FogSailing's Account Talk

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Reading the market this year has been a real challenge. I'm finally beginning to accept that not being flexible and admitting being wrong is the main reason for my less than stellar performance thus far. I can argue that the Fed has been my friend (but I failed to see it in time) and the fundamentals not so much (because the Fed action has skewed the results). Hope and Lady Luck haven't been around as friends this year. I'm beginning to finally accept that changing mentally from short to long (and vice versa) quickly is a real stressor. Since January's big fall where I stayed the course and lost a fair bit I've been quite jumpy. My objective was to try to make something approaching 1% per month and jump out quickly, then waiting for several days to calm down before re-entering the market. Of course that strategy hasn't worked well. Both timing and IFT limitations have worked against me in this regard. So, I'm accepting that because I changed my approach (not willing or able to accept the loss and stay in while the market runs further against them), I have limited my returns. The hardest part is forgetting the sucker punch I took in January. Changing behavior is as old as speculation itself, and it has cost me 5-8% thus far this year. I have decided to thin out my basket of market goodies and limit my gurus to one person and try to make my best decisions within our TSP bubble. Only rules for the rest of the year (1)buy low sell high) (2) be willing to walk the wall of worry (3) don’t add to losers. The oldest rules in the game ! At least I'm in positive territory for the year but the return is ridiculously small. Best of luck to all in your investing!

FS
 
Still waiting for an entry point. Unfortunately (using DWCPF as an example), if I jumped in now I would be chasing and buying high. Waiting for another opportunity hopefully soon. Also, SPX has not broken 2111 which I view as a key resistance level. looks nice if you're in though...Sto, RSI and MACD are all cookin... Yellen speaks later today so if she is dovish, I would expect to see 2111 broken....if not, who knows...

View attachment 38462

FS
 
Looks like we're picking up where we left off on Friday. EU and Japan down in a major way. So does SPX have the mojo to bounce at 2072. I'm guessing not. If you follow Elliott Wave stuff, wave C = A. In this regard, a breach of 2085 is only an early warning that there is more downside. A breach of lower channel/trendline drawn from 1810 to 2026 sits around 2063ish today but climbing 2-3 pts/day. Only when that line is breached and stays below, will there be confidence that we are still in an expanded flat with target of 1985ish or 1.618*Int A based on 2121.

It will be entertaining as always to watch the PPT do its thing.

FS
 
Tomorrow is the day before the Fed meeting (Just caught that...should have looked at the calendar this morning....retirement is making me lazy). Based on recent history, the markets seem to rally the day before the Fed. So will that occur or will there be rumors/stories that mess with everyone's mind... Sort of interesting to see how things play out overnight...Yen up, oil down, dollar down, EU down, Asia down......

Even if we bounce, still think we're headed down to 2062 or lower (2020-2030) before we see another strong impulse upward. Lots of strength in this market, even if it is bit tired.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Tomorrow is the day before the Fed meeting (Just caught that...should have looked at the calendar this morning....retirement is making me lazy). Based on recent history, the markets seem to rally the day before the Fed. So will that occur or will there be rumors/stories that mess with everyone's mind... Sort of interesting to see how things play out overnight...Yen up, oil down, dollar down, EU down, Asia down......

Even if we bounce, still think we're headed down to 2062 or lower (2020-2030) before we see another strong impulse upward. Lots of strength in this market, even if it is bit tired.

FS
Click to expand...

Got this from the weekly forecast for the week of June 13th by Peter Adams He is speaking of the S&P 500 - "Resistance near 2116 for the SPX was violated for one day before weakness took command, and a retreat led to a close at 2096.07 This was a net of nearly 3 points down for the week, and the index was essentially unchanged. Look for a retest of the recent highs near 2120 before rejection, and a potential decline to the 2040 area soon after. Failure to hold 2040 can lead to support near 1960."
 
Weird start today for the markets. Maybe today is a head fake. Seems like something is bubbling underneath the surface....quietly....just sitting there waiting to make it's move...

I'll check things later to see what side the coin flip landed on and whether it's big oil, the PPT, the CB's, or other factors that made the day for the market.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Weird start today for the markets. Maybe today is a head fake. Seems like something is bubbling underneath the surface....quietly....just sitting there waiting to make it's move...

I'll check things later to see what side the coin flip landed on and whether it's big oil, the PPT, the CB's, or other factors that made the day for the market.

FS
Click to expand...

The Marketwatch 'Market Stream' is all about investors seeking safe havens ahead of the FED and BREXIT. Something smells fishy in china for that matter.
 
