FogSailing's Account Talk

[userque]

Thanks Q! I missed that article yesterday...I did read that many of the billionaires (Icahn, Soros, etc. are talking bearish) but missed the bonds article. I was too involved watching the ISS live feed...absolutely mesmerizing.

FS

Can't blame ya. But I saw it on tv...but I was probably half sleep so...there's that.

 

[FogSailing]

Copied this graphic of SPX from amateur investors. The problem with Elliott Wave is that the waves can subdivide and move in unexpected directions (who knew..:laugh. So the question is does SPX subdivide in wave 3 and move up and break above 2194 or does it pull back in wave 4 correction. Logic would probably dictate that it could pull back to approximately 2150 area but not likely less 2100 because of support. But who knows... There is a lot of political unrest\volatility news on the world front...Russian makes plans with Yemen, child bomber (probably ISIS) in Turkey, problems in China economy, oil inventories still high, etc. that could put a damper on the markets for a day or two. On the other hand, all the CBs will meet next week in Jackson Hole and we all know that they can spin the market to wherever they want it. Time to Buckle Up!

View attachment 39197

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I hope you are following the action this morning. Best Buy earnings up 15% and new Home Sales beat expectations. Hard to believe....real news! BUT.....and it is still early in the day....SPX has not broken over 2194 yet. Until it does, this could still be a head fake IMHO. In the backstage area, oil is down and the dollar continues to fall, and Treasuries are down. Be careful out there..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well we knew something was about to break. If today's actions breaks above 2194 (and I think it will), I think 2202 is on deck. Makes me wish I was in stocks today, but I'm pretty sure I won't think that by next Tuesday..

FS

 

[weatherweenie]

Was the pop a headfake, or is this drop a headfake? Place your bets!

Well we knew something was about to break. If today's actions breaks above 2194 (and I think it will), I think 2202 is on deck. Makes me wish I was in stocks today, but I'm pretty sure I won't think that by next Tuesday..

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Wow. leave it to the Fed to "make my day" then "screw it up"...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Friday was a drop based on Fischer's comments, Monday was a pop (dead cat bounce?), and today seems to be a "stay in the range day"; albeit slightly down. Oil is down but the dollar is strengthening and we are due some kind of action. The market has not made any serious "upside" or "downside" move for quite a while. I read that tomorrow and Sept 1st are days when the 401k's buy so it is reasonable to expect an uptick Wednesday and Thursday. Friday we get job numbers. If we get "good" numbers, that could spell problems because the market may read "rate" hike or hikes into that. Bad news could propel the markets for Friday but I would think the negative consequences would begin the following week to rebalance the market. Many of the analysts think we tick up to 2200-2250 before we head down. I'm not so sure heading into September. But something has to give because we have built such a genuine but "wall of worry". So, it may well be that we head up before we correct. Maybe the Apple tax issue sends a deep scare into the markets. Just one word for where I am on this: Dazed and Confused. Best to you in your investing.

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Hope you are right FS. I just moved 30% off the lily pad, so we will see...:nuts:

 

[FogSailing]

Raven: Please be careful. I was not pushing "I think we are going up". I am simply saying that I am very confused about where the market is heading. But if you're in, I hope the market goes positive at least a few days.

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Definitely being careful. Hoping to take advantage of an uptick the first few days of September. This is only a short term and very conservative play with only 30% invested. Plan is to stay in for a week and then probably do a 50/50 split of the G and F Fund.

Nope, the pullback is coming, I'm just hoping it is later in September.

Good luck with your investments!!!

 

[ravensfan]

Raven: Please be careful. I was not pushing "I think we are going up". I am simply saying that I am very confused about where the market is heading. But if you're in, I hope the market goes positive at least a few days.

FS

Well FS it looks like I got back in one day to soon and will take a hit today. Darn oil prices got me again. Hopefully I'll make it up with some nice numbers from the jobs report on Friday lol. I actually thought about buying a little more today, but hey I'm supposed to be cautious...Anyway as IT Mike says, "It's not where a trade starts, but where it ends that counts".

Good luck with your investments...

 

[FogSailing]

Big decision to make...if I go in today...how much risk do I want to take on...Here are the options as I see them...

1. Dollar continues to fall...there is a gap at $XJY at about 95.5 that looks to be filled today. If that lends support, the dollar should rally. Chance 70%.
2. Oil has broken under $45.20. That is bearish. What event turns that around? Chance: 50/50
3. Jobs tomorrow. If they don't meet expectations consider an up event as the probability of a September rate increase decreases...just a cat bounce though. Chance: 70% based on history. However, if jobs come in above expectations, the dollar strengthens which is good for SPX generally, even though the chance of a rate increases strengthens. Chance: 30% based on history.

The problem is that 1 and 3 seem to play against each other and I think jobs is the stronger of the two; so I guess I'll take a chance and go 35% into equities tomorrow. I still think the risk is HIGH that everyone has gone long for the weekend. I wish I knew what the smart money was doing.

All the best to you in your investing.

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Hoping you get in, even a little bit FS. If the ship goes down, I'm in good company!

 

[ravensfan]

So what did you decide to do, take on a little risk or stand pat? Inquiring minds want to know...:nuts:

 

[FogSailing]

Went in 40% S Raven. Wanted to jump in 100% but I am a conservative guy. Let's hope we make some money the next few days. All the best.

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Glad to hear it. Gotta be nimble on your feet though. September is a tricky month, but there are profits to be made if we time it just right.

Good luck!!!

 

[FogSailing]

Like everyone; I'm expecting some type of correction. I thought it was going to happen last February. But...Not so much. However, I just read something that appears credible enough and could be a possible trend indicator. The posting was at: Stock Market Analysis for the Nasdaq

I know that the experts out there probably have many-many of these types of indicators, but I don't recall seeing this one before and thought I'd share.

I read an article that said Sentiment Indicators expect more sideways grinding for the next week or so. It discussed that employment seems to be the key market driver right now but from my perspective the dollar seems to be falling and that isn't good for SPX.

Best of luck to you in your investing.

FS

 

[Khotso]

Yikes! Hope it waits a day or two .... I'm in S ... and that definitely sounds legitimately foreboding. Thanks -- or maybe not -- for sharing.

 

[Tsunami]

I'm with you FS. The market has been unable to make further gains so I suspect "the boys" will take it down a notch soon. They were probably positioning for that today. I made my exit to the F fund today.

On another front, this guy has been making me some money lately, his public updates are all I need...got me a vault full of NUGT last week and am happy.
04092016

 

[FogSailing]

That's super TS! Glad you are making some bucks in the market! I expect I'll be hearing about a retirement date for you in the not too distant future. Best of luck!

FS