Griffin Account Talk

[airlift]

Thanks again!!

 

[airlift]

By the way, where can I buy one of those texting dictionaries?

 

[kaitlinsnana]

By the way, where can I buy one of those texting dictionaries?

OTOH i'll SIO til it's BTTT Do YOU know what this means? It IS a different world. When my granddaughter went to public kindergarten and got a school ID card, she called to tell me she FINALLY had a charge card.

Gail

 

[Eldritch Flatus]

OTOH on the other hand
SIO sit it out
BTTT ????

 

[Griffin]

OTOH on the other hand
SIO sit it out
BTTT ????

I thought SIO was "stick it out"

BTTT - back to the top

 

[Eldritch Flatus]

I thought SIO was "stick it out"

BTTT - back to the top

K .....

 

[Griffin]

Folks,

If your still considering country wide as the catalyst of doom for Friday - it tanked another 8.11% again today - I'm not sure how much worse country wide can get - it's now down from around $45 a few months ago to $14.

Can it get worse? something to think about as we mull over what's happening.

I'm not good at timing daily volatility, so I'm going to sit tight until we see something significant happen one way or the other. It looks like today may have confirmed a retest.

 

[love-to-bike]

Actually, Countrywide wouldn't be a bad investment right now if you had some Vegas money....

 

[350zCommTech]

Folks,

Can it get worse? something to think about as we mull over what's happening.

I'm not good at timing daily volatility, so I'm going to sit tight until we see something significant happen one way or the other. It looks like today may have confirmed a retest.

Actually, Countrywide wouldn't be a bad investment right now if you had some Vegas money....

Yes, it could go to zero.

 

[ATCJeff]

Folks,

If your still considering country wide as the catalyst of doom for Friday - it tanked another 8.11% again today - I'm not sure how much worse country wide can get - it's now down from around $45 a few months ago to $14.

Can it get worse? something to think about as we mull over what's happening.

How about they decide to delay reporting Friday? You heard it here first.

 

[Griffin]

Yes, it could go to zero.

It's P/E ratio is now down to 3.58 it's selling at 13.82 and it's projected EPS is -1.1.

So at this stage of the game, the value of CFC is all in speculation of it's ability to fix it's problems.

Does it matter if it comes in a few pennies high or low? Countrywide is smacked for the quarter anyway. I'm not sure that their earnings are going to be relevant by Friday at least in terms of it's ability to move the larger market.

The longer we sit at this level and churn the less likely I am to step to the side, the technical picture is providing the bottom we need for a move up.

 

[Griffin]

How about they decide to delay reporting Friday? You heard it here first.

LOL......consider yourself electroniclly slapped for speaking such blasphemy :laugh:

now shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

[ATCJeff]

It's P/E ratio is now down to 3.58 it's selling at 13.82 and it's projected EPS is -1.1.

So at this stage of the game, the value of CFC is all in speculation of it's ability to fix it's problems.

Does it matter if it comes in a few pennies high or low? Countrywide is smacked for the quarter anyway. I'm not sure that their earnings are going to be relevant by Friday at least in terms of it's ability to move the larger market.

The longer we sit at this level and churn the less likely I am to step to the side, the technical picture is providing the bottom we need for a move up.

It's not the earnings I'm worried about. It's the news that comes out explaining the earnings results.

 

[Griffin]

It's not the earnings I'm worried about. It's the news that comes out explaining the earnings results.

Are you worried that they will blame some moron on the board, or the chief moron? - because with one rat jumping ship today, I think the market has now priced in this news.

If they fired Mozilo, the stock would probably pick up 10% in a day

 

[ATCJeff]

Are you worried that they will blame some moron on the board, or the chief moron? - because with one rat jumping ship today, I think the market has now priced in this news.

If they fired Mozilo, the stock would probably pick up 10% in a day

It's more is they report foreclosures and new delinquencies are still increasing. Maybe spilling over into other markets.

 

[Griffin]

However, don't forget that I was the one who pointed out a "bullish outside day" formation right before the S-Fund tanked to the tune of -2.63% last Friday... :embarrest:

Before you go and knock yourself, I'll remind you I bought into the S fund just in time to catch that knife right between the eyes.

If we keep agreeing, we can be a contrarian indicator for everyone else!

 

[airlift]

Frankly, you are both doing great work!

 

[Boxholder]

I am baffled about what to think about Countrywide"s report in the morning before the bell. The more I study about it, I'm beginning to think that the worse their report, the better the market will respond since it is just more proof that the market needs the boost from the Fed next Wednesday. I'm just not accustomed to that kind of thinking and am reluctant about taking any chances, but if I don't, I just might miss the train and have to wait on another one like I'm doing now.

 

[Griffin]

Here's a positive article on countrywide. Dont take this the wrong way and think I'm advocating for CFC - but the article provides an overview of CFC mortgage restructurg plan.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/24/real_estate/Countrywide_plan_wins_support/index.htm

As I said yesterday, the value in CFC is in their ability to fix their problems. In 2006 the estimated about 5% of their mortgages were delinquint.

You have to figure that's gone up so if 10K represents (lets swag it at) 7% of their loans, then the 72K that they are worried about would represent another 50%? does that sound right?

That sounds like there is a lot of potential bad debt out there

Here's the not so up beat article

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/23/news/companies/countrywide_walkup/index.htm?postversion=2007102315

But, let's not forget, CFC was a profitable company before it went crazy with the subprime lending and can be again, once it gets itself under control. It fired 500 people in that divison, so they know they have a problem - "crow" is probably all that is available at HQ's cafeteria.

 

[Boxholder]

I hate to admit it, but after reading that article about Countrywide I might take a chance and buy a little CFC next week if it tanks like I think it will after reporting. Very risky, but could be a home run too.