Griffin Account Talk

[Spaf]

Yesterday the Bollinger bands for [$SPX] were in the range of 1410 to 1500.

 

[ATCJeff]

We'll be at 1430 by the end of the day - ain't no point in bailin now. I have to believe 1430 will hold.

Pretty darn close.....

 

[Griffin]

Yesterday the Bollinger bands for [$SPX] were in the range of 1410 to 1500.

Shush......do not speak such evil

Today would have been a great day to be buying in. But I'm not foolin anyone, if I hadn't bought in on Friday, I'd a bought in yesterday :nuts:. This is garbage....without any real evidence of systemic subprime spillover the market is just churning through the motions from the technicals pushed by the overbought conditions. Which is great news, because it means all the principal driving forces of establishing a trading range are working. Now we just have to see if the new channel is going to be a bull or a bear.

 

[Griffin]

I decided to pull this little tidbit out of the closet - most of it still applies - I wrote this on the 16th (the morning of the catastrophic breakdown/bounce). However, now we do have knowledge that the 1365-1370 level of support triggered a massive buying response.

PS - I moved the chart out of the quote so it would appear in the post (but that didn't work so you'll have to click on it to see the chart)
View attachment 1904

I'm not going to multi-quote, just consider this the shot-gun response.

The chart above shows the 5 year trend (the blue channel) and the 3 year trend (the red channel - which we have now been above for a year). We have seen the resistance of the red channel turn to support, now that appears to be falling apart. Which suggests this line will be come resistance once again.

Lets say the market finds support at the blue channel (about 1365 which is also supported by the change in market behavior back in Oct-Nov 06 time frame and Feb's lows.) This represents a decent buying opportunity for a short term play.

However, it will not take long before the upper red line and the lower blue line converge. Now it's been six quarters since the yield curve inverted, we're overdue for a slowdown/recession (it typically happens within 5 quarters). yeah I know, it's different this time right? Unfortunately this is where that argument can crumble. If we truely see a change in fundamentals, then we slip back into the red channel and from there the Fed will steer this ship. If we are headed for an economic slowdown, there is nothing the Fed can do, responsibly - because inflation fighting is still more important. The global economics has to deal with the BB generation retirement above anything else (because the BB generation is a global phenomenon - never forget that when assessing the magnitude of what's coming as a result).

The big question now is how far is this subprime mess going to spill over into the market. IMHO, I think you can conclude that every piece of news that suggests subprime spill over is happening directly correlates to slowdown/recession and now the market is going to price that in. I would like to believe that a slowdown/recession is not coming but the market has come to the collective conclusion to start considering it a serious potential reality. That is what I think this is all about now and that's what were seeing out of Wal-mart and some of the other big retailers....the vote is not cast yet, but yesterday it went out for vote. Now we have to wait and see.

This is why my perspective has changed so rapidly in the past 36 hours - I think we hit a tipping point which I whole heartedly believed was a good buying opportunity, I was wrong and I paid dearly. However, I am going to go into the 1365 buy with a much more cautious short term approach - if I can pick up 1-2% on the dead cat bounce, I'll be happy and skeedadle.

 

[Griffin]

View attachment 2019

Looking at the ten-day intraday and what you don't see but will probably recall from the weeks prior, is that 1430 has been our critcal breakdown line but 1440 has been the stepping stone to getting us into a feeling of positive sentiment. I'm sure a lot of people got freaked out yesterday and are busy this morning wringing their hands.

Give it a few hours for the fog to burn off, and we should see something resembling confirmed support. Folks have to get their confidence that we are not going to slip below 1430 again. That may take a day or two, but if we keep above 1440, we could see the money making machine fire up this afternoon. If your trying to decide if you want to call this a bottom, watch the intraday action as it vasilates around these critical areas.

Happy investing folks. Still 100% S

Yesterday I bought a stoogie which I intend to light up when the S&P gets to 1530 - I'd like to think that will be sometime in the next two weeks.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Griffin,

Instead of the stogie, buy 1 S&P futures contract, for $18.50 comission. At $250/point that'd gain ya $21,250.

 

[Griffin]

Griffin,

Instead of the stogie, buy 1 S&P futures contract, for $18.50 comission. At $250/point that'd gain ya $21,250.

I've never bought futures, how does that work?

 

[Wolverine]

Griffin,

Instead of the stogie, buy 1 S&P futures contract, for $18.50 comission. At $250/point that'd gain ya $21,250.

I think the current Margin/Maint on 1 Contract for the S&P Futures is $17,500/$14,000 or there about isn't it?

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I think the current Margin/Maint on 1 Contract for the S&P Futures is $17,500/$14,000 or there about isn't it?

true...to hold it you would have to have that in your account

 

[Griffin]

Bernake could reasonable say that the financial distress is contained, inflation is moderating and the economy is strong, and he would not be lying. The data is good but the problem lies with wall street....and lies is the appropriate term.

Wall street want's profit and they know that nothing is going to rack up the profits like a Fed cut. They are going to continue to throw the wrench's into the system until Ben gives them what they want. But we are still in a Bull market, so until something changes to suggest otherwise, it is reasonable to conclude that somewhere in the not to distant future, we will see new highs. This year seasonality has been a good indicator, so September may throw us some headaches. I may even try to play them, but mostly I am going to rise with the tide.

 

[Griffin]

View attachment 2044

It looks like we are breaking above the 50 day EMA. If we can slip above the SMA then it's onward and upward .

