FundSurfer account talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
FogSailing said:
Excellent charts. Are you creating those yourself on Excel. or are you getting them from some website??
Click to expand...

I create these myself using excel. I like to play with numbers and test my own models.

If you looked at the short term bottom of channel lines I drew, we are now sitting on the bottoms of those channels. I'm staying 50S, 50I. I considered moving to S since it has had such a large 1 day decline but decided to stay split since the slope (average daily gain) of the I-fund is greater.
 
Thanks FS..Given that the overall opinion is Monday will pop, I'm staying at 50 G, 50 S for Monday...Good Luck..

FS
 
I didn't get a chance earilier to post my reasons, but I'm basically trying to play some of this short term chop in the market. I figured there would be a little more up today and perhaps some red tommorrow.
 
We are hitting the bottoms of the channels however the channels are not well formed. There is likely to be a reaction to the Fed on way or another. I'll sit on the sidelines another day. High risk = high reward; I'm just not in a high risk mood today.
 
Will we get a sell the news type reaction? Markets are up this morning and some talking heads have even mentioned a "sell the news" as a possibility which in actuality probably decreased the probability.

The market expects at least a o.25% reduction from the Fed. It wants 0.50% reduction. I personally think that no change is also a possibility. The volitility that we have had is normal. We've enjoyed smooth sailing the last several years and people have gotten used to that. I also think we are going to see an economic slow down for the next year which will put economics back into the election discussion.

I'm on the sidelines till after I see how the market reacts to the Fed. If I was in the market I'd jump out today. Since I'm out of the market, I'm staying put.
 
Come back some and regroup 'C'. We don't want another another one of those false overbought breakouts like we had in July.
 
Thanks for posting your charts FS. I think I'll stay in G for another day or two and let things shake out, but then it's time to dive back in..:D:D:D

FS
 
I'm a man and I was wrong...

I can change...

If I have to...

I guess...

(Red Green)

Well, I was wrong. The markets have not pulled back much since taking off. I'm waiting for a spot to get in the market. Waiting has cost me dearly. I should have followed my early impulse to stay in the market till it had recovered. I'd be better off now. Oh well. I can change... I guess...
 
Hi FS:

Glad to see you posting today...you have been missed...you must be working too much...glad I'm retired...

I'm now wondering what the best strategy is for the 4th quarter...I'm still making too many IFT moves and need to find a better way to allocate and hold (for about a month) with an overall goal of being up 1% at the end of the month...I'm thing S is still the lagger so that's going to get a sizeable percentage of my allocation, however rates and liquidity issues still exist and that (to me) means keeping the portfolio balanced with some C fund. The dollar will lose more value if the Fed provides another rate cut, but I'm betting they will regardless...If you know of any magic theories, I know I'd enjoy hearing you're thoughts...

Later compadre,

FS
 
Hi FS:

Used to be "2 steps forward - one step back". Times have changed..at least for me...now it's "1 step forward and 2 steps back". That would be ok if the 1 step forward was a really big step...but we don't seem to get the same kind of bounces we used to...just 3 or 4 months ago...

Good to see you posting...and thanks for the charts..

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Times have changed..at least for me...now it's "1 step forward and 2 steps back". That would be ok if the 1 step forward was a really big step...but we don't seem to get the same kind of bounces we used to...just 3 or 4 months ago...
Click to expand...
It will become the norm if we get the "R" word.
 
There's plenty of reason to think we're headed that way...but seaonality may be our ally with the holiday season coming up...at least I hope so..

I was surprised to see durable goods down two months in a row..bummer..

And I hope the Fed doesn't cut again...but I think it's a forgone conclusion they will...the question is when..

Keep posting FS...you're comments are appreciated..

Your cuz...FS:D:D:D
 
Hedge bet. Moved more into C-fund. It should benefit from lower value dollar to a point. C-fund should bounce. If it doesn't, the downside risk is lower with the C-fund than the S-fund. I added slightly to the I-fund. I-fund has been the darling for a while now.
 
FS, nice charts, they're starting to show the seperation between the S&P and EFA... not in just performace percentage, but also in direction. I wonder if this is a short term trend or longer lasting -- several months?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Opportunistic Investors
Replies
0
Views
83
TommyIV
TommyIV
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Who Bought the Dip?
Replies
0
Views
4K
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Now what?
Replies
2
Views
225
Cactus
Cactus
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - TSP Funds Battle Volatility, S-Fund Claims Top Gains
Replies
0
Views
2K
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - FOMC Day
Replies
0
Views
2K
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top