Griffin Account Talk

[whitemingo]

Boxholder,

If you are always trying to get in at the very bottom of an uptrend and out at the very top, you will be a basket case. If you get in after the start of the upswing and out near the top then you will have good gains without being stressed out over your thrift. Perfect entries and exits are tough to call.

 

[Boxholder]

Boxholder,

If you are always trying to get in at the very bottom of an uptrend and out at the very top, you will be a basket case. If you get in after the start of the upswing and out near the top then you will have good gains without being stressed out over your thrift. Perfect entries and exits are tough to call.

Very wise advice.

 

[Steadygain]

Whitemingo - It is a real pleasure to have you on the MB. You are definately one that will get my attention. That is the best quote I have heard in quite awhile - EXCELLENT JOB!

 

[Griffin]

Boxholder,

If you are always trying to get in at the very bottom of an uptrend and out at the very top, you will be a basket case. If you get in after the start of the upswing and out near the top then you will have good gains without being stressed out over your thrift. Perfect entries and exits are tough to call.

That can be tough to do with our deadlines - it's very easy to end up chasing the market with TSP.

Anyway, I'm not really feeling it one way or the other today, so I am going to stick with the indicators and they are starting to look bullish.

CFC is down another 3% as I am writing this - that whole company may be as toxic as some of their mortgages, but I am going to stay in the market through tomorrow they are actually the big one of very few companies that have negative estimated EPS reporting tomorrow.

I hate to sound cavalier, but to-hell-with-CFC , I'm sick of their crap!

 

[fedgolfer]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm

fed funds history suggests a 50 basis pt cut is coming. After coming off of consecutive hikes then stabilizing... once the fed has cut, they have followed that cut up with an equal sized cut. So while I'll be moving all in pre-Fed meeting... I wonder why we haven't seen institutional accumulation? Maybe they're waiting for the actual action (.25 vs .50), and then act accordingly since we're under Ben's helm. Thoughts?

 

[FogSailing]

You observation seems spot on..Unfortunately, I'm not a fan of another rate cut right now with the dollar so low and with China owning 1 trillion in US debt...but Uncle ben will probably do just that next week..

What a mess...

FS

 

[Steadygain]

I wholeheartedly concur FogSailing - and Uncle Ben feels the same; but he's under a lot of pressure and in years to come I think we'll all find that he felt the cut would do more harm and good.

 

[Griffin]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm

fed funds history suggests a 50 basis pt cut is coming. After coming off of consecutive hikes then stabilizing... once the fed has cut, they have followed that cut up with an equal sized cut. So while I'll be moving all in pre-Fed meeting... I wonder why we haven't seen institutional accumulation? Maybe they're waiting for the actual action (.25 vs .50), and then act accordingly since we're under Ben's helm. Thoughts?

Here's my thoughts on the FOMC

the day after - 1 Nov we get PCE and personal income
the day of - 31 OCT we get the Q3 GDP that morning

That makes for two very active days:

the day before will likely be a holding pattern

Monday will be a follow up to today and today is in the hands of Countrywide.

So, what happens today, is likely going to effect what the Fed does next week.

CFC represents the subprime problem and the success/failure of this administrations domestic economic policies are pretty much chained to it for better or worse. With dollar, gold and oil where they are, the Fed is going want to do as little as possible. If the Fed could get it their way, CFC gives a "not so bad" report and the Fed doesn't cut at all.

That's my swag.

PS - here's a take on Countrywide - let's see how the market takes it - they say theyll be profitable by next quarter but the EPS was neg $2.85

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/1310AP_Earns_Countrywide_Financial.html

 

[350zCommTech]

PS - here's a take on Countrywide - let's see how the market takes it - they say theyll be profitable by next quarter but the EPS was neg $2.85

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/1310AP_Earns_Countrywide_Financial.html

So far, they love it. After the rumored fed cut on Wednesday and yesterday's CNBC's denial of AIG's loss, both saving the markets, I am not surprised.

CFC reported a much bigger loss but expects to return to profitability in the next few months? LOL!!! I smell Enron.

