Griffin Account Talk

[cap32]

could be a good thing if your in the market already

 

[hessian]

Griffin,
I'm trying a cut&paste from a different post that (in hope of getting your specific advice. You are one I've noted has perspective that is similar to mine and valued expertise. To be honest, I tried to ask this in other posts, and discussions seemed to go in unrelated directions. Only seeking advice whether following has merit, or is it off-base (all from Friday 10-05-2007, & Sunday...in Dr. Faustus's Acct. Talk, re hessian

vbmenu_register ("postmenu_120704", 11239 true); Newbie Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7
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Re: 12%ayear's Account Talk
Jeff, 350,
While its important whether/not a future rate cut is coming, it seems almost futile trying to out-guess the Fed (look at last time) - i think its how they want it. Just focusing just on Tuesday's FOMC minutes, and trying to figure out the effect of the minutes for next week (or 2)...
Here's what we know:
- their last 50/50 cuts were largely intended to resolve "confidence" - people's & corporate uncertainty in the market;
- All "hard" issues are still out there.

Speculation:
- Fed's hope was, and still is, to buy time (maybe problems resolve themselves over time), in either case current problems are pushed down the road to to sometime (hopefully, maybe) where conditions may be more condusive to resolution.
- Just 2 months ago the Fed's main concern was inflation - there are negative effects of cuts, and this on their radar (though they won't admit it publicly).

How much of this will be alluded to in the FOMC minutes is unknown (as 350 suggested). If (big if) some of this comes out, how would the market respond next week (or 2)?
I expect that mintues will say - they will be monitoring all this closely - could be taken to mean a tightening move is NOT off the table - depends how things look [at next meeting]! Again, how will the market respond ??
________________________________________
To Dr. F,
Mostly, my thinking [and move to 100% G] was worry on reaction to those FOMC Minutes on Tues. Since the above post, I also heard that Fed's Poole and another "Fed-Open-Mouth-Commentor" will be speaking Tuesday - basically confirming "G" move, since you know as well, the usual effect of these mouths on the Market.

Basically, I'm with others that feel a pull-back here, short-term at least, maybe thru all next week (/longer?) - but looking at this as a coming opportunities to DCA-in! (Right now the longer term market is looking OK, but at same time I'd suggest vigilence for a larger-than-expected drop). Another postee commented to what I'd said - that the "Big-Boys" may also press numbers to move Markets down (to get another rate cut). Sorry for length of this post, but seems were on our own (we even apparently lost Tom's commentary now due to pay-services).
VR
Your thoughts??
PS Now, dollar seems to be re-bounding, too.

 

[Griffin]

I apologize for not getting back to this earlier, my router took a dump right in the middle of my response yesterday.

Go back to last fall and think about the news at the time - Soft Landings, Goldilocks, etc....it's the same rhetoric that your hearing again - and for exactly the same reasons.

Bottom line up front - in your trading strategy, you want to capitalize on weakness. We have yet to see any real weakness and until we do, the risk of missing a 1-2% gainer far outweighs the need to avoid a couple of consecutive .3% down days. Therefore, I would be very cautious about taking up a defensive strategy - it may be months before we get our next pullback, and missing 10% between now and then is a chance you don't want to take, especially knowing you will probably only get hit for 3-5% when the pullback comes - if you have the cajones to sell on a red day when the time comes.

The Fed is going to try and engineer a soft landing for the housing market. The Fed knows that it needs to be vigilant on inflation fighting - so it can have the flexibility to make these moves when it needs to.

Was there ever any doubt in anyone's minds that Bernake was caught between a rock and a hard place when he took over? Bernake has done an outstanding job as Fed chairmen - and that ridiculous inquisition by presidential hopefuls into his actions is exactly that - ridiculous. Bernake's not going to drive the economy into the ground, he's demonstrated flexibility and adaptability - and that is providing a huge confidence boost to the market.

You have to keep in mind that the Fed is not the Almighty - it can not undue the devaluation being caused by the Executive and Legislative branches, nor does it control the Treasury. For every dollar we spend to import oil - we spend another dollar in Iraq....When you spend like that - there's little that can be done by the Fed to offset the dollar - except grow the economy - that is Ben's only weapon against deflation - and he needs to work it hard - he knows that. Therefore, he is going to act in the best interest of growing the net economy (real growth - not inflationary growth).

 

[Griffin]

Share price oct 9

40 - 19.01
30 - 18.03
20 - 17.12
10 - 15.63
Inc - 13.49
G - 12.15
F - 11.57
C - 17.57
S - 21.27
I - 25.73

 

[Griffin]

Tom's comments this morning provide more evidence that it may be time to let go of the B&H strategy and get ready to initiate a dip buying strategy.

In fact, I actually went as far as to try and check how much I have accumulated in the G fund (that's where I have all my contributions go initially) - only to realize - I DO NOT KNOW MY ACCOUNT NUMBER.

If you've been following my strategy and you haven't done an IFT for several weeks - you better get on the stick and get TSP to mail out your account number if you don't have it already.

I will be continuing my B&H until the USPS delivers the goods. I'm OK with that, because I still believe we have another 1.5% to the upside before we will see this market change it's behavior.

 

[nnuut]

Griffin, I think you can use your old PIN if you call the Thrift Line!!!

 

[Griffin]

Griffin, I think you can use your old PIN if you call the Thrift Line!!!

Good deal. Thanks.

 

[fedgolfer]

Griffin, I think you can use your old PIN if you call the Thrift Line!!!

Still need your account # because they don't take the SSN#. Just this AM, I was on hold for about 15 minutes before they picked up. You have to talk to a service rep and have them do it... can't do it automated on the phone line. Absolutely unacceptable. Imagine if Vanguard or an online broker lost that much capabilitiy/functionality?!

