounders at the current level, the DWCP will continue to see small gains as it "plays catch up". Last year we saw a substantial portion of the S'funds gains come from "catch up", during the recovery. A .1 to .2% gain daily may seem relatively insignificant, over the course of a week or so, you could be looking at a collective 1% gain, while the S&P consolidates.
Some of you may be considering a move to the I fund today to catch the apparant overshot of the FV.
In previous posts, I have pursued a chain of logic that suggests, moving to the I-fund on the back end of a positive FV can work to your advantage. The reason being that, if we see a substantial upward move later today (but not enough to trigger a subsequent FV) you would pick up that action and tomorrows action by buying in tonight.
While I still believe that logic is sound, you also have to weigh in the dollar action to that calculation, and that does not look good for the I-fund in this particular situation.
I am staying put in the S-fund, as I have for a few weeks now. The DWCP has been lagging the S&P during this recovery (as it did last year). Even if the S&P flounders at the current level, the DWCP will continue to see small gains as it "plays catch up". Last year we saw a substantial portion of the S'funds gains come from "catch up", during the recovery. A .1 to .2% gain daily may seem relatively insignificant, over the course of a week or so, you could be looking at a collective 1% gain, while the S&P consolidates.
FogSailing
Well-known member
Ha..those gals are sure good to look at...
The cup and handle is being discussed by several Wall Street analysts right now....just mentioned it because of the talk...
Appears like the markets are slightly down today....we'll see where theey are headed..
Again... thanks for your insights and thoughts..
FS
The cup and handle is being discussed by several Wall Street analysts right now....just mentioned it because of the talk...
Appears like the markets are slightly down today....we'll see where theey are headed..
Again... thanks for your insights and thoughts..
FS
Griffin
Well-known member
Ha..those gals are sure good to look at...
The cup and handle is being discussed by several Wall Street analysts right now....just mentioned it because of the talk...
Yeah, and they did last year too. I wasn't the only one talking cup and handle.
Appears like the markets are slightly down today....we'll see where theey are headed..
Again... thanks for your insights and thoughts..
FS
Your welcome.
Griffin
Well-known member
http://www.stratfor.com/offers/mail...tent=071002- GIR-header-read&utm_campaign=GIR
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1079fa7a-fd8f-11db-8d62-000b5df10621.html
The first article is an analysis of the implications Sarkozy's rhetoric and the second article gives some details to the heart of the matter.
Oil and Industry with a sprinkle of Dollars and Euros - interesting stuff if your a die hard I-fund fan.
On Friday we have the jobs report - this has triggered two large down days the last two reprot (Sep 7 and Aug 3) so I am a tentatively considering a quick move to a CP position - my sole purpose would be to tack on a little more lead over the stock funds - not achieve anything significant.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1079fa7a-fd8f-11db-8d62-000b5df10621.html
The first article is an analysis of the implications Sarkozy's rhetoric and the second article gives some details to the heart of the matter.
Oil and Industry with a sprinkle of Dollars and Euros - interesting stuff if your a die hard I-fund fan.
On Friday we have the jobs report - this has triggered two large down days the last two reprot (Sep 7 and Aug 3) so I am a tentatively considering a quick move to a CP position - my sole purpose would be to tack on a little more lead over the stock funds - not achieve anything significant.
On dollar, euro, and oil, note how repo purchasing dried up this week. Related?
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
Griffin
Well-known member
You always are going to have the competeng theories, but I think either way this is a market mover. I was thinking we would see the market continue to fluctuate around and we would come into the jobs report some where in the middle, not really in immediate range of a run away bull but not a breakdown cliff hanger story either. So far, I still think that is where things are headed, but we really won't know until 1030 or so EST.
I chalked a lot of the last jobs report to temporary hiring freezes - i'm not sure if that was a view held by many or not. Anyway, I still think that was accurate and I'm not sure if those freezes have been lifted, and if they have been lifted, that the data is going to be reflected in Friday's readings.
