FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

If C holds above 2755. that seems the place to be...2743 and counting up as i write this..
Wish we could buy into NASDAQ and CL...or any of the sectors...
But, alas, our Thrift Board can't see that far...

 

[nnuut]

If C holds above 2755. that seems the place to be...2743 and counting up as i write this..
Wish we could buy into NASDAQ and CL...or any of the sectors...
But, alas, our Thrift Board can't see that far...

Maybe the Fog will lift and the sea will calm? Good Sailing.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi FogSailing, It is so nice to see you posting. You are greatly missed. I hope all is improving on the home front, and that you and your family are doing well. The market has been very tough to figure out this year. Wishing you the best!! :smile:

 

[FogSailing]

Well it didn't bust 2745, and down she goes. This churn is really starting to feel like we're headed for another ass kicking. I've already had 2 this year and currently enjoying the third. Think it's time to head back to G. Will fight again another day..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Thank You DBA. We're still in the tunnel back on the homefront but things are starting to get better. Our son was able to find a good job that matches his skill sets. He gets health insurance and a 401k starting next week. That was good. So one day at a time. Love the picture of sailboats in the harbor. Few things compare to sailing, maybe golf...but I'm better at sailing. My best to everyone.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Bears in control. I smell 2651 coming up. Ticked at myself for jumping in. Have to decide my next move.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

We’re in a trading range..(I just said that to sound smart...heh heh) Honestly, we're just as likely to break 2500s as it is to break 2800, just because we’re near the top of the range doesn’t mean we’re breaking through it. Often markets make it back to the top of the trading ranges just before large moves down. See October 2007 marginal new high and July 2015 retest of the high as examples. Potential is definitely there for a big move down.. let’s see what happens if it starts making lower lows sub 2700, could become a very sharp break lower at that point. Alternatively above 2800 is bullish.. just adjust to what the market does.

I use RSI a lot as a lagging indicator..It's basically sideways and down some for the past several months... I don't know if that will translate in a major pullback or not.

I have to believe that the big boys know exactly what is going on and are enjoying their China/USA EU/USA drama fests.

Unfortunately, we're always the ones stung by these antics.

FS

 

[PessOptimist]

Thanks for your thoughts. I hope you have been OK during the last three days "monsoon 2018" activity.

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks PessOptimist. We've had rain but escaped the deluge that folks got down near South Mountain. Today, I think we hit 114, tomorrow 117. I'm glad the AC is working well. I'm planning on doing as little as possible until the temps cool down a bit.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

This market is still full of "vim and vigger". It's slowing at a snails pace. I'm looking for a reason for it to drop 30 points soon and that Tweet to Iran may just do the trick. I'm guessing it starts and back and forth and while the sabres are rattling we'll see our 30 point drop. I'm also watching oil. It went to 66 today. If it slides, that would support a downward move in SPX. I know we're due a much larger pullback, but it hasn't materialized yet. I suspect none of us will see it coming when it happens. meanwhile, we're riding a 10 year bull.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Ok, Facebook is a bit of a MAJOR SURPRISE...The EU Talks today were a "punt". Nothing that hurts or helps...just push it off for another day. Using Fib's I always saw the top of the current range at about 2878. I wasn't expecting that to happen so it looks like it (or something close) is going to happen. Still expect some kind of reasonable pullback and breather but my BULL meter says the market is headed towards 3000 by year end. I'm tempted to buy and hold but i remember that old phrase...Friends don't let friends buy and hold.

I wish we could have stops in our buys to protect our downside. What is wrong with these TSP people. They fail to supply us with simple fail-safes for our futures.

That's my grousing for tonight. Best to all in your trading.

FS

 

[PessOptimist]

Thanks PessOptimist. We've had rain but escaped the deluge that folks got down near South Mountain. Today, I think we hit 114, tomorrow 117. I'm glad the AC is working well. I'm planning on doing as little as possible until the temps cool down a bit.

FS

Hope you are enjoying the cool off to 109. My AC is making ominous noises,
PO

 

[FogSailing]

We were at 116 out here yesterday. made the mistake of taking the trash out with putting on sandals...Ouch..
Today seems a bit milder today but not much..
Take care of that AC. Folks who don't live here don't understand how critical it is..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

OK, so we're finally getting the 30-40 point pullback i was expecting 2 days ago. It's sitting at 2818 right now. "IF" it slides under 2814, I expect to see 2807 or 2795 by close. That will make next week very interesting. Time to get the charts out and look at patterns over the weekend.

Best to everyone in your trading.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

If it breaks under 2975, there is further downside expected. Several theories out there but most say further downside will still be limited. Several I follow say downside range is 2740-2780 before the market moves positive again. Lots of experts still looking for SPX to hit 3000 by year end.

 

[weatherweenie]

2975?

If it breaks under 2975, there is further downside expected. Several theories out there but most say further downside will still be limited. Several I follow say downside range is 2740-2780 before the market moves positive again. Lots of experts still looking for SPX to hit 3000 by year end.

 

[tom4jean]

2975?

I'm guessing he switched the middle numbers since his earlier post mentions "2795".
Thanks for the updates FogSailing Nice to see your analysis.

 

[FogSailing]

I'm guessing he switched the middle numbers since his earlier post mentions "2795".
Thanks for the updates FogSailing Nice to see your analysis.

My apologies guys. I transposed the 7 and 9. It should be 2795 which is potential Fib resistance.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

 

[FogSailing]

Looks like we are in No Man's land this am. Given where Nasdaq is, and expecting a bearish reversal, the Sto looking not good, and oil churning, I'm feeling more sideways or downside before this thing takes off again. Today is a cat bounce at best. Still expecting 3000 SPX by year end.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I'm expecting the Fed to surprise and raise rates later today. Bonds are already starting to sink. But those Trump tariffs, what does that really mean...especially impose verse propose...
Two short terms scenarios, we either head toward 2830 in a short squeeze or we don't and head down to 2750. A few minutes ago 8 of 12 sectors were in the RED for the day. I think the market will get a short squeeze and then down. The question is will the squeeze come today, or tomorrow? If the market heads down to 2809-2811, then I see a short squeeze this afternoon. VIX was up as of a few minutes ago. Right now, I'm holding until I get a better feel.

FS