FogSailing's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Fog, It has been quite some time since we saw you at the TSP poker table. Maybe you will consider joining us. It has been tough to get 4 persons to play since Burro passed away... most weeks it is just 2 or 3. But we are trying to keep it going. Judy joined us one night a couple weeks back. If you play, I promise to be nice! lol... NOT!

We are still playing every Sunday or Monday (alternate each week) at 7 PM CT. It is a bit hard to remember which night we play, so I am thinking to post schedule once a week on TSP Poker thread .

As for getting old, I think we all are.. lol.... Last Saturday I went to visit my sister, planned to go out to karaoke. We decided to rest before going and we both fell asleep and woke up at midnight!!!! ugghh…. To make matters worse, as I headed to the living room, she comes out and asks, "Hey you want a shot of fiber?" I told her OMG I can't believe you are saying that, I thought you were going to ask if I wanted to have a shot of tequila!!! Now this is sadly sick! Gosh what is next... bones creaking??? :blink:

Hope all is going well with you!! Take Care DBA :smile:

Thanks DBA! Taking it all one day at a time..

It's been a tough 18 months. And for some reason my age is catching up to me..

I guess it's my AGE:laugh::laugh:

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks DBA!!

I hope 2019 will be the TURNAROUND year...as long as it's NOT a 360...

It's great to have friends..

FS

 

[Tsunami]

As for getting old, I think we all are.. lol.... Last Saturday I went to visit my sister, planned to go out to karaoke. We decided to rest before going and we both fell asleep and woke up at midnight!!!! ugghh…. To make matters worse, as I headed to the living room, she comes out and asks, "Hey you want a shot of fiber?" I told her OMG I can't believe you are saying that, I thought you were going to ask if I wanted to have a shot of tequila!!! Now this is sadly sick! Gosh what is next... bones creaking??? :blink:

Hope all is going well with you!! Take Care DBA :smile:

I've got the bones creaking part down pat. You should here my right knee as I walk up the stairs (crepitus). Crunch, crunch, crunch. :worried:
That's part of the reason for us moving to Florida. It's heaven for affordable one-story homes there, thus no more stairs!

Replying to funny comments by Pessoptimist on this thread about his New Year's Eve plans...I'll probably fall asleep by 11 pm as usual...only thing that might change that is if my Cougs go to a New Year's Day bowl game and I manage to get tickets and go.

 

[FogSailing]

I've got the bones creaking part down pat. You should here my right knee as I walk up the stairs (crepitus). Crunch, crunch, crunch. :worried:
That's part of the reason for us moving to Florida. It's heaven for affordable one-story homes there, thus no more stairs!

Replying to funny comments by Pessoptimist on this thread about his New Year's Eve plans...I'll probably fall asleep by 11 pm as usual...only thing that might change that is if my Cougs go to a New Year's Day bowl game and I manage to get tickets and go.

Hey TS. Hope you are enjoying FL. It was on our list but my wife made the call for AZ because of her fear of hurricanes.

Just saw this: Stocks, Yuan Tumble On Report US To Announce Tariffs On All China Imports If Trump-Xi Meeting Fails article published at 2:28 but the big boys knew it before way before then.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting. Which way will the wind blow?

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Hey TS. Hope you are enjoying FL. It was on our list but my wife made the call for AZ because of her fear of hurricanes.

Just saw this: Stocks, Yuan Tumble On Report US To Announce Tariffs On All China Imports If Trump-Xi Meeting Fails article published at 2:28 but the big boys knew it before way before then.

Tomorrow is going to be interesting. Which way will the wind blow?

FS

I'm holding until Monday or Tuesday. With tech stocks taking a dive I see SPX taking a dive, despite the Jobs Numbers. My expectation is a decline to between 2595 and 2604 on Monday or Tuesday. Those a re pivots and resistance and I think that's the time to jump back in. Just my 2 cents. I haven't made a more than a nickel this year, so my opinions are worth about 2 cents.

Good Luck out there!

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

wait...120 points down by Monday or Tuesday!?!?!? No offense but I hope you are wrong ant the 2700 area holds! If we hit the 2600 area I think low 2500's are likely before a rebound.

Good luck and great weekend to all!

 

[ravensfan]

Hey FS! It has been a long time. Glad to see you are posting again. Missed having your input.

I was very tempted to jump in this week, but had to wait until yesterday for my November allotment of IFT's. However, Tuesday's election has kept me on the sidelines for now. Glad to see someone else thinking to wait until during/after the election for an entry.

Good luck and have a great weekend!!!

 

[FogSailing]

None taken Mcglives. The day ended on a pivot...strange...

So if Monday busts below resistance at 2710, I see it headed to 2666. After that...who knows...I take em one pivot-one Fib at a time and Monday could see a falling knife. On the other hand, if it shoots up Monday to 2731, I don't think it going above 2831 in any scenario but I don't want to be there holding the falling knife as it heads south. My sense is despite the jobs report, the deficit, increased rates, tech stock declines, reduced home sales, global market declines, and tariffs are all bad stories. Just don't know exactly what date they come home to roost...pre-election or post election..I'm still guessing pre-election..See you guys next week....

