FogSailing's Account Talk

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These last couple of months have been strange to say the least. Doesn't seem to be anything to support the market level that we are at.
 
Attached is a chart of today's SPX action. The SPX graph indicates to me that we are likely trending down a bit for further consolidation. It seems too early in the month for a pullback below 2130 but the BB's are looking very constricted. Something is about to give. Volume looks be to light but normal. As I write the Dollar and Euro were strengthening and oil pulled back a bit but is still above $41. I think Thursday and Friday will tell the tale.

View attachment 39067

FS
 
Looks to me like there is so real strong stock manipulation going on today by the "powers that be". The dollar is rebounding and RUT has gone positive. Hoping the same happens for SPX and it holds through the day. Oil price is making gains so that appears to be where the largest manipulation is occurring. VIX has gone negative again. Crazy day...Just hope to get out of here today in one piece.

FS
 
We are really close to the 2195 resistance level. The powers that be seem to pushing the market up...for example oil spikes 16% even though Russians say output production ceiling is problematic. Makes me wonder when reality will begin to set in. Will be interesting to see if it can break through the 2195-2199 range. If not, I think the market will pull back before heading back up to 2250 area.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
We are really close to the 2195 resistance level. The powers that be seem to pushing the market up...for example oil spikes 16% even though Russians say output production ceiling is problematic. Makes me wonder when reality will begin to set in. Will be interesting to see if it can break through the 2195-2199 range. If not, I think the market will pull back before heading back up to 2250 area.

FS
Click to expand...

I really hope you're right about a pull back, the melt up is getting bothersome; getting that capitulation feeling again... :-/
 
Well, SPX hasn't exceeded 2195 as of yet. Still hoping for a bit of a pullback.

Some sites I'm reading are talking about the breadth indicators softening because the big money has been moving out of equities.

Who knows, perhaps tomorrow is Turnaround Tuesday..:D

FS
 
Here are a few graphs posted by Market Timing Update: Market Timing Update (8/15/16) that provide some interesting information on SPX. The first identifies the gaps that are currently open and the second indicates that we have just completed (or are about to complete) wave c of 5 and will now begin a retrace in wave d before heading to 2250.

The wave stuff is just theory and I've learned you have to be very careful about reading much into it because there are more than a handful of interpretations about which count is closest to right. Waves tend to subdivide and go where they will, which is usually not where it seems like they are going,.... so you have to careful in reading too much into it. But, today this count seemed to be more right to me than others I've seen today.

View attachment 39131View attachment 39132
 
Here's a chart that shows the incredible journey of the SPX. The power of the central banks to print and spend is beyond description. That said, the SPX hit 2180 this morning. If it breaks below 2177 I think we see a journey to 2160. The dollar (and the Euro) were also continuing to pullback this am, but the Fed has sent out their spokesperson (Dudley and Lockhardt) this am to start talking up rate hikes to slow that down. We'll see if it is effective. In my mind, not so much. We're getting used to their BS. I simply don't expect any kind of rate hike until after the election because of course (it's data dependent...what hogwash). I could be wrong but my guess is that the only thing that could cause such an action would be some kind of meltdown in the dollar. There are many things that can move this market but the main question on my mind is oil- is there a production freeze or not? Best to you in your investing.

View attachment 39145

FS
 
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Well, loving the market action this week. Oil has been on a tear...but my guess is that profit taking starts no later than Friday. Plus of course, tomorrow our illustrious Fed will work to scare us into "rate hike hysteria". That should make things interesting.

I have come up with a new theory for the next few weeks anyway. Always love dreaming this stuff up. The dollar continues to be devalued and the Yen is continuing to strengthen. Anything that dries up liquidity isn't good for the market. So the market will need to create liquidity. My guess is that "they or them" (as opposed to "us") run the market down to 2130. That should bring those sleepy bears out of hibernation. As soon as they get all excited and short the market, I expect the CB's to step in and prop the market back up again and wah-llah...instant liquidity...and onward we go to 2200 and beyond; at least upward through the election. Just a theory...that and 2 bucks will get you a cup of coffee..:D:D:D

All the best to you in your investing.