Going back to the last two reports, we saw big moves down that reversed themselves the next day (and both lows were inflection points) so I'm kind of thinking that if things continues to trend down, the market is sensing trouble - and the jobs report pushes us down to a sweet buying opportunity - the play being to get out for Friday. If we continue to moderate going into the report, I think the will be a continuation of the current consolidation preping for a move up.
If were serious Red tomorrow (in the low 1530's), I'll get out for Friday (unless it appears that we are going to push to a strong level of support i.e. 1520 on the S&P), if we are more neutral (high 1530s to 1540s)- then I'll continue to hold. Again, I'm only trying to gain bits and pieces - so I'm more inclined to continue this ride - especially since we haven't hit new highs yet.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Another take on Friday! The other side of the Coin?
Wednesday's data, when combined with expectations of a surge in government jobs as teachers resume teaching, "is consistent with our payroll forecast of 115,000 for the month," said Matus.
Earlier on, a tally by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas pointed to a slowdown in the pace of planned workforce reductions in September, but also illustrated the ongoing negative impact of trouble in the housing and mortgage industries. See full story.
"All indications are that the August jobs report overstated weakness in the economy... leaving room for mostly good news in the September data -- aside from an expected bump in the unemployment rate to 4.7%," said analysts at Actions Economics.
"As we wait for Friday's unemployment number we'll probably see further declines," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.
"A strong report could take the rate cut off the table. In a perverse way, strong economic data is seen as a negative for the equity markets in the short-term because it lowers the odds of an October rate cut," said Ruffy.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={168B55B8-A541-4243-944A-E14BE695EE57}
Wednesday's data, when combined with expectations of a surge in government jobs as teachers resume teaching, "is consistent with our payroll forecast of 115,000 for the month," said Matus.
Earlier on, a tally by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas pointed to a slowdown in the pace of planned workforce reductions in September, but also illustrated the ongoing negative impact of trouble in the housing and mortgage industries. See full story.
"All indications are that the August jobs report overstated weakness in the economy... leaving room for mostly good news in the September data -- aside from an expected bump in the unemployment rate to 4.7%," said analysts at Actions Economics.
"As we wait for Friday's unemployment number we'll probably see further declines," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.
"A strong report could take the rate cut off the table. In a perverse way, strong economic data is seen as a negative for the equity markets in the short-term because it lowers the odds of an October rate cut," said Ruffy.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={168B55B8-A541-4243-944A-E14BE695EE57}
Griffin
Well-known member
LOL
There are four possible permutations of any report's follow on cause and effect logical argument
a) The report is strong - the economy is strong - Good for the market
b) The report is strong - the Fed reacts unfavorable - Bad for the market
c) The report is weak - the Fed reacts favorable - Good for the market
d) The report is weak - the economy is weak - Bad for the market
These observations come in a can and you hear some distribution of all four prior to every major report.
Don't you wish we had the "who want's to be a millionaire" lifeline - "poll the audience" - and get that distribution by media (tv, news, blog etc. and which argument was put forth) now that would be cool.
There are four possible permutations of any report's follow on cause and effect logical argument
a) The report is strong - the economy is strong - Good for the market
b) The report is strong - the Fed reacts unfavorable - Bad for the market
c) The report is weak - the Fed reacts favorable - Good for the market
d) The report is weak - the economy is weak - Bad for the market
These observations come in a can and you hear some distribution of all four prior to every major report.
Don't you wish we had the "who want's to be a millionaire" lifeline - "poll the audience" - and get that distribution by media (tv, news, blog etc. and which argument was put forth) now that would be cool.
Bullitt
Well-known member
Griff,
I'm bullish looking forward, but I'm trying to develop an exit strategy if need be. Just trying to get some technical assistance here. If it fails, at what level would you consider a double top confirmation in the SPX? Possibly 1490, 1440, or lower? I see 13700 as an important support line in the case of a DJIA breakdown.
I'm bullish looking forward, but I'm trying to develop an exit strategy if need be. Just trying to get some technical assistance here. If it fails, at what level would you consider a double top confirmation in the SPX? Possibly 1490, 1440, or lower? I see 13700 as an important support line in the case of a DJIA breakdown.
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