 

[nnuut]

That's NOT good!!!!!!:suspicious:

 

[fedgolfer]

I should clarify -- you still need your acct # to do it on the automated phone line. But if you talk to a rep, all you need is your SSN.

 

[Griffin]

Yesterday's late day sell-off should be the taken as a sign that the market is back into the dip-buying mentality. Expect the growth rate of the market to shallow over the next few weeks.

We see a lot of indicators are stretched to their upper ends, but just like this time last year, we could very easily see the flexibility we need to move higher achieved in one and two day dips, followed by strong dip buying rallies.

I'm still waiting on the post office to deliver my account number but I am definitely getting back into timing mode. I can see a my first move early next week (if possible).

 

[fedgolfer]

Coincidentally, today is the sell-day in the 3day cycle, where traders look to lock profits on the high, believed to be made last (in the afternoon session). Monday is the sell short-day... obviously this isn't exact and can be stretched or condensed into time frames that aren't exactly 3days. But the take home message is that there should be some short interest coming back in after yesterday's blip... like any system there's contrarian plays and monday or early next week could buck some bulls off and we could go higher based on the fact that we're low in the channels again.

 

[nsurf9]

I called TSP and a rep faxed my new account number and even made an interfund transfer by phone. Now, I when I bring up my account it only brings up my balance - with no option to transfer funds.

 

[Griffin]

I called TSP and a rep faxed my new account number and even made an interfund transfer by phone. Now, I when I bring up my account it only brings up my balance - with no option to transfer funds.

Thanks, I am going to pull that trigger.

 

[Griffin]

Apparantly they will make the IFTs but they would not fax it. I guess you have to sweet talk them to get it faxed.

I called TSP and a rep faxed my new account number and even made an interfund transfer by phone. Now, I when I bring up my account it only brings up my balance - with no option to transfer funds.

 

[Griffin]

We have drifted to the bottom of the channel (see Toms Chart this morning) and now it appears we may be on the verge of a move lower.

This is the point where you begin the quest for those little whispers in the wind that help you to make the call between taking up a safety position or stay in to wait for the next dip buying session.

I'm ready to pull the trigger and eat the loss of the last few days if we move lower from here - that's the discipline. You have to be willing to sell on a red day - that's the state of mind that justifies your ability to time effectively.

With that said - NOT TODAY!

I see this as a consolidation - we can expect a certain amount of weakness in the 3Q profits - but the thing that will move the market lower - is evidence of a recession. You won't hear folks complaining about the Fed .5% rate cuts this week.

 

[Griffin]

I believe we need to see some dip buying action before too much longer or we could see another pullback.

Gauging investors action to earnings reports is the key here and the Tech sector is going to be critical to how the market behaves over the next few months. We have Intel, Yahoo and IBM on tap. J&J came in weak.

As things currently stand I am looking to take up a CP position. I have this thing about broken channels - when channels get broken, usually within a very short time frame, you see a substantial move in that direction - in this case down.

It may be that the market was betting that the 3Q earnings were going to come in stronger then expectations creating a suprise upside, with that reality starting to look like it is slipping away - there may be a lot more optimism out there then was warranted, creating some panic.

 

[fedgolfer]

I believe we need to see some dip buying action before too much longer or we could see another pullback.

Gauging investors action to earnings reports is the key here and the Tech sector is going to be critical to how the market behaves over the next few months. We have Intel, Yahoo and IBM on tap. J&J came in weak.

As things currently stand I am looking to take up a CP position. I have this thing about broken channels - when channels get broken, usually within a very short time frame, you see a substantial move in that direction - in this case down.

It may be that the market was betting that the 3Q earnings were going to come in stronger then expectations creating a suprise upside, with that reality starting to look like it is slipping away - there may be a lot more optimism out there then was warranted, creating some panic.

great insight, thanks Grif. Have to agree with you on the Q3 earnings hopes... although its kinda like backwards facing econ data... we know its not going to be great, but is it gonna be better than the sandbagged estimates. I'm on the fence as to where the markets can go... charts and some tech indicators actually look extremely bearish. If we can't go back above 1553'ish in the s&P in today's buy day cycle and by the end of tomorrow's sell-day cycle... we've established strong negative biases, and have to consider playing the handle. That's a lot of hoo-haa for let's hope if we rally today, its not just a dead cat bounce.

 

[Griffin]

great insight, thanks Grif. Have to agree with you on the Q3 earnings hopes... although its kinda like backwards facing econ data... we know its not going to be great, but is it gonna be better than the sandbagged estimates. I'm on the fence as to where the markets can go... charts and some tech indicators actually look extremely bearish. If we can't go back above 1553'ish in the s&P in today's buy day cycle and by the end of tomorrow's sell-day cycle... we've established strong negative biases, and have to consider playing the handle. That's a lot of hoo-haa for let's hope if we rally today, its not just a dead cat bounce.

I just moved to the F-fund - I don't see the market bouncing back tomorrow - Awhile ago someone asked me what I thought would cause a double top. At that time, I did not believe that we would actually see a recession and I did not see the subprime being the cause. However, I have to admit that this "Big Bank" plan to stem off the credit crunch has me thinking that there was a lot more damage done to the economy then was being admitted.

The US has long been the growth engine of the world. However, the new belief is that this is going to change and the US growth would be supported by emerging markets (primarily China). Perhaps this credit crunch and the ultimate realty of the geopolitical situations brewing around the world are making folks rethink the feasibility of that model. Maybe, just maybe...... the world needs the stability of the United States economy and the backing of the US military to maintain the global growth engine and with that slipping.......could make for a very bumpy ride.

 

[350zCommTech]

With the G paying tomorrow, why gamble with the F fund?

Besides, the TNX chart suggests yields might move higher for the next month or two.