Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

Stockcharts - chart school answer

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....t_analysis:chart_patterns:double_top_reversal

I think I see where your going with this, but to realistically call a double top (a major reversal i.e. would be characterized by recession almost depression type issues), I would be looking for a close below 1400 - which I do not remotely see as a possibility - short of some catastrophic global event. Because this would suggest another 10%-15% below that before we would have a bottom. Ultimately, no matter how anemic growth might be in the US, the big three eurozone countries and Japan - the rest of the world is seeing significant growth and that growth requires the stable investment environment of the big economies and, as circular as that logic is - I don't think a depression is realistic.

With that said - The subprime debacle really doesn't seem to have the global juice to knock the world's economy to it's knees right now, it's not even as large as the S&L scandel. We need something truely catastrophic to begin to entertain the possiblity of that happening.

If OPEC starts denominating barrels of oil in Euro's instead of Dollars - then we could have a problem.

 

[Bullitt]

You're right, it would really take a global meltdown to precipitate that scenario. Thanks for the input.

 

[Birchtree]

The emerging markets are the tech bubble of this decade - if they trip we fall.

 

[fedgolfer]

The emerging markets are the tech bubble of this decade - if they trip we fall.

yup, the chinese momentum plays are undeniable... they can't go on like that forever. even w/ billions of chinese converting to the capitalist mantra, they are soooo overvalued. But then again, p/e never held traders back. ride it while we can!!!!!!

 

[Birchtree]

"U.S. Retail Equity Investors: Buy High, Sell Low"

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com

 

[Bullitt]

"U.S. Retail Equity Investors: Buy High, Sell Low"

The exact reason why $27 Billion went into Money Market Funds this past week ending Tuesday. They'll be back once they realize their MM APY dropped .5%. Ohhhh they'll be back.

 

[weatherweenie]

The exact reason why $27 Billion went into Money Market Funds this past week ending Tuesday. They'll be back once they realize their MM APY dropped .5%. Ohhhh they'll be back.

Still waiting for my HELC to drop 0.5%!

 

[Griffin]

Still waiting for my HELC to drop 0.5%!

Read the fine print carefully - how often do they have to reevaluate - quarterly? you know they will bank everything they can at your expense. Here's the good news:suspicious::

http://home-equity.interest.com/home-equity/home_equity_interest_rates_09282007.html

 

[Griffin]

View attachment 2274

Here's a two year chart - recent history shows that, we can see the indicators hang at extreme levels while the market briskly trends up coming out of these pullbacks and we are now on the cusp of new highs. History also shows that most (if not virtually all) timing strategies can't beat the market when it moves upwards this aggresively. I have to be sure to caveat that as "virtually all" - because if there is anyone that can possibly outperform in this environment - it's Ebb.

I'm not remotely suggesting abandoning a timing strategy - but these are the weeks that holding can be the smart move - once the trend is broken - then I will be back to timing on a daily basis.

 

[Birchtree]

Maybe Ebb will stay in the S fund all of next week and the same for the week after. Time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market. You did say it first.

 

[kar_crazy]

might be a good for a blunt :blink:and the hot tub for you there GRIFFIN GREAT job holding on to the snake fund G L

 

[Griffin]

Maybe Ebb will stay in the S fund all of next week and the same for the week after. Time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market. You did say it first.

Birch, that's a real stretch of the imaginiation....and taking a lot of things out of context.

Your comment about time in vs timing - unless you disovered a way to manipulate time - it is a constant....what you do with it is what matters.

The whole point of this exercise is to determine what to do with the time you've got. The conclusions I have drawn from the trends we've seen the past 5 years indicate, timing works best when the trend is slightly up or sideways, a hold strategy works best when the market is climbing steeply and a sprinkling of rapid precision moves can be enormously profitable when volatility is high.

Do you disagree?

 

[Birchtree]

I think we've found common ground. You'll be on the Ebb thread now, right? The last time we had a Primary wave 3 of similar degree as to current times the rally lasted a Fibobacci 8 years.

 

[Griffin]

I think we've found common ground. You'll be on the Ebb thread now, right? The last time we had a Primary wave 3 of similar degree as to current times the rally lasted a Fibobacci 8 years.

I don't think so - do me a favor and first review fractal mathmatic theory.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal

Now take the period from 1965 to 1980 in which a buy and hold strategy would have yielded 20% over fifteen years - i.e. a net loss once you account for inflation. I find it extrordianirly difficult to argue that a buy and hold strategy could be considered a success - and were talking about fifteen years. Thats not a quick Ducati trip through the valley - that half a typical persons career.

Then apply that situation to more recent events (this is where the fractal math comes into play) -condense that down to the period from May to the present - again a buy and hold strategy yields virtually nothing versus Ebb who made more then 10% in the same time frame.

Similarily, I am in a buy and hold strategy because there is a short term trend up. I am willing to deviate from that strategy as soon as it becomes untenable, whereas you are not.

Since you could not answer my last question, try this much simpler one on for size -

Is there ever a good time to time?

 

[Birchtree]

Try taking it back to March 2003 and then refigure your numbers through today. It looks a little different. Now take into account the maneuver of DCAing all the way up - leaving all buys to fate. The numbers will look just as good as yours - that's what happened last year. This year will undoubtedly be just as successful. Is there ever a time to be a timer - sure, I'll be doing it in the Spring and without the Ebb. Do you think the oceanic made any gains this week or you don't really care anyway. Timing a fund is a lot easier than a portfolio but I'm fully prepared to try gunslinger mode with my tugboat now that I have enough accumulation to make the risk worthwhile. We'll see how it works out. Maybe I'll simply follow your moves - wouldn't that be neat - you making me money. Snort.

 

[Griffin]

Try taking it back to March 2003 and then refigure your numbers through today.

