FogSailing's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

Markets analysts are saying it could be a rough ride today. Of note is the graph below that denotes that the 50 and 100 EMA are almost crossing on the JPY/USD which reduces market liquidity. I guess the healthcare bill gets voted on today. If it passes expect a rally, if not a pullback. Here are a few charts to share:

FS

FS,

It's been a rough ride all month. Just hope I can finish the month in positive territory. Or at least closer to zero.:worried:

 

[FogSailing]

Stand by for heavy rolls today as we used to say in the Coast Guard...Here's a few charts on SPX by analysts I follow:





FS

 

[ravensfan]

Thanks for the charts FS. I'm trying to decide if today is a buying opportunity for a short term play, so these charts are most helpful.

 

[FogSailing]

Raven: Had been expecting SPX to close around 2315 today to fill an open gap. Currently it appears to have bounced on the pivot at 2322 and is riding a wave up. So no idea how the afternoon will play out. Question is with debt ceiling issue hanging and Congress not addressing it, are more dark clouds are on the horizon?

I'm in the wait and hold pattern until I see SPX at 2360 or over.

SPY Open Gaps
Feb-13-2017 231.77 to 232.05 up
Feb-09-2017 229.39 to 229.52 up
Feb-06-2017 228.1 to 228.54 up
Dec-05-2016 220.25 to 220.42 up
Nov-07-2016 209.89 to 211.3 down

FS

 

[Tsunami]

2363 today, and the seasonally strong month of April is near....

Go Zags!

 

[FogSailing]

2363 today, and the seasonally strong month of April is near....

Go Zags!

Hi TS:

How Bout Them Zags!!!! Looking forward to Final Four this weekend!

Should be a good matchup. SC has been playing well but I hope the Zags show up and plays a great game.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Zags Play For the National Championship! They have played so very well at the Big dance this year!

Here's a chart of the national debt, as compared to tax revenues and areas of spending. Wish this Congress would get serious about dealing with this debt issue.



FS

 

[FogSailing]

SO PROUD OF MY ZAGS. THEY DIDN'T WIN BUT THEY PLAYED A VALIANT GAME. I AM SO PROUD OF THEM!!!

Here's one I found at Kimble Charts today. If the market was hot, with lots of momentum and breadth, I say RUT would break resistance. But, that is not necessarily where the market is right now. Be careful out there.



FS

 

[FogSailing]

OK, Fib pivots indicate we have resistance at 2385, 2401, and 2425. We also know we are due a correction. I'm hoping we end the day just under between 2380 and 2384 with lots of momentum and breadth. Oil seems to be on the short squeeze to at least 52 but the Yen is appreciating and I expect bonds yields to be headed down soon. Hopefully today's rally carries through tomorrow. SPX chart from analyst I follow:



FS

 

[FogSailing]

My hope is SPX stays above support at 2339 tomorrow. If not, I expect a fast ride down to 2285...

SPX needs to get back over 2372 to have new highs back in play.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Still in NO MAN's LAND. That range now appears to be 2344 - 2361. Above 2361 and the market goes higher, under 2344 we drop.



FS

 

[ravensfan]

This one is a tough call FS. If I stay in and we go down, boo hiss. If I get out and it goes up, again boo hiss. And of course, all the strength in the market is in the first half of the month... Oh well, roll the dice and see what happens...:worried:

 

[FogSailing]

Looking towards Monday. We ended the week in NO MAN's LAND. The pattern is lower highs and lower lows which is indicative of a downtrend. The EW guys see two near term possibilities (1) We are in microwave 5 which if it ends at 2350 or the 50 MA, puts on on an upward path OR (2) Intermediate Wave 3 ended at the market high of 2401 which occurred on March 1st and we are in a downtrend wave 4 currently. If we drop below 2336, this will confirm that we are in wave 4. In this case support is at 2336, 2321, 2286, 2270 and 2234. Obviously anything below 2321 begins a significant downtrend. Hoping for scenario 1 but concerned that we may be in scenario 2. Monday will provide clarification. Here's an SPX chart from balancetrading:



FS

 

[FogSailing]

Certainly not an expert in climbing the Wall of Worry. My thoughts for tomorrow: Oil hasn't reach $53.50 yet. There should continue a short squeeze to get it there. Hopefully that won't be first thing tomorrow morning but later in the afternoon tomorrow. The dollar continues to pullback. However, I hope that it will rally to at least 101.5 through tomorrow. Maybe the Fed can do something to help us out here. The Yen is silently and quietly moving up (50 Day is 88.73 and 100 day is 88). It is currently 90.11. Once it hits 91 I expect a jolt in the force. Had expected SPX to tear up to 2401 but not so much right now. If it hits close to 2385; my guess is that's about it before we see a pullback. Lower highs and lower lows seems to be mantra of the day.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Well, Oil hit 53.17 overnight so we'll have to see whether it moves up ...or down. With Tillerson in Russia, this should prove interesting. United's stock will be down today..Taxes are pushed off, no healthcare bill...war drums beating...Yellin's yellin didn't prop up the dollar and the Yen continues to appreciate...something tells me it's about time to get out of dodge....Of course, if earnings somehow are stellar things could change quickly.....Oh the Wall of Worry...Here's an SPX chart...



FS

 

[FogSailing]

Crapola...SPX just pierced 2339. Looks like 2300 just became the new trading channel...of course, the VIX has just entered buy territory so we'll see how the afternoon goes.... but this could get bloody. Probably a move by THOSE THAT CONTROL to push all the BUY THE DIP bulls out of the market and then run the bears when they step in...

FS

 

[sgtbriangreen]

Both C and S fund punched below the 50 EMA and now that seems like it is acting as resistance. Time to bail to the F?

 

[FogSailing]

I often jump out too early..sticky pants deployed...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Consolidation continues. Oil is up, Gold is up, the dollar is down, and VIX is on a sell. However, for Gold to move up further the Yen has to appreciate more. We seem to be range bound in a DT. I was hoping we would bust above 1200 on RUT but don't expect that to happen today. Instead I think the markets are building momentum but taking us down first. Probably won't see a breakout this week. Hopefully next week. Here's a chart of RUT from last night.



FS

 

[kb9nvh]

I often drop out too late.... "Stinky" Pants Deployed ;-)

I often jump out too early..sticky pants deployed...

FS