FogSailing's Account Talk

[Maricar19]

What does your chart infer? sorry, dummie here.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi Maricar. it indicates a head and shoulders pattern and that we are at or near a "possible topping" of the 2nd shoulder. Just an indicator as information.

FS

 

[Maricar19]

Hi Maricar. it indicates a head and shoulders pattern and that we are at or near a "possible topping" of the 2nd shoulder. Just an indicator as information.

FS

so, are we approaching the top or are on the top or downhill?

 

[FogSailing]

That's the same question I ask myself Maricar...

There are 2 theories...(1) we blow right through 2135 SPX and don't stop till at least 2179. That is one outcome for Monday; or (2) the markets do what they always do. As of this morning, almost all the news is bullish (nare a bear to be found) ...so the markets are contrary and pullback..

Monday will tell the tale...Good luck out there.

FS

 

[Maricar19]

so, are we approaching the top or are on the top or downhill?

so, if we are approaching the top of the 2nd shoulder, it might go higher than last Friday? and then a lower high if it continues to the 3rd shoulder? of course, these are all ifs.

 

[FogSailing]

My GUESS is that it stays UP on Monday. If the KISS principle is true, all indicators say it was an impulse wave on top of three white soldiers and we're continuing up higher than last Friday. I don't have any idea about the rest of the week. However, what I have noticed about the markets in 2016 is that about every 6 weeks the market has taken a dip. Next week is week 6 again according to my count and there is a possibility the pattern repeats. All guessing on my part. Best of luck to you!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

On Thursday I was concerned about the pullback in oil. However, having taken a few minutes to look at everything the Yen is probably where the action will be next week. The Yen looks to be overvalued since the Brexit vote. I believe it was trading around 107 and now is trading at 100 or close to it. If the Yen gets devalued (for whatever reason), look for the US markets to move up. We live in interesting times.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Article on the Carlucci Indicator.....another interesting piece of info to consider this week..

To me, what's most interesting is that this indicator uses both price and TA in the calculation. Someone needs to modify these indicators by incorporating CB interference in the picture. That would make indicators like this one more useful.

Best Stock Market Indicator Update - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Just checked futures and they are devaluing the Yen again...stinking central banks.

View attachment 38842

Tomorrow (I believe) is options Friday...so while earlier today key technical data was indicating pullback\consolidation: my guess is the market will now probably be up again tomorrow...seems like the powers that be are still trying to get all the mom and pops to buy in so they pull the rug out on Monday...or sometime next week. VIX is still retreating and oil is above $45.

If the CB's lower rates and continue to print more money....things should float higher once the pullback\consolidation is complete. Be safe out there.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I had to laugh at one analyst's description of today's market: "the fall before the rise of the fall before the fall". LOL....I think he nailed it..

Just looked at the markets...Yen strengthened but is now being schizo, oil is doing well (over $45). AGG is having a bad day. 401k's are having distributions today and hence profit taking and some selling.

FS

 

[Mathion]

Oooh, what's TSP Poker?

Sounds like fun!

 

[FogSailing]

We play once a week. One week we play on Sunday, the next on Monday. There is a thread on it in The Lounge with all the rules, BS, bragging stuff, etc. We use the Poker Stars site to play. There is usually about 8 of us. Lots of fun. Alevin is the leader of the pack and Tom has been kind enough to host it for us. We just started a bit more competitive play although I think all the play to date has been plenty competitive. Nice people and a lot of fun...after all...what could be wrong with swimming with sharks?:laugh::laugh:

Feel free to join us Mathion.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

The strength in the market continues. There is a decent RSI negative divergence for the SPX but my guess is that CB liquidity trumps any technical indicator. The Japanese CB has done a nice job of playing their currency this week and they can devalue it again tomorrow just enough to keep the gravy train going. I think going short right now would be a mistake . That could change in a flash but with volume so low, I think the 1% have things just where they want them. I'm planning to hold until SPX drops below 2130. Best to you in your investing.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I understand the Japanese CB has said no to helicopter money and the EU banks are holding the line for additional stimulus (until Brexit is better understood). That means re-valuing the Yen and probably the Euro. Not good for American markets in the short term. Heading to the sidelines (100% G) until August.

FS

 

[jkenjohnson]

I understand the Japanese CB has said no to helicopter money and the EU banks are holding the line for additional stimulus (until Brexit is better understood). That means re-valuing the Yen and probably the Euro. Not good for American markets in the short term. Heading to the sidelines (100% G) until August.

FS

I agree. But, we both will be wrong and the market will go up. :smile:

 

[FogSailing]

Hi JKJ: IMHO, it's all about the various objectives of the CB's. My theory is that the CB's need to allow some uncertainty in the market to keep it on edge. If they do what everyone expects them to do when they expect them to do it...well makes for a predictable market. I was guessing that the market pulls back next week enough to put some fright into everyone since everyone is so bullish (no idea how it all unfolds...oil goes down...another crisis somewhere????, etc.), then in August the flood gates open to 2200. I'm probably wrong...it's total speculation on my part. PS: I'm usually wrong...maybe I should just set myself up on the Forum as a contrarian indicator. I'll call it the FF (Fogsailing Factor)...

FS

 

[jkenjohnson]

Hi JKJ: IMHO, it's all about the various objectives of the CB's. My theory is that the CB's need to allow some uncertainty in the market to keep it on edge. If they do what everyone expects them to do when they expect them to do it...well makes for a predictable market. I was guessing that the market pulls back next week enough to put some fright into everyone since everyone is so bullish (no idea how it all unfolds...oil goes down...another crisis somewhere????, etc.), then in August the flood gates open to 2200. I'm probably wrong...it's total speculation on my part. PS: I'm usually wrong...maybe I should just set myself up on the Forum as a contrarian indicator...

FS

I'm a better contrarian indicator than you. Just do the opposite of what I do.

 

[FogSailing]

I'm thinking you, Minnow, and I need our own club!!!:laugh:

FS

 

[Cactus]

Ah, so it's time to compare our contrarian indicator systems again? Well, here is my Cactus' Reverse And Profit system as of yesterday:

July 21, 2016
[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]Cactus
[/TD]
[TD]CRAP
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD](5.11%)
[/TD]
[TD]15.43%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

How does your's compare to that? Unfortunately my contrarian system is doing extremely well this year. I never learn. I keep saying it, some of us just aren't cut out to be investors.

 

[Tsunami]

Ah, so it's time to compare our contrarian indicator systems again? Well, here is my Cactus' Reverse And Profit system as of yesterday:

July 21, 2016
[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]Cactus[/TD]
[TD]CRAP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD](5.11%)[/TD]
[TD]15.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

How does your's compare to that? Unfortunately my contrarian system is doing extremely well this year. I never learn. I keep saying it, some of us just aren't cut out to be investors.

I've been in a similar situation for years. I've been working on a seasonality system since 2006, and year after year I watch it beat my own returns....11 straight years in fact since as of the close today I'm only up about 0.5% while my systems are all up double digits YTD. Last fall I finally decided to get serious about fixing my dismal returns and I worked hard to finish it...and in fact ended up with 3 separate systems and finally, as of today's close I'm back in sync with my "Enhanced" and "Bull/Bear" systems at 50%S/50%I and will once again attempt to follow it from now on.