Griffin Account Talk

[love-to-bike]

Since being vested in the I fund since July 23rd, it's too late to bail now. Should have cut my losses earlier, but hey, I'm a optimist (albeit poorer than I was a month ago).

 

[ATCJeff]

Is 5.5% not getting anyone's attention? My gut tells me Monday morning(Sunday night for us) Asia will continue down. They have dumb money just like us. They have all weekend to think about capitulation!

 

[vectorman]

Is 5.5% not getting anyone's attention? My gut tells me Monday morning Asia will continue down. They have dumb money just like us. They have all weekend to think about capitulation!

Black Monday :worried:

 

[350zCommTech]

I smell an afternoon sell off coming, staying with the I-fund move though because, I see another -FV getting stacked on with today's FV correction.

Griffin,

I'm having second thoughts about the "no brainer". Since the market is well off this morning's high, I can see it finishing up 300+ causing a +FV. It would not be that bad since Japan will rally hard on Sunday. But if the market closes down -300, it will be black Monday.

We need the Dow to be at 200+ before the deadline.

 

[ChemEng]

I smell an afternoon sell off coming, staying with the I-fund move though because, I see another -FV getting stacked on with today's FV correction.

This scenario scares me the most.

Good luck!

 

[Griffin]

Tough call, I like that the S&P is sitting at 1430, and even though I bailed the other day, in my gut, I do not believe that a recession is necessary or warranted and that this sub prime mess is as dramatic as folks want us to believe. In the grand scheme of things, this a couple hundred billion dollar loss to the world - thats not insignificant, but it's not Jim Cramer's Armaggedon either.

At some point there has to be a buy in point. Probably should be looking for a retest of 1370.

this is a one day deal for good or bad, I'll take what I get and smile about it - it's only money, the government will print more.

Griffin,

I'm having second thoughts about the "no brainer". Since the market is well off this morning's high, I can see it finishing up 300+ causing a +FV. It would not be that bad since Japan will rally hard on Sunday. But if the market closes down -300, it will be black Monday.

We need the Dow to be at 200+ before the deadline.

 

[FogSailing]

Griffin:

Thanks for your thoughtful and helpful dialogue. I appreciate your feel for the market, and I always make certain to read your post.....when I'm home and not on the water..

Good luck tomorrow.

FS

 

[Griffin]

This is a story about Billie Joe and Bobbie Sue......take the money and run....to the G-fund.

.....this is a one day deal for good or bad, I'll take what I get and smile about it - it's only money, the government will print more.....

 

[Show-me]

this is a one day deal for good or bad, I'll take what I get and smile about it - it's only money, the government will print more.

They don't even take the time to print it now days.

 

[Griffin]

I just read Tom's comments and the first thing that jumped out at me when looking at the series of four instances where the market dropped significantly below 200 dma charts, is the time frame. It's no suprise to any timer that this game is all about timing. :toung:

Those patterns of test and retest evolved over several weeks, so if we were to drop down to Thrusday's intraday low within the next couple of days, we would still be wrapping up the first leg of the trip down. What I'm saying is that a new low soon, doesn't represent a retest, it represents the inital push down - which certainly would fit the historical patterns, given that we did not remotely close anywhere near Thursday's intraday nightmare low.

The bobble heads on CNBC this morning where already trying to put that whiney - "The Fed has admitted that the situation is desperate" spin on the discount window rate correction. So, although I certainly don't want that fear kicking in today (I'm in the I today on a one day venture), we have to assume that at some point soon, some negative piece of news will lend credence to that viewpoint, and we move down.

The Bears are still very hungry.

 

[Griffin]

I just peeked at the S&P charts and it looks like it ended on a positive note after flirting with the 1430 line and some potential serious red around chow time.

We know a drop below 1430 is bad news, it is reasonable to assume last Thursday's downward venture triggered "emergency repairs" into action that probably would not happen again. So was today's action evidence that 1430 is still firm support?

Maybe, but it was tested with very little pressure - I mean that there really was not any seriously bad news that would have triggered a sell-off. Now come Wednesday when Toll Brothers reports - that could be ugly depending on what 3Q guidance they put out.

While the day finished up anemically in the green, it is worth mentioning, Countrywide's firing spree did not incite panic. All things considered, I would say that we are in about the exact same shape as we were last Tuesday afternoon except with a lot less fear. That fear is still out there and last Tuesday I was in the market getting hammered, now I'm out as of tonight.

I go back to what I said earlier and that is - we are still on the first leg of the trip down - unless last Thursday was the bottom. The market has yet to close below 1430 and at some point it must or else the bottom was really never established. Right? That intraday drop just begs for another move lower.

I don't know if I want to be in or out right now.