FS
 
Well..it's still early but I'm thinking my oil theory is already shot. Several blogs I read have it going to as high as $64 because the he pattern indicates a head and shoulders and the head is just forming. We'll see. The EIA report is out today and should move it to the appropriate place I hope. Also, look at the currency manipulation overnight. Dollar and Euro both gained.

Today the Fed does it's Fedspeak but I don't believe a word they say anymore....blah blah blah...no rate hike till December... but it will be enough to shore up the US Dollar for a day or two. Could be that the rocket ship has already retracted enough for a shot to 2200...or it's a bull trap...crazy market...there are still gaps at 2160 and 2130...

Volume is really low which is the opposite of what I would expect if volatility were an issue...tough market to read....The one thing that I do sense is that a big move is near...

To heck with all of it, I'm going to play golf...:D:D:D

FS
 
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Yep to almost all you said. I am looking at the 2160 gap to get filled soon...maybe today. If it gets filled and we rebound then 2200 will come quick. If not then I don't think the 2130 gap will do much to stop the downward trend.
 
I'm reading that we have a lot of "dumb" foreign money making its way into the our markets, hence the up. One of the bloggers I read put it this was based on SPX hourly: " It looks like the uptrend is only going on “fumes”. The party’s over, but the guests refuse to leave and “drinks” are still being served, though everyone’s past his/her limit. I see here only “downtrend”; still all indicators are bouncing off “overbought”.

I guess as long as money flows in, all is well....

FS
 
FogSailing said:
I'm reading that we have a lot of "dumb" foreign money making its way into the our markets, hence the up. One of the bloggers I read put it this was based on SPX hourly: " It looks like the uptrend is only going on “fumes”. The party’s over, but the guests refuse to leave and “drinks” are still being served, though everyone’s past his/her limit. I see here only “downtrend”; still all indicators are bouncing off “overbought”.

I guess as long as money flows in, all is well....

FS
Click to expand...

"Relax," said the night man, "We are programmed to receive
You can checkout any time you like, but you can never leave!"
 
FogSailing said:
I'm reading that we have a lot of "dumb" foreign money making its way into the our markets, hence the up. One of the bloggers I read put it this was based on SPX hourly: " It looks like the uptrend is only going on “fumes”. The party’s over, but the guests refuse to leave and “drinks” are still being served, though everyone’s past his/her limit. I see here only “downtrend”; still all indicators are bouncing off “overbought”.

I guess as long as money flows in, all is well....

FS
Click to expand...


So does that mean our smart money is headed into emerging markets? I have seen several major investment companies running commercials for their emerging fund accounts.
 
A bit surprised to see AGG go red today. Makes me wonder who is selling their bonds, or who quit buying bonds, or when did rates increase? I'll be happy to see bonds and stocks disentangled. Not surprised at equities pullback this am. Hope it pulls back to 2130 but many analysts are saying 2152. And what about that malarkey drummed up by OPEC regarding production cuts...or "How bout them O's"....:D:D:D Best to you in your investing.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
A bit surprised to see AGG go red today. Makes me wonder who is selling their bonds, or who quit buying bonds, or when did rates increase? I'll be happy to see bonds and stocks disentangled. Not surprised at equities pullback this am. Hope it pulls back to 2130 but many analysts are saying 2152. And what about that malarkey drummed up by OPEC regarding production cuts...or "How bout them O's"....:D:D:D Best to you in your investing.

FS
Click to expand...

Hey FS!

Can't know for certain if there is cause and effect, but NBR(CNBC) spoke yesterday about how bonds are in a bubble...if I recall correctly.
 
Thanks Q! I missed that article yesterday...I did read that many of the billionaires (Icahn, Soros, etc. are talking bearish) but missed the bonds article. I was too involved watching the ISS live feed...absolutely mesmerizing. :D:D:D

FS
 
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