FogSailing's Account Talk

[evilanne]

What is our recourse if an IFT for Thursday does not go through until Friday? Can we check Friday morning and cancel the IFT if it in fact did not go through?

Yes, you can change it before 12:00 EST

 

[FogSailing]

TSP said they are looking into it. Will get back to me. With a lot happening this week, I need to figure out what horse I want to ride (equities, bond, or G fund).

Some Things I'm Thinking About:
I hate to chase the market..
I expect the Fed to raise rates. That should increase yields making F look good for a day or 2.
I also expect the dollar to fall a bit which is generally good for the stock market; especially energy companies but: Oil is in a downtrend and is expected to hit support at $45. Maybe something happens in the mid-east to scare prices up...certainly wouldn't surprise me.
My understanding is that this is Options Expiration week which is generally bullish.
The big kahuna would seem to be the Debt Ceiling. Will there be much controversy about raising it?

I'm starting to think tomorrow could be a nice day up followed by a pullback or consolidation in the stock market on Wednesday and maybe Thursday. But I don't think the market will be too concerned at a .5% rate hike so we should have a resumption of the uptrend quickly IF the debt ceiling issue is worked out and oil prices don't take a dive. So I'm thinking maybe going to F for Wednesday and Thursday and then move to equities for the remainder of March. No idea if that makes any real sense but I'm not a bot so I get what I get...

Also, I don't expect TSP to fix any error in my IFT. Just expect to move on and hope to regain it later. Will still post whatever they come back with...

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi, I am in process of revising some aspects of my strategy, and hope to get it fine tuned in next couple weeks. But in doing this, I have been thinking a lot about long term, versus middle and short term trading.

I came to conclusion I can't stand to stay in long term. But at same time, short term plays are tough to time especially with limited IFTs. So started thinking, if I miss an exit maybe just ride it down and wait to go above entry point, recognizinng the exit was missed and also consider that we are in overall bull market, so increase confidence that trade will eventually turn positive.

Its just hard to see the dip and have nothing to buyin with due to full investment at 100%. So this last time, i only entered st 80% to give myself a chance to alleviate exit errors while I work out strategy details. I mean really when you look at it, a missed exit only means you miss opportunity of making money when dip happens since you cant enter and lost opportunity as it goes up until it gets to your entry point. Still a had pill to swallow.

Hummm... the quick in and out definitely can work. Wanted to exit today, but decided even if this is heading to a double bottom I'll stay in and invest last 20% at that point....maybe this week. So your thought to exit and re-enter makes sense!

Best wishes to you and everyone on investments!!!!!!!!!

 

[FogSailing]

DBA. You're an inspiration. By the way, you're starting to think like Birchtree..

FS

 

[nasa1974]

DBA. You're an inspiration. By the way, you're starting to think like Birchtree..

FS

I miss BT.

 

[FogSailing]

Finally got a response from TSP. They said it must be a glitch on my end; that all their systems are a go. I sent back a kind note to them that two items were necessary to review to assure a functioning system (1) the IFT itself (I'm not above making a mistake) and (2) the 1st email I sent to them last Saturday. They say they don't have either. I can understand one glitch... but two...within days of each other..asked them to make sure they have it right.

At any rate...I'm on to the today...the past is the past...Time for Yellin to start yellin....

FS

 

[Cactus]

Yeah, right. I have to hand it to you, FS. You are certainly more civil than I could be in that circumstance. I'm feeling severely ripped-off right now and this happened to you not me. I can live with my mistakes but not theirs.

They say their system is go. Does it still show you have a pending IFT that never gets executed? I'm wondering if they just blew it away. :suspicious:

I have to say this one incident has me reconsidering my decision to leave my money in the TSP when I retire.

 

[Tsunami]

Yeah, right. I have to hand it to you, FS. You are certainly more civil than I could be in that circumstance. I'm feeling severely ripped-off right now and this happened to you not me. I can live with my mistakes but not theirs.

They say their system is go. Does it still show you have a pending IFT that never gets executed? I'm wondering if they just blew it away. :suspicious:

I have to say this one incident has me reconsidering my decision to leave my money in the TSP when I retire.

