Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

Why is there no growth? I thought growth has just slowed and is the main concern of the Fed now, even over inflation?

I'm just going off the Fed - we are seeing growth slow - and given the vast majority of growth in the past few years has been in select bubbles (which are now busting) do you expect to see that trend continue?

I have a suspician the rest of the market will move to the 50 dma and come in line with financials? That certainly would not be in line with the bullish outside day as Paladin suggested.

I figure tomorrow will follow through on the last trading hour, or not and I will move accordingly. That definitely sounds like chasing, but we have a new trend developing and that makes for some increased volatility. Speaking of which - the VIX seems to have made a move to a short term resistance and stepped back, that's bullish.

Two votes for the bulls.....OK, I'm definitely not getting emotionally attached to any particular position, I almost went "I" today - I actually cancelled out of the IFT screen around 1130.

 

[benitocj]

This is a peer board, I'm not an economist either, but I do have a background in analyzing data but for the most part, I'm just a news junkie. I highly recommend doing some real reading and I do recommend Jim Cramer - I learned a lot from Real Money. I Also recommend Bulkowski's Getting started in chart patterns.

The only thing with letting news in on an analytical model, is that it will most likely introduce bias. Best thing to do is let the numbers speak for themselves, and not try to anticipate. It is like shooting a gun, you anticipate the firing, and end up missing the target .

 

[Griffin]

The only thing with letting news in on an analytical model, is that it will most likely introduce bias. Best thing to do is let the numbers speak for themselves, and not try to anticipate. It is like shooting a gun, you anticipate the firing, and end up missing the target .

That is exactly why I am not a system - models do what they do but they don't adapt - I don't use a model - I use charts, indicators, history, seasonality and some times I'm a contrarian if those indicators have been wrong lately because of undue emotion in the market.

Breath Relax Aim Squeeze - works just fine on paper targets but when your bells' been rung by an IED and someone is actually shooting at you it's prudent to be adaptable :nuts:.

The news itself is a datasource - disconnect from the opinion and look at the content and recognize that there is some measureable number of people reading that piece based upon the popularity of the source. It all plays into the psychology of the market - systems can't tell you how much fear and optimism are in the market, they can only incorporate the latest readings from the VIX.

I'm not knocking systems at all - but I'm here to learn as much as I can so I can determine how involved I want to be or if I want to follow a system. There may come a day when I conclude that I can't outperform Ebb (in a way that makes it worth my time).

To my credit, I've never riden a pullback for more then about 35% of the trip down - it's at the bottom that I tend to make my mistakes - I'm learning though!

 

[Griffin]

I'm expecting todays weakness to take us to support in the 1520 or 1500 areas. I really can't say until things get rolling what seems likely, but that is really irrelevant, because I see an obvious (to the general population) buying opportunity shaping up and I expect the dip buyers to step in.

All we have over the next few business days are earnings and housing. Expect weakness out of housing (duh ) and mixed earnings - this is the kind of situation where the tail will wag the dog (i.e. big money isn't going to play much) so the indicators will actually drive the market.

I am almost certain I will buy in today.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

S&P options expiration tomorrow. 20th anniversary of black Friday and was also S&P options exp'y. Was a 27% loss from Friday morn through Monday cob. Circuit breakers were put in place afterwards.

 

[fedgolfer]

I'm expecting todays weakness to take us to support in the 1520 or 1500 areas.

You're in a nice position, chosing your entry point... I however, have been bag holding the past couple days despite the chart weakness -- hoping for support at certain levels. XLF will go below that 50 day with BAC tanking the financials pre-open... I guess all the financials are putting all their bad news into Q3 earnings. I haven't looked at the earnings calendar to see when the last of the banks have reported. Once they do, it seems like we're at good levels to buy... so, I'm once again reluctant to go into capital preservation mode and get whipsawed.

 

[Griffin]

S&P options expiration tomorrow. 20th anniversary of black Friday and was also S&P options exp'y. Was a 27% loss from Friday morn through Monday cob. Circuit breakers were put in place afterwards.