FS

 

[FogSailing]

The market posted gains to 2738 today (in my 2731 region). I don't see it firing higher from here. If the Pubs win (hold or pick up seats in House or senate), I expect a big rally to 2831. Otherwise,I expect the market to unwind to 2666 in several stages over the next week or two. I'm going to continue to hold.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Finally seeing the turn around.
On the sideline until we get to 2666...
Then i think it will be time to play..
Just one caution...2598 is also in play as we head under 2730 which is likely.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

We dipped lower today than expected. Oil is in more than a retreat...more like everyone's jumped ship...
Until it stabilizes i see more down ..
Some folks thinking bounce tomorrow...not me...not yet.
I see the momentum as bearish with another push down to perhaps as low as 2598..
I'll recalculate once it hits 2666...
It could decide to rally from there...
When Will It RALLY....ONLY THE SHADOW KNOWS..

 

[FogSailing]

As we head into tomorrow,,
I see resistance at 2685, 2671, and 2653...
If it rallies here, could expect a rally headed north to 2770 or thereabouts.. IF it turns around..
If it goes lower than 2653, Look out below to 2598 and...
If that is the trend, I'm staying out of it until it bottoms..

Worst prediction I've seen regarding this correction is 2300..
I have no idea if any of the worst prediction info is correct or not..

Earlier in the year I saw market guys saying 3500 by year end..
When it turns around, maybe 3000 tops is my guess.

All the best in your trading..

FS

 

[nasa1974]

As we head into tomorrow,,
I see resistance at 2685, 2671, and 2653...
If it rallies here, could expect a rally headed north to 2770 or thereabouts.. IF it turns around..
If it goes lower than 2653, Look out below to 2598 and...
If that is the trend, I'm staying out of it until it bottoms..

Worst prediction I've seen regarding this correction is 2300..
I have no idea if any of the worst prediction info is correct or not..

Earlier in the year I saw market guys saying 3500 by year end..
When it turns around, maybe 3000 tops is my guess.

All the best in your trading..

FS

The problem the last two days is that we started off in the green but by the end of the day investors were selling the rally. Lets hope we can maintain something positive by the end of the day.

 

[FogSailing]

Just a few tidbits of info I'm sharing from an investor:

Several prior November sell offs found support and began rallies around Thanksgiving. Perhaps due to Santa Claus rally sentiment?

2011 – Bottomed Nov 25, day after Thanksgiving. S&P hit 1159. Rallied 9% to 1267 by Dec 5.
2010 – Bottomed November 29 (2nd trading day after Thanksgiving). S&P hit 1174. Straight up through mid-February.
2008 – Bottomed Nov 21 (4 trading days before T-Giving). S&P hit 741. Rallied 27% to 943 in early January.
2007 – Bottomed Nov 26 (2 trading days after T-Giving). S&P hit 1406. Rallied 8% to 1523 by December 11.

Things appear to have gone positive today but NASA has it right. That pattern has been in place a few days with selloffs in the afternoon.
If we stay north of SPX 2700 today, I plan to jump in for a bit.
Just FYI.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Just watching the SPX....the trend has not turned around...
I'm staying put until I see it headed north of 2725....

FS

 

[FogSailing]

The big boys pulled a fast one on us.
Not to mention the added talk of a new rate hike...and down we go.
I got in partially on Friday thinking we were headed to 2815..WRONG
Right now, we're on the road to 2598..
So the question is right it down or not.
I'm hoping for a small bounce tomorrow so i can sell with a smaller loss.
I'll probably make my IFT back to G and wait till Dec to do anything.
Bear markets are tough for TSPers...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Ok..I missed completing my IFT by 2 minutes on Friday...
So...sticky pants time..
The way i see it, we bounce at 2538 and head north OR, we don't and head to the next pivot 2617.
Other support levels on the way down include 2598 and then 2550.
While i think we have more downside facing us, I don't see the market going there yet..maybe January.
If I'm wrong (which happens more often than not), it will likely be because liquidity is drying up and perhaps that impacts things more quickly than i anticipate.
So, I'm in for the ride down to 2550 if needed.
Below that, I'll take the loss and IFT to G to wait for things to settle out because I would have been 100% WRONG.
All the best in your trading.
FS

 

[FogSailing]

Ok, I wasn't feeling it so took 90% off the table on Friday.
A bounce from here would likely mean a ride to 2770 or better.
A decline from here means pivots\support 2617 up next and then 2598.
I'll have to reassess what to do next week.
FS

 

[FogSailing]

My instincts are saying Stay Out. We're not THRU heading down yet. Fibs say 2652, 2632, and 2598 are support.
So given that and my poor timing this year, everyone feel free to buy today..
You'll probably make a mint.

FS

 

[WorkFE]

I'm 100% G, not inclined to jump in yet but still have over an hour to think about it.