Good point Cactus. I've never had an IFT issue after 100's of IFTs over the years, but all it takes is one indiscretion and you lose trust. Maybe one lesson learned from this is now I'll always make my pre-planned IFTs the evening before, and not wait for the following morning.

Glad to see that the nervous nellies are done selling and the market is back to the bull trend. I don't expect this rally to get beyond the 2420s though, then comes a scarier drop of 5% or so...if the Elliott wave gurus are right anyway. Who knows.

 

[FogSailing]

My quick look at this coming week worries that SPX may dip to the 2353 support and possibly down to 2336. Oil looks set to rally off the 200 DMA but I think the smart money will be selling that rally because oil isn't done pulling back. The question I'm kicking around is what is going to happen with the bond market. The graph below indicates the 30 year has bottomed so bonds prices look ready to rally. If that happens: then bonds and stocks would be moving in separate directions until they aren't. More importantly to me is the probability that if bond prices rise yields would go down. So questioning whether it's smarter to stay where I am or jump to G for a bit. SPX has a Fib upside of 2428 but it looks like consolidation is needed before it heads there..





FS

 

[FogSailing]

A few charts from folks I like to keep abreast of: (a) TRANS double top pattern (potential) and (b) SPX (possible pullback to 50 DMA)





FS

 

[ravensfan]

Thanks for the info FS. This just re-affirms my decision to exit the market last Friday. I'm beginning to understand that conserving capital is just as important as increasing it...:1244:

 

[Cactus]

True. Unfortunately some of us can't do either.

 

[ravensfan]

Well it looks like we cut through that 2353 support like a hot knife through butter...next up, 2336, then look out below. Get the popcorn ready. This could be painful...opcorn:

 

[FogSailing]

My question for the day: SPX appears to be advancing off of 2339. Brexit is coming up while we are focused on the Health Bill. Several analysts are saying that there will be a short squeeze when oil hits $50, but as of this morning there is 5M surplus in inventories...Will large caps advance? Inquiring minds want to know...at this point I think we may still be in consolidation mode.

Here are a few SPX charts for reference purposes:





FS

 

[Whipsaw]

One of the market analysis videos pointed out that unless there is a healthy bounce, there is likely more downside, hence my move to the F-train. Another comment was with a big move like yesterday, the market will often take a breather... would that push a bounce to the following day? Not thinking so... thoughts?

 

[FogSailing]

I tend to agree WS. Yesterdays TRIN was high which indicates markets up in the morning and shorting in the afternoon. Also, the Dollar/Yen relationship appears about to crossover which will limit liquidity (YEN up\Dollar down). Not there quite yet but close. Expect further consolidation when that happens.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Health bill tomorrow...Brexit on Friday I think and economic news tomorrow....Guessing that we still see more consolidation tomorrow.. possible 2324. No reason to be long equities while we are below 2353. See chart of gaps below. If SPX breaks 2333, it could be a slippery slope for a while. Also DOW and RUT are headed toward 200DMA..we seem to be in pullback mode. SPX and other indices will likely follow. I did not check TRAN today. Here are a few charts for consideration:





FS

 

[FogSailing]

House Speaker Paul Ryan pushed back his 11:30 a.m. Eastern news conference to 3:30 p.m., a sign that Republicans are still searching for votes on their health-care bill. House leaders have been planning to vote on the American Health Care Act Thursday but reports have said they are short of votes. President Donald Trump is meeting with conservative members Thursday morning to drum up support. If the equity markets are GREEN this afternoon, be very careful. If the bill looks like it won't pass, I expect a lot of shorting in the final hour of business today..Just thinking out loud....Here's a graph from analyst BalanceTrading..



FS

 

[FogSailing]

Markets analysts are saying it could be a rough ride today. Of note is the graph below that denotes that the 50 and 100 EMA are almost crossing on the JPY/USD which reduces market liquidity. I guess the healthcare bill gets voted on today. If it passes expect a rally, if not a pullback. Here are a few charts to share:





FS

 

[Whipsaw]

Who's thinking the bill passes? But for the vote, it looks like it should head further south...