FundSurfer account talk

[FundSurfer]

I have moved back into the market. I'm heavier in S&I than C just because they have been moving more lately. I may be a little early moving back in, especially since the S&P head and shoulders pattern could set off a quick drop, but I'd rather take my successful nibble rather than risk too much.

My strategy is to look at the short term market cycles and try to time a cycle once a month. With a limited number of trades that we have available, this plan seems like it will work for me. My plan is to try and stay ahead of the indexes but not necessarily knock the ball out of the park. This is the main reason I'm getting back into the market even though we could move down big - we could also move up again. I've avoided about a 3% drop and that is a good enough nibble for me to call it a very successful trade as long as the market will just keep from having a big end of day rally.

 

[FundSurfer]

I've debated getting out with myself all morning.If I had unlimited trades I'd have been gone yesterday. We don't. I've had to think about my new plan and what fits my new plan. My plan is to buy into the market when we are low in a channel and sell when we get to the top. Unfortunitely, we are not in a well defined channel right now. I think the market could go either way. My gut tells me this market is going to drop 5%. I'm expecting a sell off this afternoon. The sell off may be a significant portion of that 5%.

Right now I'm ahead of the CS&I funds. I'm in the market so if they go down I go down but I'll still be ahead. Since I have doubt about the market and there are mixed signals, I'm going to leave well enough alone.

I'll be out of town next week with limited internet access.

 

[FundSurfer]

Going to G. I'm on the road, so see my post in the i-fund thread to see why.

 

[FundSurfer]

Ouch. The trade limit cost me. At least I did not miss the whole rally.

Looking at the chart, there needs to be a breather. We have had a little one, but I'm not sure if it was enough.

 

[Birchtree]

Beep, Beep. Turtle coming through.

 

[FundSurfer]

Tough decision. Stay or sell. My charts look similar to Tom's with us looking like we are at the bottom of a new channel. The problem is that we could also be a a bigger inflection point. I've decided to stay put until things look clearer.

 

[Bullitt]

This market could have one more thrust higher. I still think there's this tremendous fear of being caught in the waterfall again like 2008 and investors are quick to buy those 2x short funds. ISEE came in at 67 two days ago and usually that's a sign of a squeeze in the next 3-4 trading days. Last time we saw that low of a reading was on 12/29/09 when it came in at 67, and the market rallied 30 points after the one day sell-off shortly after.

 

[FundSurfer]

Still lurking. I find that I don't have as much time as I'd like to spend on this message board. Stuck in travel by the weather so I've got some time today. I've stopped posting to the auto-tracker since I subscribed and follow a service. I'm glad to see that the tracker has taken off and continues to be popular. The online tool is so much better than the old days with the spreadsheets.

Wish everyone well and strong gains...

 

[BigJohn]

FS, nice to hear from you. In my early days on TSPTALK I followed your moves and your postings religiously...made for some good earnings.

Thank you again for your input.

BigJohn

 

[nnuut]

Nice to hear from you FS, stop by more often we miss your input.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Howdy FS, good to see you! See you next year?

 

[Afishegg]

Still lurking. I find that I don't have as much time as I'd like to spend on this message board. Stuck in travel by the weather so I've got some time today. I've stopped posting to the auto-tracker since I subscribed and follow a service. I'm glad to see that the tracker has taken off and continues to be popular. The online tool is so much better than the old days with the spreadsheets.

Wish everyone well and strong gains...

Hey just pick a fund a leave it! Last year the S fund returned %29 (sure beats PAYING someone who might or might not know what the hell they are doing based on some kinda amature system they follow), bah bah bah I gaurantee you this year will be the same, just stick it in and leave it and you will fare better than those who jump in and out and STILL end up on the bottom...SUNK! bah bah bah bah bah.......Oh by the way I'm starting a pay for system to dole out so-so information, just give me all your money and I'll e-mail you some so-so information to trade on..hehehehehe
(kidding)

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Hey just pick a fund a leave it! Last year the S fund returned %29 (sure beats PAYING someone who might or might not know what the hell they are doing based on some kinda amature system they follow), bah bah bah I gaurantee you this year will be the same, just stick it in and leave it and you will fare better than those who jump in and out and STILL end up on the bottom...SUNK! bah bah bah bah bah.......Oh by the way I'm starting a pay for system to dole out so-so information, just give me all your money and I'll e-mail you some so-so information to trade on..hehehehehe
(kidding)

No need to get like that. I don't think any here is twisting your arm to join their service. I'm sure if FS is following one, he thinks it's a good one. I would trust his investment opinion because he's shown a great deal of knowledge in the past.

