FogSailing
Well-known member
Some trivia...found this interesting...
Recession and Elections
I recently noted that since 1910, the US economy is either in recession or enters a recession within twelve months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new President.
No recession without an election
I then spent some time looking at US recessions in general, and found that every single one occurred during, or just after, an election, without exception.
Not every single election sees a recession, only every two-term incumbent change. Some two-term Presidents saw recessions at their first-term re-elections too (Wilson and Eisenhower).
–Raoul Pal(My understanding is he is a smart investor and very knowledgeable of USD).
Also read this am that SPX is about to hit resistance and to expect a pullback of up to 40 points. Here's a bit of the info I picked up:
Today I show negative divergences on SPX Daily, SPX Hourly, Breadth, HYG:IEF. Also shown were positive divergences on the $VIX. This all tells me a turn lower on the SPX is coming, risk off.
The one saving grace is that my proprietary Technicals Model actually made a new high today. It usually gives advanced notice of turns, especially when something big is coming. So my conclusion is this, expect a turn lower, it may spook the market a bit. But I continue to hold a LONG position which is consistent with my Technicals Model and signals. I also want to point out that the cumulative Technicals Model is back (slightly) above its 200 dma, something we will continue to watch closely.
Finally, as I was looking at my SPX hourly chart, I said to myself that if I were the market, no matter if a bull or bear run is ahead for us, that I would like the tag the bottom extension of the triangle we watched in September which broke down in early October. That line is the yellow line on the SPX hourly chart, which as of today sits at 2112.
And just one more piece of info:
We think it’s likely that a rising USD is going to be the cause (of a possible recession) and will create difficulties as it rises further in value in the months ahead. I don’t think the USD is rising because of the small rate rise that is likely to occur in Dec. I think it’s rising (in no particular order) because of the election of El Donald whose policies are seen as USD bullish (far more than HRC’s were), the upcoming events in Europe (Italian referendum and serious issues with specific Italian and German banks which haven’t gone away and had simply been put on ice) and Japan, Europe and China’s desire to all weaken their currencies to stimulate their economies. The small US rate rise is just the icing on the cake that the news media (CNBC) talks about.
Best of luck to you in your investing.
FS
Recession and Elections
I recently noted that since 1910, the US economy is either in recession or enters a recession within twelve months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new President.
No recession without an election
I then spent some time looking at US recessions in general, and found that every single one occurred during, or just after, an election, without exception.
Not every single election sees a recession, only every two-term incumbent change. Some two-term Presidents saw recessions at their first-term re-elections too (Wilson and Eisenhower).
–Raoul Pal(My understanding is he is a smart investor and very knowledgeable of USD).
Also read this am that SPX is about to hit resistance and to expect a pullback of up to 40 points. Here's a bit of the info I picked up:
Today I show negative divergences on SPX Daily, SPX Hourly, Breadth, HYG:IEF. Also shown were positive divergences on the $VIX. This all tells me a turn lower on the SPX is coming, risk off.
The one saving grace is that my proprietary Technicals Model actually made a new high today. It usually gives advanced notice of turns, especially when something big is coming. So my conclusion is this, expect a turn lower, it may spook the market a bit. But I continue to hold a LONG position which is consistent with my Technicals Model and signals. I also want to point out that the cumulative Technicals Model is back (slightly) above its 200 dma, something we will continue to watch closely.
Finally, as I was looking at my SPX hourly chart, I said to myself that if I were the market, no matter if a bull or bear run is ahead for us, that I would like the tag the bottom extension of the triangle we watched in September which broke down in early October. That line is the yellow line on the SPX hourly chart, which as of today sits at 2112.
And just one more piece of info:
We think it’s likely that a rising USD is going to be the cause (of a possible recession) and will create difficulties as it rises further in value in the months ahead. I don’t think the USD is rising because of the small rate rise that is likely to occur in Dec. I think it’s rising (in no particular order) because of the election of El Donald whose policies are seen as USD bullish (far more than HRC’s were), the upcoming events in Europe (Italian referendum and serious issues with specific Italian and German banks which haven’t gone away and had simply been put on ice) and Japan, Europe and China’s desire to all weaken their currencies to stimulate their economies. The small US rate rise is just the icing on the cake that the news media (CNBC) talks about.
Best of luck to you in your investing.
FS
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They certainly don't make it easy on us, do they?
