FogSailing's Account Talk

[rspring]

Are We There Yet???? Is 22000 the turning point????

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FS

I think we will find out today! I have the feeling that if we hit 22,000 the market (DOW) will reverse. It will be time to buy some protection if you have that opportunity. Good luck for those that are in the game.

 

[FogSailing]

An analyst post this and thought it was interesting: If RUT breaks 1397 then the entire consolidation phase for 8 long months from Dec 16 till date will be confirmed as smart money distribution…

The concept of long term money distribution would be a strategy by big money. It's like the old adage that you don't turn a super tanker on a dime. So if correct, what happened 8 months that caused a strategy change..hmmmmm

Personally, I have noticed a positive correlation between my p&l and randomness of going commando.

FS

 

[Whipsaw]

The slope of the incline in the RUT from Dec is only somewhat less steep than the slope from Feb '16 low to the election dip. Is the turn supposed to be toward the downside?

 

[FogSailing]

I'm not an expert on this WS, but I understand the answer is likely yes. The next pivot down would be approximately 1335. However, (if the assumption that big money has been taking money off the table is correct), the normal pivot at 1335 will not hold and the next pivot down is 1288. I'm not saying this is what is going to happen, just regurgitating some of what I read earlier today.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Several analysts see a short squeeze to 2466 if S&P can break 2448. They would be selling into the bounce. Many are bearish in the short term. Here are a few graphics I found that I thought were interesting. The hard data came from ZH. I really don't like or follow ZH but it indicates that Fed money has done a good job of keeping this economy afloat amid the real data. Just FYI.





FS

 

[FogSailing]

Still expecting more pullback next week. Looking ahead (1) U.S. TRADE OFFICE SAYS FORMALLY LAUNCHES SECTION 301 INVESTIGATION INTO CHINA TRADE PRACTICES REGARDING TECHNOLOGY AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY and (2) US and South Korea are scheduled to conduct military exercises next week. Think I'll hunker down until after the eclipse.

Also, very interesting article on inflation and climate. Just FYI. Warm Temperatures Mean Lower Inflation, To a Point - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

FS

 

[FogSailing]

NK missile launch looks to still be news today as well as lack of tax plan. Expecting market sell off to 2430 or lower. If SPX bounces at 2428 pivot and closes above 2436, I expect a rally. If not, I see a continued pullback to 2411. Guessing it's a good time to buy gold and silver again.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

SPX bounced at 2428 and now above 2436 at 2241. Will be interesting to see where it ends today. Any guesses? I predict 2437 with a short squeeze in the am, then who knows.

Winner gets an "atta-boy or "atta-girl"

FS

 

[blueroadster]

How about 2,446.30

 

[ravensfan]

:nono: :smashfreakB:

 

[evilanne]

So what do you think it will rally to?

 

[FogSailing]

2455 is my guess for a high today EA... yesterday was a small rally but no breakout..everything is still constrained and rangebound within the Fib pivots 2428 and 2456.

FS

 

[evilanne]

Very close, better than expected 2,457.59

 

[FogSailing]

I know EA. It's an interesting set up for today. The final 2457.59 is above the Fib pivot 2456 so a bullish end top the day. People are talking about 3 white soldiers and a green candle on the blogs. Lots of joyous exuberance out there. Bulls are saying above 2458 and we go to 2468 with a possible Fib extension to 2484 (for Elliott wavers). On the other hand, a lot of risk for a small gain if the Mr. Market decides the party's over.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well, the market went up up up this week. With the earlier decline down to 2454 it seemed like a pullback was in the works. NAZ made 3.9%, Dow 1%. Wow, what a turnaround. Will it now continue through pivots 2484, 2500 and ultimately 2525. If I can get lucky with either sideways action or a small pullback on Monday, I think I'll jump back in. Upside action looks promising given MACD and RSI. Good luck all.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Feels like a shakeout day. Market is fluctuating in strange ways. NAZ is up. Other indices are down. Yield curve is down surprisingly when the market seems so bullish. Yen is down but metals and bonds are both positive. Downward movement of yen makes me think of coiled spring. I think tomorrow is going to be a giant day for the I Fund. Dollar is down as well which is only thing that makes sense. Best of luck out there.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I'm thinking this could be the top FOR NOW..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Bonds appear to be ready for more downside. The BB's appear to be expanding and bonds have been selling off since early September. Just my 2 cents..

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

HI FS -- Definitely agree. I have been in F fund at 40%.
Decided it is time to exit. Just can't seem to pull trigger to get into equities because they are so high. With the new tax package being discussed, that could cause more excitement but I just can't buy in when I have not seen a good drop. Thought that would happen in Aug/Sept, but it has not materialized. So I guess will see about October.

Best wishes to you and to everyone!!!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. Do you think you will be coming back to TSP poker table? I think the new season starts this weekend. The Cuda would like to have chance to use here nicely sharpened teeth... going to my special tooth sharpening salon this weekend!!

 

[FogSailing]

Hi DBA: I still plan to rejoin the group. The problem has been I have been very tied up on dealing with some tough issues on the home front and things are still unsettled. As I've gotten older, I don't cope with things as well as I used to and as simple as it is to log into poker, it's something I haven't been able to find the time for yet. Don't count me out. I look forward to displaying all my Chapter 8 skills again one day in the near future.

Thanks.

FS