BTW, a good trading system does not a good commentary make.............

 

[akpackfan]

Hey just pick a fund a leave it! Last year the S fund returned %29 (sure beats PAYING someone who might or might not know what the hell they are doing based on some kinda amature system they follow), bah bah bah I gaurantee you this year will be the same, just stick it in and leave it and you will fare better than those who jump in and out and STILL end up on the bottom...SUNK! bah bah bah bah bah.......Oh by the way I'm starting a pay for system to dole out so-so information, just give me all your money and I'll e-mail you some so-so information to trade on..hehehehehe
(kidding)

Dude, if your a buy and holder, what's the point of reading posts on this board? Obviously nothing said here will benefit you since you don't believe any of it. If you're a true buy and holder, even the most educated commentary from the smartest people on this board won't sway you from your method. The reason 98% of the people are on this board is because they are looking for something better than buy and hold. I'm looking for something that will keep me out of the major drops. Let's see at the end of the year how things turn out and judge it from that. Only fair.

 

[grandma]

Hey just pick a fund a leave it! Last year the S fund returned %29 (sure beats PAYING someone who might or might not know what the hell they are doing based on some kinda amature system they follow), bah bah bah I gaurantee you this year will be the same, just stick it in and leave it and you will fare better than those who jump in and out and STILL end up on the bottom...SUNK! bah bah bah bah bah.......Oh by the way I'm starting a pay for system to dole out so-so information, just give me all your money and I'll e-mail you some so-so information to trade on..hehehehehe
(kidding)

Surely you posted this in jest? If not, you might want to verify your level of knowledge is sufficiently beyond the poster you are addressing before you go off half-cocked. FS is well known to many of us - and we are tickled to see him drop in for `hello's'; and - Bullitt also, in case you have a need to go there, too.

 

[Afishegg]

Well apparently I stuck my foot in my mouth on here with this comment. I want to first apologize to anyone who was offended at my off hand comment, I meant NO harm with it. I was just trying to make a point and I did so in an ill manner. I was just saying that last year if you had left your money in the S fund....well you know. I make moves on a regular basis as well, but I do sense a tinge of "lashing out" in my comment (after re-reading it) and I'll try and explain.

(1st and foremost, i prolly had a coupla beers :embarrest: when i typed that comment....oops) just say no to ...drinking and messaging.....:toung:
(2nd My post was NOT directed @ FS nor anyone else, I was just speaking out at no-one)

However... I enjoy this site and the info i recieve here because it...is...FREE..

When I see people start to privatize/commercialize/MONITIZE it (in other words, they get $$$ signs in their eyes) I get a little worked up. We live in a world that has become UBER greedy! and I HATE THAT! HOA's,parking fees,insurance fees,fine print traps,taxes for this and for that....EVERYONE wants a "piece" and I guess when I see these "pay for services" on this site by some it kinda struck a nerve with me, I understand these folks provide a service but it goes against what I thought this site was all about..."free advice"....Please understand I am not bitter and I am sorry for and if I offended anyone.. peace and please keep up the good work guys,... thanx
Peace -fish-

SO!!!!!......... how bout that superbowl!?!?!!?!? hehehehehe I live in dallas and we are all joking about how jerry Must be P'OD, he is worried about breaking the attendance record and this Ice is putting a crimp in his plans hahahhahaha poor jerry...

 

[Birchtree]

There is still plenty of free jabber wocky advise around the town. Don't worry about other people's money - they'll decide soon enough to stay or fade. I've never been a member of a service although I did subscribe to The Wall Street Transcript one year before nearly drowning in data. This investment arena is wide open and can be somewhat intimidating until you know your way around - they take no prisoners. The MB is a good start to ease into the pool and has all levels of expertise available - it just takes time to get acquainted.

 

[tsptalk]

However... I enjoy this site and the info i recieve here because it...is...FREE..

