FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Had another thought...Checked the past info and market indicated a 94% probability of rate hike in Sept. Maybe Fed says they plan to hike in Sept, Dec, and again 3-4 times next year. They would likely spook the markets. Plus whatever Trump says on tariffs. I've decided to hold until the chop settles down. Best of Luck out there.

 

[FogSailing]

Short squeeze occurred up to 2841. So what's next? If it heads up, 2878 is the Fib pivot. Beyond and we're headed to new highs. Which is why I'm holding right now. Too close to the SPX highs. If it's a short squeeze, the market will retrace down to 2780 before rebounding. Waiting for a cheaper price to buy in.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Straight up or not at all. Still looking for 2887 as a high.
Yellow flag below 2832 for bulls. Red flag below 2825
It may be that the zip the tax cuts brought to the market may be fizzling out.
And the fed isn't doling out money like the good old days.
Many are saying the market hits 3000 by year end. Others saying a pullback to 2530 is in order by November..
Take your pick.
Staying minimally invested for now.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

If this picture is correct, we're at or near the top for the time being..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

If it's at the top the pullback will have to move through this resistance..
…still think regression…
2858, 2835, 2798, 2767, 2750, 2731

Still, now that everyone is thinking pullback...don't be surprised if the big boys take her higher..

FS

 

[nasa1974]

Good day so far for those in the "S" fund.

 

[Cactus]

Until that sell off at the end of the day that cut the gain in half.

How I hate those end of day sell offs.

 

[FogSailing]

So far, the Fibs are exactly correct. If resistance at 2836 holds, i think the market bounces to 3000. If not, next stop is 2800 or 2798. Lots of resistance there as well.
Let's see what transpires next week.
For what it's worth, increased costs of steel and aluminum products because of the tariffs have arrived. Many cities complaining about it on their larger purchases. Stand by for more job losses in SC, AL, and IA in the not too distant future. Expect to see spikes in all products using steel and aluminum.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I'm guessing we're headed to 2819 today based on yesterdays pay back for the big boys. Volume was nill. Some days you just realize the big boys win because they own everything.

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

I'm guessing we're headed to 2819 today based on yesterdays pay back for the big boys. Volume was nill. Some days you just realize the big boys win because they own everything.

FS

nailed it

 

[FogSailing]

As we head into a new week...here's a thought I found worth consideration..

China is just about to finish its bear market and US is just about to finish its bull market?

Here's a picture of the long term graph for RUT..

Best of luck Out There..



FS

 

[FogSailing]

I have no idea where things go this week. All the bulls are saying more more more...
With so much enthusiasm, it had has me questioning whether that is true...
Good luck. i went to sidelines last week awaiting a new entry point.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I'm still sitting almost completely out...missed the pullback..
My guess is two more days of recovery and more pullback.
Here's the fibs i see as we head into a downward trend for the next 4-6 months..

2689.75
2595
2450
And while on the extreme outskirts of possibility 2100 if if falls below 2450.

So much for my Xmas Cheer this year..

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

We might not even get that. I know it is only a little bit since markets closed but, with that strong finish, I expected some carry over into futures trading...but they are pretty flat. IMO, One bit of bad news this weekend and we get to hear a toilet bowl on Monday.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Futures are down on the DOW mini right now, but only 25 points. I'm still watching. FS, I don't use Fibonacci but I would like to do that.

 

[FogSailing]

Expecting a drop to 2689-2650 if the SPX goes under 2700 today. I actually don't expect that as of this moment. If it holds above 2700, expect a bounce to 2758 followed by a decline to the Fibs. I wish our LATENCY LADEN TSP System was more responsive to our IFTs but that a subject for another day. Good Luck Out There!

FS

 

[Mcqlives]

You post and it drops to 2686...you really are sitting on Wall Street raking in millions every day aren't ya?!?!?!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Bingo! FS, You were spot on...It closed at 2656. but wow ...what a bloodbath we've had. :sigh:

Take care and best wishes! :smile:

 

[FogSailing]

Nice rebound this AM but we are really in No-Mans land here. If it had stayed above 2700 yesterday, I'd have jumped in. My sense of it is that the SPX sticks close to where it is for the rest of the day. If this is the beginning of a bear market, we should see another decline. If not tomorrow, Monday for Tuesday...at least that's my guess. If it's not a bear market, expect a big upside to 2758 -2783.

Best of Luck out there.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Bingo! FS, You were spot on...It closed at 2656. but wow ...what a bloodbath we've had. :sigh:

Take care and best wishes! :smile:

Thanks DBA! Taking it all one day at a time..

It's been a tough 18 months. And for some reason my age is catching up to me..

I guess it's my AGE:laugh::laugh:

FS