FundSurfer account talk

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I hope you had the prescient opportunity to accumulate some of those undervalued shares - buy and holders have done well off the March lows.
 
I'll attach my current graphs I'm looking at. It looks to me like we are near a point where we should step aside for a few days. I'm thinking like I used to when we could move whenever we wanted. Hmmm ....
View attachment 6425
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View attachment 6427

I think I'll sit tight for a while. I'd probably jump to the sideline if we skyrocket before noon, but that isn't likely on a Friday. More likely we'll have a little Friday sell off. I thought about that yesterday, but it is too tricky to try and call that little stuff with our limited moves.
 
Yes, excel. I grab the daily fund prices off the TSP.gov website and create the graphs. The fund prices are a little different than the indexes they track. I can also do my own scales and manipulation of the data in a manner I prefer.
 
FundSurfer said:
I think I'll sit tight for a while. I'd probably jump to the sideline if we skyrocket before noon, but that isn't likely on a Friday. More likely we'll have a little Friday sell off. I thought about that yesterday, but it is too tricky to try and call that little stuff with our limited moves.
Click to expand...

Yeah, looks like folks are not wanting to be in the market given that Iran election is unsettling. Could see a bounce especially if the reformist gets elected.
 
Pull back goes to the bottom of the channel. Tough call, could bounce, might not. This is bad time of year.

Staying put for another day.
 
I bailed out to G. We have gone through the bottom of the channels I showed on the graphs I posted. Looking at support, there is a potiential 2-3% drop to next support level. I hope we don't get there today.

I've settled on a potiential nibble approach to trading. One nibble per month. Does OK in my back testing although I'd like to get more data for the current trading environment to feel more comfortable. This particular trade is boarderline. June is half over so I've got some incentive to try before July. It won't take much drop and I'll nibble buy back in.
 
We are at about 1% drop from where I said I expected it to drop 2-3%. James' chart which was similar was looking at 4%. Part of me wants to jump in and take the 1 percent as a nibble. It is hard to say if this is the best chance or not. I'm leaning against getting back in right now because: 1. Time of year - May go away and it ain't October yet; 2. Iran and N. Korea situations are both volitile and I think both situations will get worse before they get better; 3. Our limited number of trades... I really want to be in the market at the beginning of the month to maximize my nibble plan. If I get in the market now and end up having to dive for cover of G, that sets me up poorly for July. It will happen, but for now I'll lean toward slower trading to reduce the chance of occurance.
 
FundSurfer said:
I really want to be in the market at the beginning of the month to maximize my nibble plan.
Click to expand...

I hear ya, but that's a very difficult thing to do now that we've probably begun an IT downtrend. I'm looking to take my shots when they come. Probably jumping in today. A bird in the hand...
 
Reached target in S and real close in the I fund. C-fund has not dropped as much. Could this mean folks are holding on to quality for now? That's a pretty good sign to me that this drop will not go too far.

Looks like fairly big down day right now in S and I.

I think I'll book this nibble and get back in the market. It might be a little early and another day might be even better, but I'll take what the market has given me so far.
 
Thinking about jumping to G to avoid a Friday sell scenario. There is a good chance folks will bail because they don't want to be in the market over the weekend given all of the uncertainty - Iran, N. Korea, etc. The problem is that I'm out of trades and could go to G but would be out till July. There is also a chance of end of month window dressing. Again next week people may want to avoid the holiday weekend. There are a lot of variables and our limited trading definitely hurts. Oh well, it is what it is.

I'm thinking I'll stay put and wait for a good setup in July.
 
Made a last minute move to the g fund. I looked at the charts and there is a chance we have shifted to a downward trend. If this has happened, then the new channel will be near the top. I figured that I can get back into the market in a couple days if needed with the new month. So I'm taking avantage of the monthly turn around. I'd rather move into a new month with everything in the market but I'd rather be safe than sorry right now.

I also left 1% in C,s,i to just test the less than 1% move capability.
 
Looking at the charts, I think there is support at 865 for S&P. That would also fall into place with a new downward channel being formed. Similarly the S&I would follow down 5% from yesterday close.

We are at an inflextion point with a new channel being formed either down or up slightly. Since I'm on the sidelines I'll stay there for now. James chart school predicted a double top breakout. That post surprised me so I'll watch closely. If the market goes down a couple more percent I'll get back in and stay till next month and call that a successful nibble. If I had more time I'd post my charts. Maybe I'll get a chance this weekend.
 
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