When I see people start to privatize/commercialize/MONITIZE it (in other words, they get $$$ signs in their eyes) I get a little worked up. We live in a world that has become UBER greedy! and I HATE THAT! HOA's,parking fees,insurance fees,fine print traps,taxes for this and for that....EVERYONE wants a "piece" and I guess when I see these "pay for services" on this site by some it kinda struck a nerve with me, I understand these folks provide a service but it goes against what I thought this site was all about..."free advice"....Please understand I am not bitter and I am sorry for and if I offended anyone.. peace and please keep up the good work guys,... thanx
Peace -fish-

I appreciate the explanation. You had us worried.

We went through this x 10 back in 2007 with Ebb and Fred, and we have actually had premium services going back to 2005.

In 2007 we had the folks who were outraged that Ebb and Fred, and TSP Talk, would have the nerve to charge for a service that "should be free", as if it is one of our rights. Kind of like healthcare, I guess.

I'm not sure how much work you do each week for no pay, but some folks, like myself and Intrepid_Timer, do this for a living and it's hard to feed my family without a few bucks coming in.

But if you are interesting in providing a free service for TSP Talk, commentary, news, info, etc., I would gladly publish it.

Over the years we have had thousands of folks subscribe to a premium service. Many try a service and quit at the first sign of adversity, but the ones who have been with us, subscribing for years, are the ones that just don't understand the market, finance, etc., and have no real interest in learning. They trust that the services they follow will help them and believe they are better off than if they tried to wing it using their own ignorance, so to each their own.

Most of us here on the message board enjoy the challenge the market provides, but as I said, most people hate this stuff and don't want to devote the time needed. But when a service come along with a system / service that sems to give us an edge, people are curious and want in.

Just my 2 cents. And you have the right to your opinion, and there a lot of folks who feel the same way you do. It's cool. We have 1000's of people reading this site every day, and 100's who pay for more. Can't we all just get along.

 

[Afishegg]

Oh yeah we CAN get along ... I know alot read the messages on here but do not comment. I know I am one of the relatively few who actually have the cojones to speak my mind on here, My attitude is I don't care, I aint skeered, I'm an east Texas redneck and I'll speak up...sometimes though it can get me in trouble.......BUT...I mean no harm.......
thanx, fer understandin.......signed....a fellow gub-mint employee.

 

[grandma]

...I guess when I see these "pay for services" on this site by some it kinda struck a nerve with me, I understand these folks provide a service but it goes against what I thought this site was all about..."free advice"....Please understand I am not bitter ....

(highlighting is mine..g)

-Hmmm - where, exactly, did you get the impression that you are getting advice, free or otherwise?? In truth, what you are getting is NOT advice - it is simply folks sharing what they know, what their charts & systems are telling them, and what they expect to do about it. And that is free. You make your own decisions. (I find it interesting that this whole conversation began when you jumped in to tell FundSurfer what he should do with his, yet you say you are here for Free Advice!) If your chosen funds take a fall & your account lessens, it is because of your free will to choose where & how much.

Bitter? what on earth is there to be bitter about on a 'talk site? ...that had to come from someplace in your spirit that must be barely hidden...
What is it to you what some of the rest of us do? Is that what drove you to rashly condemn something you were not a part of? You say you are getting your information for Free; why does it bother you that I might pay a fellow for swimming or trading or sky-diving lessons?

Oh yeah we CAN get along ... I know alot read the messages on here but do not comment.

That is true, watch the bottom of the front page; besides noting how many members are signed in, it will also note how many readers are not signed in... Who knows how many of those are members of the board, and how many are not... I would imagine alot of members don't sign in just to read, as they are pushed for time.

I know I am one of the relatively few who actually have the cojones to speak my mind on here,...

-this comment probably has the least amount of truth in it than anything so far... You are not very `read up' if you think there aren't any `face-offs' here. And, actually, cojones aren't of any value in this particular thread. Commenting intelligently requires thinking in a more traditional area.

My attitude is I don't care, I aint skeered, I'm an east Texas redneck and I'll speak up....

-ahh, truth - you don't care. That does come across as arrogance, you know. And adding that you `mean no harm,' doesn't cover that up.
To excuse bad behavior by the part of the U.S. you live in is inexcusable - especially when you consider how many of the Board are either from East Texas, or have family there. And to use your beer drinking as rationale, just means you don't feel you can be held accountable, and that `speaking up' is therefore a freebie regardless of the harm.

Tom, the Administrator, gave you the benefit of the doubts some had; and described to you the history of the Premium Services - that HAVE been here for years, & were in place BEFORE you joined us.
Your reply Could have simply been a `thank you for that unknown information.'