FogSailing's Account Talk

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Well, I've decided to keep quiet for a while. I clearly underestimated the irrational exuberance of a tax cut for the 1%. But that's Wall Street and the market has skyrocketed beyond the year 2525.

All that said, 3 important numbers coming up;
Fibbo # 2584
Fibbos 25(89)…..think 2, 5, 89 all fib #’s
Fib pivot 2594

Next few days are going to be very very interesting, IMHO.

FS
 
Question to the Ethos: If the market is up 85% of the time, why do I choose to be in during the other 15%?

Please respond through divine providence...

Thanks.

FS
 
First post for quite some time. I have been playing it cool and have stayed out of the market since early Dec. Missed some nice gains but I played by a set of rules.
My thinking is that this rally blasted off long before any corporate tax cut. It's been a strong bull for 7 or 8 years? But I think the fundamentals right now are ….. basically useless.
A good friend of mine put it this way "It is that is too late to buy,…..but too early to sell." So, for the time being I'll just be standing near the door so that when people realize its time to leave
I can be ready to be the first one back in.

Good Luck in 2018 everyone.

FS
 
What's on deck this week. Most likely more downside. I hate being in the negative column this early into the year. Will have be smart and aggressive to turn it around. Still think that after a correction is through the market heads to 3000. But in the short term my guess is that tomorrow continues the pullback. If we're lucky, this thing does a dead cat bounce tomorrow but I'm not feeling it right now. So, this thing could bottom out for now somewhere in the 2650-2600 area. My most pessimistic view is that it pulls back to 2418. Lots to think about tonight. Ride it down or get out and take my loss. At this moment, i am considering heading to the Lily Pad. Most likely the increases in rates are part of the problem. Rates now approaching 3% from 2%, so a significant increase. We;ll see how it goes. All the best.
 
Not feeling it is right...my head says to buy in to this but my gut says to take a break to see whats next. Long term I think we're good but preserving my christmas money is my short term goal..LOL
The thought that we have been due for a huge correction for a long time weighs heavy.
 
My gut tells me we bounce and then decline to SPX 2450 or thereabouts. I don't think we're out of this yet.
Time to do my own damage control.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
My gut tells me we bounce and then decline to SPX 2450 or thereabouts. I don't think we're out of this yet.
Time to do my own damage control.

FS
Click to expand...
I got out yesterday just as the string pullers planned for us suckers! Kept to my plan of not going lower than if I had just remained in the g fund. There went my new truck money..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk
 
I lost in 2 days pretty much everything I made all last year. I'm not a happy camper right now.
Just my 2 cents. I'm guessing that stocks were driven down in part to allow buybacks at bargain prices. Companies want as much control as possible and buying back cheap sock is one way to make that happen.

FS
 
Yeah, the problem is none of us knows when these manipulated corrections are going to happen. We kept hearing "immenent correction" all last year and that kept, me at least, too jumpy.

If I just ignore it all and Buy-N-Hold I would have made twice as much as I did in 2017 and even incurring the recent losses I would be ahead of where I am now if I had been able to avoid these losses. Instead I got reduced 2017 gains and got included in the correction anyway.

We avoid Buy-N-Hold because the big losses scare us but from what I see they bite us anyways so why trade?
 
Right there with ya...I had decided I would pull the plug if I was getting close to what my G fund would have been if I had just stayed there. Well, day 2 of the drop was so extreme that when I chose to get out I ended up about 2K higher than what my g fund would have been so good on that but I gave back all my christmas rally money and all of January. I knew the rocket ship increases would be trouble but I was too greedy to reduce my exposure (I actually increased it). I honestly believe the drivers of the market do this stuff to get back money from those of us who just are trying to make enough to live well in retirement. Anyway, I'm sitting 100% in G and I'm not upset with my decision because it was my stop loss plan but I am mad that it looks like the market is just getting manipulated to me taking back money at the expense of those who cant afford to lose their savings. When I was younger I would have let it ride. Maybe there will be another hit to to wring out all the fear money to teach anyone who dared get back in so soon a lesson. Anyway....I hate gambling.


FogSailing said:
I lost in 2 days pretty much everything I made all last year. I'm not a happy camper right now.
Just my 2 cents. I'm guessing that stocks were driven down in part to allow buybacks at bargain prices. Companies want as much control as possible and buying back cheap sock is one way to make that happen.

FS
Click to expand...
 
Well duck and cover didn't help me in February. I was too late. Will take me months, maybe the whole year to recover. Currently still laying on the ground trying to recover the beating I took. Hopefully the shock wears off soon and I can begin to move. Hopefully everything still works. Falls are tougher on older guys.
 
Thanks Everyone. We are going through difficult times here on the home front. Our son is still going through recovery from a serious illness and a divorce and it has been a drain on ShieldMaiden and I. I still see about 2 to 3 months before we are freed up to go back to a quieter time. Three months ago I couldn't see that much light so things are improving. Thanks for your kind words. I look forward to rejoining the group again soon.

FS
 
Glad to hear that there is finally light at the end of the long tunnel. Hang in there. Family, friends and faith mean a lot.
 
FS life can be hard but I hope the Sun Shines on you and yours and the fog clears to brighter days. :D
 
I'm still plotting a trendline on SPX down to 2480. As always, it's the when...This morning I told myself the market would park itself at 2772 in the am and let the games begin with the dip buyers (as has been the recent custom). They turned out to be right. China (SSE) is hitting their resistance line. The question will be "Do the tariffs spell a worsening economy for them or do they bounce."

But for now, I'm still staying out of the market until this "churn" is over..
I still think we're due an "adjustment".
Makes me wonder when the VIX will give us a surprise..

FS
 
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