 

[fedgolfer]

Thanks Grif, I hear ya! I know a lot of people are short varioius financials (C, CFC, LEH, etc). If we see accumulation in any of these areas that's obviously bullish -- on or before FOMC. Many think the Citigroups and BACs didn't writedown all their misques in Q3 and there is more to come as more will default. For that fact alone, I think there may be some behind the scenes pressure for another cut. CFC by itself can't influence the Fed as much as the Merrils, Morgans and Lehmans. The Street has the expecations of a succession of cuts after being conditioned by Greenspan, if we don't get a 50 or 25 then all the stocks associated to the housing bust will tank. Tech has turned into the flight to quality.

 

[Bullitt]

Tech has turned into the flight to quality.

How long will that last?

 

[fedgolfer]

How long will that last?

Ha, true. Probably until MSFT fills the gap open this AM

But seriously, for some select tech companies, they're growth is not closely hinged to the strength of the American consumer. RIMM is corporate and global, MSFT too; AMZN and even AAPL are more in bed w/ the american consumer.

 

[Griffin]

So far, they love it. After the rumored fed cut on Wednesday and yesterday's CNBC's denial of AIG's loss, both saving the markets, I am not surprised.

CFC reported a much bigger loss but expects to return to profitability in the next few months? LOL!!! I smell Enron.

In a post, I was comparing CFC to Enron, but I think i decided to cut that out because I really can't substantiate it and to date, I don't think CFC has broken the law. CFC is under so much scrutiny, they have to know that they are a "fart in church" away from a full blown investigation. I just don't think were going to see that kind of unscruplous behavior. There's been to much firings for that kind of dirty laundry to remain secret. I've mulled this over too.

Anyway, CNN says there up 18% immediately following the release. Will that be the catalyst we need for a big day? It's looking good so far, I think a lot of people are on the wrong side of the momentum, given the AAII bulls/bears. and did anybody expect Microsoft to blow it out of the water? After finally backing down on the monopoly restrictions in Europe last week, I thought they may be in the wanning years of their glory days.

 

[Bullitt]

There were some major block trade upticks yesterday on CFC during market hours. Some Hedge Fund just made a killing today.

 

[fedgolfer]

There were some major block trade upticks yesterday on CFC during market hours. Some Hedge Fund just made a killing today.

yup, talk about a huge fast play... XLF is already closing their gap open... zippo volume. The big boys either know something or they are waiting for Fed confirmation... XLF is not out of the woods yet by any means. All that stuff they wrote down on q3 will continue to some degree into Q4 and next year unless the Fed acts with more cuts. Too much pressure from Wall Street for him not too cut.

 

[Bullitt]

Whether they be up or down, I hate gaps.

 

[hessian]

Figures. Its always the LAST thing we'd expect on a day most of us are DCAing-in. The financials leading us higher after lunch?? - especially due to, of all things, an Enron conference call? Oh, excuse me, I meant CFC.
Now wondering, what's next?

 

[fedgolfer]

the big volume buy orders have been pretty impressive in XLF over the past hour... is this big money hedge managers making a play pre FOMC?! could be.

 

[Griffin]

the big volume buy orders have been pretty impressive in XLF over the past hour... is this big money hedge managers making a play pre FOMC?! could be.

If we can close above 1530, that should send many bears back into their caves and an excellent lead up to the FOMC - If the FOMC was Monday would you be real concerned if they cut or not? Marketwatch is giving the Fed only 39% chance of a rate cut (25 basis points).

A little optimism injection may be all that we need. As things currently stand, I would be relatively confident we would see a positive reaction to the Fed regardless of what they do (although I'm betting they do nothing).

The big boys could be thinking the same thing.

 

[kaitlinsnana]

Griffin, the math talk was so far over my head on Ebbs site, I couldn't even breathe. As I was running for my life I told them:

Holy ****, Batman. I gotta tell you, after logarithms, I pretty much faked, charmed and cheated my way through the required math classes. I just told Griffin, I don't understand all the moose breath, candlestick, thundercloud and teacup formations. I just follow Ebb, except for an occasional Monday or Friday when I satisfy my gambling urge in the market instead of buying Mega Million tickets. :blink:

Gail