My god.....I think you may actually be starting to get a handle on what this board is about.

What you did just now is a large (fractal) version of exactly why I have been in a buy and hold strategy the last few weeks. The past few months, we had a significant breakdown which reached bottom in mid August. Similarily we had Recessionary conditions that started in 2000 bottom out in 2003.

So my current buy and hold position is exactly like your current buy and hold position - if you are willing to admit that your are going to adjust strategies when the time becomes appropriate. According to this comment you are:

Is there ever a time to be a timer - sure, I'll be doing it in the Spring

Before I go any further I need to make one comment - "DCAing" hmmm. let's be crystal clear...Everybody on this board has contributions from their paycheck going into their funds - mine is 17% in order for me to achieve the IRS maximum. The contribution that you do in the name of DCA - is absolutely no different then the paycheck contributions that are made by anyone else - and if you understand the true concept of DCA - paycheck contributions are not considered DCAs under most accepted financial management stratgies. With that said - let me get back to the concept of fractals.

The similarities of our current investment approaches are identical if you look at them from a fractal theory. However, if this is accurate and we expand the periods we are discussing forward and backwards through time, then you should have attempted to conduct capital preservation from 2000 to 2003, did you have a significant portion of the tugboat in the G and F funds during these years? and if not, why?

Applying the same logic moving forward - you are suggesting the market is headed for recessionary conditions in the spring...correct?

Where we differ in our approach - is on time frames - Agreed? If you do agree with that statement - then the way we look at economic data and news should be a function of our timing horizon's. Do you agree with that statement?

Maybe I'll simply follow your moves - wouldn't that be neat - you making me money. Snort.

I would never consider myself a timing system - Following me would be very frustrating because, you would have to log in at 1150 am EST everyday. While, I will admit that I do try to get my comments out there in time for them to be useful, since I don't consider myself a timing system - I view that as a guideline - rather then a rule. Follow me if you want, but that is not my goal. I put out my comments because I view myself and this board more as a peer review workgroup. I don't consider my role as a leader but rather as a facilitator. If my comments make you money that makes me very happy - that is absolutely my intention.

The reason you and I have conflict, is that I don't think you are clear on the timing horizon aspect of this board. The reason I say this, is because of your tendency to flood the board with bullish perspectives, whenever the board gets very bearish. Your operating on a different time horizon then the majority of the board, and yet your actions are inconsistent with that approach.

 

[Birchtree]

Gee, so many questions and so little time. I don't think I've ever been inconsistant on this board with my approach. We do function on different time horizons - I'm future oriented because of the weight of my accounts. Right now I'm concentrating on 2010 for the oceanic. In the Spring we will probably have another blind side correction not precipitated by a recession but who knows what the catalyst will eventually be. I plan to side step that consolidation by moving the tugboat to the G fund. We will likely be over 15,600 on the Dow and 1670 on the SPX by then - another 1500 point drop would be tolerable for the oceanic and why not move the tugboat. I'm here to learn and I have.

I use DCA as my portfolio redeemer. Buying more shares on the cheap makes all the difference - that's what I did during 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003. I was mostly in the C fund and made a midcourse change into the S fund sometime in the spring of 2002 and rode the S fund until Feb. 2004 when I switched back to the C fund. The secret is to continue the DCA all the way to the bottom and then all the way back up. I didn't loose a penny when it was all over - came out smelling like a rose - but it did take courage, knowledge and pure guts. There was nothing wrong with that approach. It served me well.

I'm bullish because we are looking at tremendous opportunity. All in all, this is, without question, the strongest all around up trend seen in money flow since records have been kept. It would be a real shame to lose out on this once in a lifetime opportunity to fully exploit it. What we're witnessing here is the most incredible display of liquidity strength ever seen. And I'm set to rock. I was surprised to see you in a buy and hold configuration but I can understand that.

Take my friendly advise and buy some individual stocks you'll see the difference in technique that is required. I gave you my oceanic portfolio so you have ample choices. I do think we are getting along better - we have the same goals in wanting to help others. We just have our own techniques and there is plenty of room available for both timers and buy and holders. After all, the sign on the front door says TSP Talk - not TSP Timing Talk.

 

[ChemEng]

...the rally lasted a Fibobacci 8 years.

This this longer or shorter than 8 calendar years?

 

[Griffin]

Birch,

You are a consistent buy and holder - I did not dispute that and the fact that you rode the 2000-2003 recession out in stocks - proves that.

While our methods may parallel from time to time, that is simply a coincidence due to the nature of the market, we really have no common ground.

I have absolutely no interest in discussing the fundamentals of payroll contributions and wether or not they constitue a DCA. Since you have no interest in discussing Capital Preservation, this conversation is pointless.

Most people who read my thread know I don't post that much and although I due try to slip some humor in from time to time, for the most part I have very limited time and would prefer to stay focused on issues germane to current market conditions. For that reason, please don't waste my time by posting in my thread.

Thank you.

 

[Griffin]

The After hours market is up strong and the enthusism from Friday looks like it is going to carry into Monday. I suspect it will and maybe even into Tuesday. Unfortunately, there is nothing anyone can do until Tuesday night via an IFT Tuesday morning.

View attachment 2282

The chart speaks for itself. It is not my intention to suggest that the I-fund is going to gain 5.1% because the EFA does not follow the well developed channels we see in the US markets due to the influence of the dollar. In fact I would not be suprised to see the dollar index rise and the EFA to find resistance somewhere in between.

Bloomberg is showing most of the fuels down - this takes some of the headwind energy cost pressures off the market - but this could be real short lived. I wouldn't be suprised to see this to happen right as the market moves to the top of the channels I've shown.

I am going to shrug off my B&H strategy in favor of a dip buying strategy when we hit these levels.