Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

Griffin, did you mean that the market could easily turn around on Friday if the housing numbers come in bad again?

Thursday: Weekly Initial Claims
Friday: Durable Orders; New Home Sales

Yeah, I worked all weekend again.....when the number of days "ON" gets into double digits (or the teens in this case) I start to loose track of days.... you probably have noticed this issue...thanks for keeping me straight.

 

[Griffin]

Did the end-of-day rally break the USMs out of the channels, or are we still trading within the channels?
I know that the S&P 500 finally closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since August 9.
Thanks.

We closed at the top of the channel - today's futures look to push it higher. However, I will note that the intraday on the Eurozone have been slipping all day since it's initial opening, so the pop we get out of the futures this morning make be very short lived.

This situation with the Fed and the big intraday drop has gotten me off my game plan, which was to pull a Pointman72 and stay in a B&H. I am not giving up on that plan, but I am looking for a decent entry point, which will be the next show of weakness regardless if it turns out to be a true buying opportunity or not.

View attachment 1975

 

[Griffin]

The guys on CNBC were saying this morning that the Fed has capitulated and that they are going to cut no matter what. There is a lot of sentiment out there that disagrees.

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/fed_watch/index.html

Cramer on the Fed (I still like you Jim )

http://www.thestreet.com/s/thestreetcom-tv-recap-viewing-stocks-through-a-fed-prism/funds/realmoneyradiowrap/10375801.html?puc=_tscrss&

Cramer has a great point, the fundamentals have not changed - only now we have a wave of Fed "feel good buying"

I believe I smell the roots of my buying opportunity being cooked up in these view points - they will get their day in court.

 

[Griffin]

View attachment 1989
The technicals could not look any better for buying, then tack on the durable goods and housing data and it seems almost inconcievable that market is not rocketing up. Instead it is still trapped in that short term downward channel.

The talk on CNBC is all about Recession, but it really is a mixed bag.

I got to believe that no one wants to hold positions over the weekend and that is all that is holding the market back. I think were seeing all the weakness were going to get. I'm going to go ahead and move back in.

 

[Griffin]

It's the wee hours of Monday and so far asia is looking like it had a tremendous open only to watch the enthusiasim fizzle. The pre-market is in the red.

I've come to realize, I have never played a major pullback well - which is not news, in fact I said in a previous post that the best thing I could possible do, was to just wait for the dust to settle then buy back in. That was weeks ago. The saving point in my opinion, was that I was in the G-fund on the day the total breakdown occurred although that did not work in my favor, due to all the emergency repairs that kicked in.

I mention all this, because, ultimately as timers, the delay that we deal with, means that we have to take our lessons learned from the perspective of probablity not finesse. A lucky finesse is not necessarily a lesson we want to build upon. And so far we are seeing a second V-bottom in a row, which is rare and peculiar, in and of itself, let alone two in a row.

The key to a good play tomorrow has very little to do with what happened yesterday (outisde of the averages and technicals). I am trying to get myself synchorized with the market. It's hard to do in this environment, if you feel you got this market pegged, I'd like to hear from you.

 

[350zCommTech]

The key to a good play tomorrow has very little to do with what happened yesterday (outisde of the averages and technicals). I am trying to get myself synchorized with the market. It's hard to do in this environment, if you feel you got this market pegged, I'd like to hear from you.

I certainly don't have this market pegged. And like you, I was wrong about last week and missed all the gains and also got screwed by Barclay. When I saw your move on Friday, I wanted to ask if you were capitulating, but the charts looked good and others were either in or jumping back in, so I didn't ask. As for me, I'm going to wait for a retest of 1370ish or a big jump in the VIX.

GL tomorrow.

 

[Griffin]

I certainly don't have this market pegged. And like you, I was wrong about last week and missed all the gains and also got screwed by Barclay. When I saw your move on Friday, I wanted to ask if you were capitulating, but the charts looked good and others were either in or jumping back in, so I didn't ask. As for me, I'm going to wait for a retest of 1370ish or a big jump in the VIX.

GL tomorrow.

I did the same thing back in February Here's a ten day/15 minute of the S&P. Good buying opportunity?

I'm staying in.

View attachment 2008

 

[fabijo]

Love the charts, Griffin. Keep it up!