Oh no!

I think I read that article last night too, was it on CNN? or Yahoo? about black monday - 1987, I think they also brought it up on CNBC - nostalgia or does it actually effect today's market psychology - I doubt it.

Now what is real is the options expiration issue - tomorrow could see further weakness if we get a replay of yesterday - with another big end of day rally or if we are headed into another pullback.

As discussed previously, we are having slowing growth which makes it hard to set new highs because you really need to whoop up on inflation with these oil prices, to see real growth. However, it's not really a cause for a panic sell off. I dont see us moving to the bottom of the multi year channel in one swoop like over the summer - instead I see more of an early 2004 scenario where we slip sideways and slightly down.

 

[Griffin]

You're in a nice position, chosing your entry point... I however, have been bag holding the past couple days despite the chart weakness -- hoping for support at certain levels. XLF will go below that 50 day with BAC tanking the financials pre-open... I guess all the financials are putting all their bad news into Q3 earnings. I haven't looked at the earnings calendar to see when the last of the banks have reported. Once they do, it seems like we're at good levels to buy... so, I'm once again reluctant to go into capital preservation mode and get whipsawed.

Lots of financials tomorrow as well - but I suspect today may move in anticipation of that news.

 

[offtrack]

I wish I shared your optimism. Plunge protection team has been out in force keeping the market up but for how long? Someone is going to have to get stuck with the button sooner or later. Falling dollar is going to promote inflation. I've been watching the action with CFC today and have market reservations about what MIGHT happen when they report earnings. Makes you wonder who's buying it today. I would like to be a fly on the wall at G-7 meeting

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071017/ap_on_re_eu/finance_meetings_2

 

[350zCommTech]

I've been watching the action with CFC today and have market reservations about what MIGHT happen when they report earnings. Makes you wonder who's buying it today. I would like to be a fly on the wall at G-7 meeting

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071017/ap_on_re_eu/finance_meetings_2

When does CFC report?

thanks.

 

[offtrack]

When does CFC report?

thanks.

Next week on Friday

 

[Griffin]

So short of waiting for CFC to report next Friday, what's the market waiting for

Google Caterpillar and you'll find out :cheesy:

Seriously though, does anyone remember the monster drop google had when it missed projected earnings in 1Q (I think it was 1Q). Then there's Cat - which is being run like a well-oiled machine (pun intended) and definitely has within it's grasp the ability to suprise this market.

If these two come in on or above expectations - tomorrow could be a beautiful day. I guess what I am getting at - is (believe it or not) - sharp capitilistic management and the American work ethic may claim the day.

I bet the farm: I'm all in the S.

 

[350zCommTech]

So short of waiting for CFC to report next Friday, what's the market waiting for

Google Caterpillar and you'll find out :cheesy:

Seriously though, does anyone remember the monster drop google had when it missed projected earnings in 1Q (I think it was 1Q). Then there's Cat - which is being run like a well-oiled machine (pun intended) and definitely has within it's grasp the ability to suprise this market.

If these two come in on or above expectations - tomorrow could be a beautiful day. I guess what I am getting at - is (believe it or not) - sharp capitilistic management and the American work ethic may claim the day.

I bet the farm: I'm all in the S.

I don't know about Google, but expectations are high.

As for CAT, I read or heard somewhere that they might be impacted by the slowdown in commercial and residential construction.

Charts and graphs said to buy in today, but I don't think they matter for tomorrow.

GL.

 

[Frixxxx]

......
I bet the farm: I'm all in the S.

I'm with you....GO GOOGLE!

 

[fedgolfer]

So short of waiting for CFC to report next Friday, what's the market waiting for

Google Caterpillar and you'll find out :cheesy:

Seriously though, does anyone remember the monster drop google had when it missed projected earnings in 1Q (I think it was 1Q). Then there's Cat - which is being run like a well-oiled machine (pun intended) and definitely has within it's grasp the ability to suprise this market.

If these two come in on or above expectations - tomorrow could be a beautiful day. I guess what I am getting at - is (believe it or not) - sharp capitilistic management and the American work ethic may claim the day.