My guess is that Ms. Yellen has her work cut out for her tomorrow if she wants to the markets to move higher. That would be using the PPT's best iron pumper to push the market higher. In truth, I think this time we head down because oil is continuing to move lower, inventory builds reported across the board almost unheard of for this time of year (summer driving season), and we are about to enter into seasonal weakness for oil prices at end of the June/early July. I don't think refineries head into maintenance until August so no immediate end to the downtrend.

Here's a graph on oil today:

View attachment 38524

Of course, that is all just a guess.

FS
 
It's always scary when the market arrives at an inflection point and based on several analysts opinions, we've now arrived. This most current uptrend has rallied 95 points, SPX 2026-2121, in a relatively short timeframe. This week pulled back to SPX 2050, retracing nearly 80% of that advance. This is quite odd for an ongoing uptrend and could suggest a new downtrend is underway, or is it that "the powers that be" are just that good at creating uncertain market environments that are hard to read for the average investor? The key levels to watch naturally are SPX 2050 and SPX 2026. The first in the upper range of the 2043 pivot, and the second the upper range of the 2019 pivot. IMO, a breakdown of these levels could suggest a retest of the low SPX 1800’s again. Quite a serious decline. However, Should the Brits vote to Bremain on Thursday, there's probably lots of money to be made in the immediate moment and I would guess a huge market rally, with a likely resumption of the uptrend. Best to your trading this upcoming week!

FS
 
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FogSailing,

Why would a BrexIt be a big deal. If the I-Fund drops it might be time to overweight it. Kinda depends on whether the I-Fund will actually remain a fund of developed international markets - or will it dump Britain if it is no longer in the EU. Britain and Germany are the financial work horses of Europe. Do you really think the rest of Europe will initiate tariffs or something to punish one of their regions economic powerhouses. That would be kinda dumb...

However, if only Germany and Japan remain in the I Fund (the others are bit players and some could say Japan is as well) than it will dump. My guess is that Germany will get out soon as well. How many responsible countries want to pay for France and Italy and Greece?
 
Why would a BrexIt be a big deal?


Just look at the markets today, it's a huge deal. I had an IFT in Friday morning to go 100% I fund. Everything I saw told me to do that including my system, but my gut made me change my mind and pull the IFT at the last minute. Argh, missed out on 3% or more for today! My mind is still screaming fear today, saying don't do it...but Cramer says it's a suckers rally and don't buy it...that gives me confidence to go ahead and get in, 100% I fund...and I'm getting on a plane in a few hours heading for Cali so I can't change my mind this time LOL.
 
Hi Boghie: I look at Brexit in a similar way that I looked at the Greek crisis. These situations create a high degree of uncertainty because there are so many layers and connections and no one likes opening Pandora's Box. I'm beginning to accept that the market enjoys throwing these events in our path and creating this wall of fear. And I use Elliott Wave to help me understand some of the most probable outcomes. This year has been very difficult because of the high level of involvement by the CB's which skew the fundamentals but is still helpful to me. As soon as this one gets done, there will be a new behemoth rising to gain our attention...no idea what it will be but I do know that it will be a market mover. Hope that answers your question Boghie. All this stuff is just my opinion...that and a dime will get you a cup of coffee..:D

FS
 
Tsunami said:
Why would a BrexIt be a big deal?


Just look at the markets today, it's a huge deal. I had an IFT in Friday morning to go 100% I fund. Everything I saw told me to do that including my system, but my gut made me change my mind and pull the IFT at the last minute. Argh, missed out on 3% or more for today! My mind is still screaming fear today, saying don't do it...but Cramer says it's a suckers rally and don't buy it...that gives me confidence to go ahead and get in, 100% I fund...and I'm getting on a plane in a few hours heading for Cali so I can't change my mind this time LOL.
Click to expand...

I-Fund is down at the moment, everything else is way up... seems odd.
 
As Jerry Lee Lewis would say...there's a whole lot of shakin going on...by the Da Boyz under the surface... Sort of like listening to thunderbolts in the clouds but can't see em...just feel em and catch glimpses of light...No idea how long this lasts but someone needs to be keeping an eye on volume because if the big boyz are selling or buying...well...nuff said...Right now they've got us all watching Brexit\Bremain..

FS
 
DWCPF started off in a negative position. I am watching the SPX at 2083. Right now the markets are trying to regain some of yesterdays pullback through a slow grinding process. If they can hold through the morning they may succeed. However, if the market falls below 2083 I expect a pullback to 2070 region. If not, I'm guessing we make a little money in the afternoon. Looking at the MACD, I think it indicates that things are tiring. RSI appears to be moving up though. The polls are indicating that BREXIT fails and volume is light. My risk tolerance is lower so may reduce my exposure today. Best to you in your investing.

FS
 
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