 

[350zCommTech]

I did the same thing back in February Here's a ten day/15 minute of the S&P. Good buying opportunity?

I'm staying in.

Here's what I'm looking at. It's coming off the 50 EMA.

View attachment 2009

 

[Griffin]

The talking head's are on a quest to find the next shoe to drop - commercial real estate, etc..

I see the 200 DMA acting as support, should we drift lower.

To be blunt - I think we are out of the woods (or real darn close) - at least, I think the probability is in favor of the upward trend.

 

[fedgolfer]

Chances of a reverse head and shoulders in the S&P and DWCP?

 

[FogSailing]

I still use this economic forecast prediction from Princeton made back in 1997, when I got my MBA...

I find it fascinating that it seems to have modeled our economic cycle so well, albeit in a summary fashion.

What bothers me is the predictions forecast for a continued down cycle until late into 2008.

Of course, real life events can change the course of predicted events very easily...can't they...Anyways, I just feel that we're still a good ways away from being out of the woods yet.

Hope I'm wrong...I'm starting to sound like a bear....growl..

 

[Griffin]

Chances of a reverse head and shoulders in the S&P and DWCP?

A head and shoulders pattern really is more of a reversal scenario, since the bulll trend of the macro economy remains intact (and I don't see that changing) I'm not inclined to look for a reverse H&S. I do expect the 200 dma to hold up, but even if that is penetrated, I don't think we will see 1430 broken.

Consumer confidence was rattled - gee what a surprise and we will still have to contend with August's housing numbers in a few weeks. But other then that, the fundamentals are not falling apart, certainly not to the point that warrants all this recession talk.

Granted, August is not the month to be trying to fight our way out of a pullback and the next few days may be tough, but September is on it's way! We are in an unusally light volume pattern because so much of the street was not able to take a vacation earlier in the month. I expect a bounce back by Friday that sends this market screaming north in anticipation of business as usual next week. In fact this scenario seems so likely, we may see the bounce come even earlier, in anticipation of the bounce.

Here's the chart, It really is looking like a bleak scenario, which accounts for all the negativity, but we are appraoching the point where any kind of a pop, is going to break this channel to the upside.

View attachment 2017

 

[Callme_CO]

thanks for the good info

 

[fedgolfer]

Grif, i think the S&P is mimicing where the XLF has already been. the resistance line that the S&P broke above on 8/23, is where we are finding support now, coincidentally also the 200 dma and the 20 dma. If we stay above those points, its confirmation of the breakout and its BUY BUY BUY if there's any afternoon overdone fear. We have to close at or above that 200 dma though.

 

[Griffin]

Grif, i think the S&P is mimicing where the XLF has already been. the resistance line that the S&P broke above on 8/23, is where we are finding support now, coincidentally also the 200 dma and the 20 dma. If we stay above those points, its confirmation of the breakout and its BUY BUY BUY if there's any afternoon overdone fear. We have to close at or above that 200 dma though.

I thought about mentioning the resistance line we broke last week, but I did not want to confuse things to much (like that's ever stopped me before :nuts. I completely agree, we really need to stay on top of 1450, if we want to bounce tomorrow. This volatility is making this very difficult to time. I certainly do not want to go anywhere near 1430 again, this situation is to goofy to guesstimate what will happen.

On one hand, CNBC keeps parading these CEO's who are talking about slow down - but what is ridiculous is that they are using time frames of 6 months or a year. But it has me concerned because August 16th is sitting there taunting the market. On the other, the events of that day were so bizarre, I have to really question the mentality behind anything that would lend itself to a retest. How can you have 6 months of recession? that makes no sense to me.

 

[fedgolfer]

if 1449'ish doesn't hold... 1427'ish is where we'll find abundent support and guess what? Confirmation of a reverse head & shoulders

 

[FogSailing]

It just busted to 1448...

Do I hold in G, or take the plunge??????

FS

 

[Griffin]

We'll be at 1430 by the end of the day - ain't no point in bailin now. I have to believe 1430 will hold.

 

[FogSailing]

Griffin:

I took a small plunge (15 I, 15 S) for tommorrow...Ebb, 12%, and others all see the fundamentals as good just as you do...

I hope folks don't get hurt to bad today..and that tomorrow somehow sounds a positive note..

my new motto "NO REGRETS.. IT''S ALL GOOD".. Now..do I feel better?

FS