I bet the farm: I'm all in the S.

How sure are you on CAT? The the 3 month chart looks like a good time to buy... on a symetrical inverted-shoulder back to the 7/27 candlestick... plus off of what appears to be a double bottom. I'm so overweight tech now, I need something that can get a big boost if the markets turn, which they appear to be, and the global growth pumping continues... cat seems like a good one. The hammer candlestick coming off a low is usually a good sign to buy -- buyers overcoming the sellers.

I imagine their 3 qtr earnings may dissappoint because of the US housing/builder bubble... I wonder if their global growth is enought to suprise and beat estimates? Thoughts? I've heard China and Dubai have been buying of CAT products like crazy.

 

[Griffin]

I don't do the individul stock thing here at the TSP board - although - Cat is looking like a winner and they have a great overseas partnership with Japan - I'm am very partial to Caterpillar - but as a whole I would not be surprised if they did better then hit the numbers.

Folks may say Cat is getting hurt by the construction slowdown - but their new sales associated with residential construction is only a fraction of the their global sales and they have really been expanding their versatility into every size, configuration and type of equipment. I think it's a great company and they are in every part of the world.

How sure are you on CAT? The the 3 month chart looks like a good time to buy... on a symetrical inverted-shoulder back to the 7/27 candlestick... plus off of what appears to be a double bottom. I'm so overweight tech now, I need something that can get a big boost if the markets turn, which they appear to be, and the global growth pumping continues... cat seems like a good one. The hammer candlestick coming off a low is usually a good sign to buy -- buyers overcoming the sellers.

I imagine their 3 qtr earnings may dissappoint because of the US housing/builder bubble... I wonder if their global growth is enought to suprise and beat estimates? Thoughts? I've heard China and Dubai have been buying of CAT products like crazy.

 

[ATCJeff]

If I remember correctly, the CEO of CAT was on CNBC about a month or two ago. He said that international sales now account for more then 50% of CAT's sales.

 

[CountryBoy]

I don't do the individul stock thing here at the TSP board - although - Cat is looking like a winner and they have a great overseas partnership with Japan - I'm am very partial to Caterpillar - but as a whole I would not be surprised if they did better then hit the numbers.

Folks may say Cat is getting hurt by the construction slowdown - but their new sales associated with residential construction is only a fraction of the their global sales and they have really been expanding their versatility into every size, configuration and type of equipment. I think it's a great company and they are in every part of the world.

I just got started in individual stocks last November and pretty much a small timer (14 stocks in my ROTH) but I do find the research interesting. I'm far from an expert, but the learning helps keep this aging mine a little sharper.

I love CAT, it just got to high to quick for me and got by me before I could get in. I'll wait for a drawback, although it kinda goes against my baser instincts for me to root for a pullback. I kinda look for a pull back to happen after the Bejing Olmpics (construction though India is heating up) or the 2008 election (raising of taxes), if not before. I agree with Griffin, Home construction is not hurting CAT, the tlaking heads said UTX was hurt by the reduction of Trane AC sales, but again that is only about 5% of there overall sales. Spending over 7 years in heavy construction prior to going Fed, a drop in heavy construction ie infrastructure and mining prices will be the time to look at CAT again, along with other related stocks, a shipping stock has my interest also, DSX.

I try to have at least 25% of my ROTH in the overseas market. GE, UTX, SLB and BHP along with some overseas exposure with PG and JNJ more than cover what I want in International exposure.

Well enough blather from this neophyte.

CB

 

[fedgolfer]

thanks Country, I appreciate all comments! I like/own BHP and SLB too.

BTW, GOOG beat and is up after hours.

 

[CountryBoy]

thanks Country, I appreciate all comments! I like/own BHP and SLB too.

BTW, GOOG beat and is up after hours.

Your welcome fed,

Yeah I saw that on GOOG, I just hope that's enough to have a good day tomorrow. I read that the CEO of BHP is planning to be more agggressive in India. Currently they are only about 4% in India.

CB