Griffin Account Talk

[ATCJeff]

Great Job Griffin. I added ya some points!

 

[Birchtree]

We may have kissed the S&P level of 1375 twice today - finally closing above that level. This may establish a pattern of bottoms above bottoms - we'll see if it can hold. I think the last correction bottomed around 1375.

 

[Griffin]

Birch, you have to be FREAKIN kidding me if you think today was anything other then Hollywood quality theatrics. Go to yahoo and take a one day look at ^TV.N (volume fo the NYSE) vs the S&P. Today was PURE buy programs (no regular Joe Sixpack investors were buying today) and the moment they backed off, the market tanked. Today's close was completely artificial which is why the OSM's are not following through. Smart people get it. Today was not about establishing bottoms, it was inadvertantly about establishing resistance. The short covering artificial buy programs that were executed today, did more damage to the technical's then if the hedges let this play out naturally. The panic that struck when the reality that this market was not going to bridge the gap between 1395 to 1411 on it's own caused reckless abandonment of all sensability. They caused all kinds of preprogrammed trades to be executed, and now that those are executed the natural support that should have occurred has been removed from play. Today was a disaster, although it is green. Support at the 1370 leveled has been wiped out virtually guaranteeing a bear market. The only question now is: how long can they keep it up? Keep in mind that the longer they execute these buy progams the more they reduce the oversold conditions opening the way for further deterioration.

I have to sarcastically believe that if you sat down at a lunch counter on wall street today the menu read: 1 line of coke and a coke or two lines of coke and a coke. Because only a coke-head could have cooked up this insanity. :nuts:

Maybe I'm wrong and they can trigger this market into a rebound, but that strikes me as a desperation ploy that makes your typical Hail Mary seem wise and calculated.

We may have kissed the S&P level of 1375 twice today - finally closing above that level. This may establish a pattern of bottoms above bottoms - we'll see if it can hold. I think the last correction bottomed around 1375.

 

[nnuut]

I'm with you on this one Griffin, has to be.

 

[atcbullet]

I thought it seemed odd tonight on fast money how they were pumping this market higher. Boiling buying financials XLF.

 

[Griffin]

I'm with you on this one Griffin, has to be.

OK so, I went to happy hour before I wrote that so please excuse the rant. In turn, spare me the sarcasm . Althoug two hours later and no more beers, I still think I'm not far from reality......

 

[JTH]

I still think I'm not far from reality......

I find it somewhat odd that stockholders are so desperate for good news, that they want to believe today was a good day? It seems that that last hour rally is providing nothing more then false hope. That false hope is waiting for some idiot like me to step back in so I can get burned again. :nuts:

I retreated 75% to safety and I'm not going to feel guilty about it!

Thanks for the great post...

 

[Griffin]

Japan has my sympathy, what a slap in the face - especially in the middle of vacation week.

http://www.reuters.com/article/tokyoMktRpt/idUST21960120070817

Japan closed at what is essentially the bottom of their five year channel - which by no small coincidence, is where we touched down before yesterdays unbelieveable short covering rally.

That puts most of the world on the bottom edge asking that question - "Recession", It's like kicking around "Divorce" with your spouse - don't say it in a fight unless you really are seriously considering going there - and apparantly - a lot of folks are doing just that.

 

[Griffin]

A CNN Money top story - here's "Recession" speak by the numbers - http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/moneymag/0708/gallery.how_youll_know.moneymag/index.html

With friends like these...who needs enemies :nuts:.

 

[smine]

Federal Reserve lowers discount window rate to 5.75% from 6.25%

Should make for an interesting day!

 

[vectorman]

Japan has my sympathy, what a slap in the face - especially in the middle of vacation week.

http://www.reuters.com/article/tokyoMktRpt/idUST21960120070817

Japan closed at what is essentially the bottom of their five year channel - which by no small coincidence, is where we touched down before yesterdays unbelieveable short covering rally.

That puts most of the world on the bottom edge asking that question - "Recession", It's like kicking around "Divorce" with your spouse - don't say it in a fight unless you really are seriously considering going there - and apparantly - a lot of folks are doing just that.

Griffin thanks for your TA comments. If your a investor in Japan, its going to be a pretty sleepless weekend, knowing that your just a step away from a mini crash ( there is alot of profit still on the table) . Also with a decreasing wedge pattern, the rest of the year will be interesting if support holds. This isn't just Japan's problem, the whole world will be watching holding their breath to see if the other shoe will drop.


View attachment 1929

 

[Griffin]

Here's a story I like much better - maybe because 10 positive points is better then 5 negative :toung:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/14/new...gion.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007081410

I think we will see a repeat of yesterday's move down in the very near future. I can get bullish if either one of two things happens, we get above 1430 and reestablish it as support, or we get a succesful retest of yesterday's low. Eitherway, I can expect to miss some gains before I buy back in, but at this stage of the game, I am still more concerned about a move below 1365 over the next few days.

That's not to say that I won't pop into the market to play this Japan thing. I expect Japan should get a nice bounce tomorrow. That depends on how the US acts today. We have to get through the first hour to see what's real and what's market manipulation. This would be a one day move, I guess I should thank the shorts for the FV correction that will keep prices down tonight.

I'll make that decision around 1130

 

[Griffin]

Griffin thanks for your TA comments. If your a investor in Japan, its going to be a pretty sleepless weekend, knowing that your just a step away from a mini crash ( there is alot of profit still on the table) . Also with a decreasing wedge pattern, the rest of the year will be interesting if support holds. This isn't just Japan's problem, the whole world will be watching holding their breath to see if the other shoe will drop.


View attachment 1929

V-man: thanks for throwing that chart up - you can definitely squeeze a little rebound in the tip of that wedge, but I am concerned about that other shoe (how many more can there be out there - it's been raining shoes lately)

 

[airlift]

Griffin,
I like your analyisis and your defensive capital-preservation position. Thanks!

 

[vectorman]

V-man: thanks for throwing that chart up - you can definitely squeeze a little rebound in the tip of that wedge, but I am concerned about that other shoe (how many more can there be out there - it's been raining shoes lately)

Fed just stepped up to the plate to try and hold on those other shoes. They blinked, so you know how worry they ( or the Whitehouse) were getting.

 

[Griffin]

Federal Reserve lowers discount window rate to 5.75% from 6.25%

Should make for an interesting day!

Apparantly yesterday's Fed rumor had some substance to it. I figured it was another BS tactic like we had a.....when was that? a week or so ago?

Anyway, I don't know if the big boys are getting under Ben's skin or maybe it's the recession speak. The recession speak does give Ben the opportunity to make some moves and without sacrificing his stance on inflation. I applaud the move, it's been done with a certain amount of plausible deniability, if the "recession symptoms" turn out to be total bull manure. Once again, yesterday's rally has opened the door of opportunity.

This is very good. The one day I-fund move is looking like a reality. But, I still want to see what happens after the first hour, this whole bottom thing that is going on here could still be a house of cards.

 

[350zCommTech]

This is very good. The one day I-fund move is looking like a reality. But, I still want to see what happens after the first hour, this whole bottom thing that is going on here could still be a house of cards.

I just called a "NO Brainer".

 

[Griffin]

I just called a "NO Brainer".

yeap, I think so....I just pulled the trigger- back in the I 100%.

 

[ATCJeff]

yeap, I think so....I just pulled the trigger- back in the I 100%.

Disagree guys. Risk vs. Reward is way to high. Asia could just as easly continue downward Monday.

 

[Griffin]

I smell an afternoon sell off coming, staying with the I-fund move though because, I see another -FV getting stacked on with today's FV correction.