 

[atcbullet]

I just read Tom's comments and the first thing that jumped out at me when looking at the series of four instances where the market dropped significantly below 200 dma charts, is the time frame. It's no suprise to any timer that this game is all about timing. :toung:

Those patterns of test and retest evolved over several weeks, so if we were to drop down to Thrusday's intraday low within the next couple of days, we would still be wrapping up the first leg of the trip down. What I'm saying is that a new low soon, doesn't represent a retest, it represents the inital push down - which certainly would fit the historical patterns, given that we did not remotely close anywhere near Thursday's intraday nightmare low.

The bobble heads on CNBC this morning where already trying to put that whiney - "The Fed has admitted that the situation is desperate" spin on the discount window rate correction. So, although I certainly don't want that fear kicking in today (I'm in the I today on a one day venture), we have to assume that at some point soon, some negative piece of news will lend credence to that viewpoint, and we move down.

The Bears are still very hungry.

Capital One could make for a tuff day.

 

[Griffin]

Capital One could make for a tuff day.

Another good reason to be out.

I don't know if I want to be in or out right now.

And the Aye's (....got to be out have it!) - Tom's comments and chart this morning sealed the deal for me, I'm out until I see a reason to get back in.

Note 1430 on the S&P does not have equivalent set numbers in the EZ, the equivalent support line on those indexes hava a downward slope so their situation is deteriorating.

the past couple of weeks have at least served to remind me why I don't like the I-fund .

 

[Griffin]

So now we are seeing the 200 dma act as resistance. Given the little bit of flexibility in the chart Tom posted this morning, I am now thoroughly convinced that the next big move will be to the downside. Interestingly enough, if I was just looking at the full stochastic, MACD and RSI, I would see the current situation from a bullish perspective. A couple of days ago, I said I would see stability above 1430 as an indicator to get bullish. Am I waffling on that position?..yeap.

However, playing the indicators is probably not justified given the high volatility and the enormous amount of uncertainty. If we do see a strong move down, I will be looking to buy in at 1370. Markets seem to be handling the punches for now.

View attachment 1946

 

[FogSailing]

Griffin:

I agre with you that the stochastic looks bullish, but in my mind the market is still out of synch with the long term MA..I'm still holding tight..

Thanks for your thoughts..

FS

 

[atcbullet]

Griffin, The XLF should be a good indicator of where we are headed. Is this a classic double or do you think there will be a retracement of the bottom. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=XLF&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m200&a=&c=

 

[fedgolfer]

the financials/XLF got us into this mess, XLF showed the double bottom, then broke the upper trendline of resistance on the day the Fed announced the discount rate cut; then broke out and found support on what was once resistance. Because of this i'm leaning to thinking the S&P will follow suit... maybe the XLF is already pricing in the fed funds rate cut. At this present time, the S&P is hitting and stalled at that upper resistance point, but has no fed news to spring it above the line. Can technicals alone provide a breakout based on the fact that the financials already did and found support?

The prudent play may be to move a little more in on TSP, while fully invested in quicker accounts and get ready to react either way in those accounts.

 

[Griffin]

When I get out of step with the market, I end up chasing it. In the past, I have found that the only way to break that cycle is to step to the sideline and wait for a good buying opportunity. That's where I am now and my confidence level is not very high. I still think the next major move is to the downside.

However, the concern is still subprime spill-over into the general market and now we are hearing that a fed rate cut is being priced into the market. With the FOMC meeting still a month out and an emergency meeting talk still vibrant, that pricing may flow in and out the market with the tide. The influence over that tide is now with the fundamentals.

The financials have take a massive pummelling over the past couple of months and it is reasonable to believe that they have paid their dues, evidenced by the double bottom. Over the past couple of weeks we have seen the financials carry the market through some rough days, because they are a bargain. I don't think you will see the XLF drop below the recent retested low, but the current trend of the S&P is still to the downside and we have yet to see that trend broken.

The market reacted favorably to Toll Brothers and WCI today, but that could easily turn around tomorrow if the housing numbers come in bad again. I believe the big shocker's are mostly exposed, and the fundamentals will determine where we go from here. I'm looking for a buying opportunity to get back into the game.

 

[vectorman]

The one good thing going for the US markets tomorrow is no big news day, only headliner IMO is jobless claims. Japan decides on interest rate tonight ( our time)..

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

 

[fedgolfer]

Way to play it Grif. Just playing the odds, if USM's don't break out of the channels by 4pm today, they may gap to the downside unless there's overnight news to spark a breakout. Not sure what individual stock names can get a rally going tomorrow. BHP which helped propel the EZ to the upside today has been trading below the 5-day support line for the past 20 minutes or so... hasn't fallen hard though, just consolidating but could fall out.