 

[fedgolfer]

It looks like we are breaking above the 50 day EMA. If we can slip above the SMA then it's onward and upward .

Hope you're right. Murphy's Law and the IFT hex, suggest we close exactly on the 50 dma

 

[Griffin]

Hope you're right. Murphy's Law and the IFT hex, suggest we close exactly on the 50 dma

We closed slightly below the 50 day EMA. But the indicators are screaming "Rally" .

I noticed that a 50S/50I split B&H strategy (which is one of my major benchmarks) is now about 6.75%. Almost a third of the board is beating that.

I do think we may have a little more huckle buck left in this system and I may follow Ebb's lead to try and pick up some of that - but for the most part, I'm sticking to Pointman72's strategy from last year of just holding all the way out with the occassional S/I flop.

 

[Griffin]

We closed slightly below the 50 day EMA. But the indicators are screaming "Rally" .

I noticed that a 50S/50I split B&H strategy (which is one of my major benchmarks) is now about 6.75%. Almost a third of the board is beating that.

I do think we may have a little more huckle buck left in this system and I may follow Ebb's lead to try and pick up some of that - but for the most part, I'm sticking to Pointman72's strategy from last year of just holding all the way out with the occassional S/I flop.

I know Ebb pulled the contrarian play and has now went to the F. I am really inclined to follow Ebb since he has been absolutely kickin' tail again this year. The reason I don't follow others as a general rule of thumb is that I consider this to be my "training years"

The indicators are still indicitive of a rally and a top does not appear to be forming yet. I believe there might be momentum enough to carry us above 1500 on the S&P, but that will be very dicey. 1500 is one of the critical levels were I would likely try and time a consolidation. To go straight to 1530 without any consolidation seems unlikely. September is historically the weakest month and that will have a psyhcological effect that will work against a buy and hold strategy.

 

[Griffin]

View attachment 2054

The DWCP appears to breaking above a key "support turned resistance" level. If this is confirmed over the next few trading hours, we could be looking at an explosive rally in the S-fund.

 

[Griffin]

In a outstanding show of strength, the S&P 500 rallied to 1496 before turning sharply south at the end of the day. Obviously, there are lots of folks out there who are thinking some profit taking is warranted at the 1500 mark. Today's lack luster economic reports will fuel that action. Becky will be grilling some series of CEO's in the morning about slowing manufacturing. This line of questioning will be welcomed as the business community uses the opportunity to couple the profit taking with economic slowdown/recession fears in hopes of driving the Fed to a rate cut.

I did not expect this strong of a day and I figured tomorrow would be the day to IFT using Thursday as a day for Capital Protection. As has been the case through out this pullback, It appears that I'm a day late. However, it still may be worth it to make a one day play. As things currently stand I will probably follow through with that plan.

 

[Griffin]

I know Ebb pulled the contrarian play and has now went to the F. I am really inclined to follow Ebb since he has been absolutely kickin' tail again this year. The reason I don't follow others as a general rule of thumb is that I consider this to be my "training years"

Apparantly, I need to include following the leaders in my training program

In a outstanding show of strength, the S&P 500 rallied to 1496 before turning sharply south at the end of the day. Obviously, there are lots of folks out there who are thinking some profit taking is warranted at the 1500 mark. Today's lack luster economic reports will fuel that action. Becky will be grilling some series of CEO's in the morning about slowing manufacturing. This line of questioning will be welcomed as the business community uses the opportunity to couple the profit taking with economic slowdown/recession fears in hopes of driving the Fed to a rate cut.

I did not expect this strong of a day and I figured tomorrow would be the day to IFT using Thursday as a day for Capital Protection. As has been the case through out this pullback, It appears that I'm a day late. However, it still may be worth it to make a one day play. As things currently stand I will probably follow through with that plan.

I went to the G fund. Ebb is in the F of course which should turn a very nice profit today - I found that the F does tend to give back a few pennies the day after any big rally in bonds, so I am going to chase pennies.

I still see this as a one day move, since my only real goal is it slip slighty further ahead of the stock funds. We are still in a bull market although those housing numbers were a bit of an eye opener.

 

[ATCJeff]

I moved from the F to the G also. Looks like that may have been a great move!

 

[nnuut]

I think your right, the "F" seems to fluctuate from day to day, I thought about the same move, but I've seen times when it did better than the others for extended periods. Look at mid 2006 to 2007! There were much better times for the "F" JUst don't have time to look! We are in hard times right now!!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55192775979

 

[Griffin]

View attachment 2078

The indicators (RSI, MACD and Full Sto) have a negative look to them for the immediate future (since thay have turned down) and this would normally be the point were you would expect some significant movement to the downside. On the other hand, it is reasonable to expect that we will see the indicators turn around very quickly with out moving much because we are still in the middle of this pullback. Also, were sitting on the 200 DMA. If that collapses we will see significant downside action, but is there a good reason for the 200 dma to get broken? So the big question is, was todays jobs report an indicator of an oncoming recession? The market really has no reason to go signficiantly below the 200 DMA unless the situation is dire. Given all that went on last month, I can see why the jobs report was bad, but thats not to say that next month it won't bounce back as a result of temporary hiring freeze's being lifted. I think the market will figure that out, and recognize this report was an aberation of the subprime panic, but not necessarily an indicator of a recession.

In all I see today as a buying opportuntiy and I am moving back in to the S-fund.

We are seeing a pennant forming, I still think the economy is strong and we will break out of that pennant to the upside in a few days.