FundSurfer account talk

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1. Stay put. I rode the market down. The market will most likely climb back out of this hole. There will be some volitility/retracement but staying put will get back what was lost eventually.

2. Stay put but get more agressive in S-fund. The S-fund took the biggest hit and is furthest from recovery. It has more potiential rebound than C or I. Making an IFT to 100% S would be risky but this is also how Pointman made a great return last year after transferring to S-fund after May/June drop and staying there till end of year.

3. Play the volitility. The markets are way up this morning after great gains yesterday. The market very rarely rockets back to new highs in a V shape. More likely there will be a retest of the lows. Since this move today is big and quick, on possible move would be to set some gains aside and wait for a retest to buy back in. An arguement against that would be that last Friday's drop was an unusual big event brought on by bad news and that we may not retest that low. This strategy has risk since we may not be able to time the volitility with our noon deadline. We could miss the swings and get whipsawed. It also has the greatest potiential gains.

At the moment I'm undecided.... I'm usually very aggressive but I like cleaner charts to work with when being aggressive.
 
FundSurfer said:
Options:

1. Stay put. I rode the market down. The market will most likely climb back out of this hole. There will be some volitility/retracement but staying put will get back what was lost eventually.

2. Stay put but get more agressive in S-fund. The S-fund took the biggest hit and is furthest from recovery. It has more potiential rebound than C or I. Making an IFT to 100% S would be risky but this is also how Pointman made a great return last year after transferring to S-fund after May/June drop and staying there till end of year.

3. Play the volitility. The markets are way up this morning after great gains yesterday. The market very rarely rockets back to new highs in a V shape. More likely there will be a retest of the lows. Since this move today is big and quick, on possible move would be to set some gains aside and wait for a retest to buy back in. An arguement against that would be that last Friday's drop was an unusual big event brought on by bad news and that we may not retest that low. This strategy has risk since we may not be able to time the volitility with our noon deadline. We could miss the swings and get whipsawed. It also has the greatest potiential gains.

At the moment I'm undecided.... I'm usually very aggressive but I like cleaner charts to work with when being aggressive.
Click to expand...

put 50 on black and 50 on red:)
 
I went as far as logging into tsp.gov before deciding against making an IFT. I'll sit tight another day. I would not argue with going to G since I almost did myself.
 
WOW! I just read Fred and started the phone call to bail out but then hung the phone up so I wouldn't change my mind.

We probably should have listened to the angel instead of the devil on our shoulders.
 
We had a very nice discernible W pattern intraday on today's close - here comes the big V or the U bottom. No waiting around for the crowd.
 
I think I'm getting seasick. Where's the exit from this rollercoaster?

Stuck. That's what I am. Today looks to be down big. At least a retest and maybe lower. I can't bail cause the rollercoaster has been to unpredictable. Might miss the next upswing/bounce.

Is the beginning of a bear? Actually all the profit reports have been good except financials. You have to think though that this is likely to change that as consumer confidence begins to get hit with all this negativity. I'm beginning to feel more pessimistic about longer term outlook.
 
I'm now expectng (hoping) that Monday is the "positive day" in all this if things stay as they are. However, I'm not willing to risk a lot going into Monday (maybe 20% -TBD). There is still a lot of room for a further fall if weekend events were to prove negative for markets. I have learned that we become more cautious after we retire..just figured that out this month..since I've already lost too much this year.

I think you hit the nail on the head...the beginnings of a bear market seems to be here..

I will be using your moniker as my philosophy in the days ahead..Surf at your own risk....Very appropriate FS...

Regards,

FS
 
Keep the faith. Everyone is expecting 1. this market to go lower and 2. the fed to cut rates. It's when sentiment hits it's all time lows when things bounce back and trounce on to new highs. I'd say anyone still invested like me is past the point of no return.
 
Bullitt said:
Keep the faith. Everyone is expecting 1. this market to go lower and 2. the fed to cut rates. It's when sentiment hits it's all time lows when things bounce back and trounce on to new highs. I'd say anyone still invested like me is past the point of no return.
Click to expand...
It's one thing to know that with your head and another to convince your gut. I know we'll bounce back, but we could have more down first. The bigger this gets news wise, the longer the lag effect as more Joe 6-packs get involved.
 
Just riding the choppy waters. I think the move to 100% I fund has promise but a dollar that is moving up is troublesome. The dollar might fall back tommorrow but it may gain more also as people see this bounce as decreasing the likelyhood of a FED rate cut.

My current allocation is 50%C, 25%S and 25%I. I think S & I will outpace C-fund but C-fund may benefit first from a flight to quality type reaction.
 
Hi FS:

I'm still holding back..I thought today might be the up day..it wasn't...so either the news is keeping things destabilized, and everyone's expecting the Fed to bail them out..

If Uncle Ben does so, I'll be upset unless he expounds several pounds of flesh from the banking industry. Either way, I still see some pain for at least another day or two.

God Luck tomorrow!!!

Later,

FS
 
Been buried at work, up to my eyeballs at home, and now I've caught a summer cold. I'm glad I've just decided to ride out the storm. I don't think I could have timed this market anyway.
 
Sorry to hear about the tough work schedule and the cold. Hope you get back to full speed quickly..

I think you might enjoy a recent exchange between Nnuts and Wolverine regarding timing. It sort of sums it all up:

Wolverine: Look at it this way Nnuut........you have part of this timing thing down anyhoo.

Nnuts: Hey, I've allways been able to do this, it's the other part that's killing me!
Regards,

FS
 
great charts, we're on our way to test those bottom lines of support -- then its buy, buy, buy. Ebb will go all green!!!!
 
FS:

Excellent charts. Are you creating those yourself on Excel. or are you getting them from some website?? Thanks...

FS
 
Awesome, Fundsurfer! :) Much thanks for posting these, even with your crazy schedule. It's good to see that someone else is reading similar channels.
 
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