FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

I agree DBA! Don't know if it has started today, or today is a consolidation day before oil soars and the Dow breaks 20000. I'm riding on greed being a better motivator so staying in for this week. Hope I guess right.

From what I've read, with Trump's victory we are moving from an interest rate based market to an earnings based market. I was hoping that Mom and Pop might actually get some love here but from what I'm reading I now interpret the change as all the free Fed money has dried up so the big corporations will now suck up their freebies from the 15% proposed corporate tax rate to buy back shares (basically the tax cut allows them to buy up their debt).....sheesh...the little guy just can't win...

One day Mom and Pop need to wake up and truly drain the swamp...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Looking to tomorrow...Fib pivot is 2248 so we either bounce and GO POSITIVE (my personal choice) or we look to Fib support at SPX: 2243, 2233 and 2221.

I'd like to see 2016 end on a positive note. Right now futures are at 2244 so it's touch and go for tomorrow, just the way Mr. Market likes it. I read that hedge funds were rebalancing today so I still have hopes for a good day tomorrow.

Best of Luck All!

FS

 

[Tsunami]

Today looked like 5 waves down, so there should be a 3-wave rally over the next day or two of at least 38% of the pullback. Let's see, the 2260-62 area looks like a likely rebound target:
Above the Green Line - Dec 28, 2016 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

After that who know. There's so much talk on CNBC about the market nosediving right after the calendar turns that it seems unlikely that it will amount to much if there is more of a pullback. My system says to get out of stocks to begin 2017 though. So we'll see how that works out.

 

[FogSailing]

Yes...Fear has been introduced back into the market....no Euphoria here today....probably a super head fake from the big boys but maybe not...

Hearing talk from an analyst (Doug Kass) calling for a sell off tomorrow. TLT is up 3 days in a row

Trying to figure out "SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO"...

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Decided to hold thru tomorrow...I know "insanity"...every bone in body is saying get out...

All that said, I believe in bear market rallies. When you smell the fear, one of 2 things usually happens...a big up or big down...We'll see how she goes tomorrow...

FS

 

[Tsunami]

Hearing talk from an analyst (Doug Kass) calling for a sell off tomorrow....

FS

Oh no, I've never ever seen Kass make a correct call, so I probably made a mistake bailing out today.

 

[FogSailing]

TS: That's the nicest thing anyone has said to me today...Hope we RIP and ROAR tomorrow..in a most POSITIVE WAY.. The only ink in the ointment is that we didn't end closer to 2255...

Fingers crossed....

FS

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Im literally at my wits end! Been off all year. I keep telling myself what happened in Jan 2016 doesnt need to repeat, but who knows. I'll be slightly negative for the year..i ....think. Will see....ugghhhhh...still in for now!

 

[nasa1974]

Im literally at my wits end! Been off all year. I keep telling myself what happened in Jan 2016 doesnt need to repeat, but who knows. I'll be slightly negative for the year..i ....think. Will see....ugghhhhh...still in for now!

The beginning of 2016 kicked my butt though February. Fell into the rabbit hole to a -15% but kept it S fund and I'm just over 15% for the year, I think.

Tomorrow should be a short day. Let's hope for a positive end to the year.

Can't even guess what will happen starting 2017.

 

[RazorCat]

A :beerchug: to those of us still hanging in there. I need some coin.

 

[FogSailing]

Happy New Year to all of you. I hope we all have a prosperous and successful 2017!

FS

 

[userque]

Happy New Year to all of you. I hope we all have a prosperous and successful 2017!

FS

You too FS...be safe!

 

[FogSailing]

It's been a while since I last posted. What a ride so far. My thanks to Bquat for all his fine chart work and Mr. Ross, Clester, Tsunami, Cactus, DBA, Burro and others for their shared commentary and thoughts. Looking at the S Fund today, it seems to still be lagging the SPX and Nasdaq. Here's a chart of today's action...Please note that we started the day with 3 White Soldiers indicating a possible high and a turnaround..



Stochastic seems embedded at 92, MACD positive at .26 with upward sloping curve, RSI is slightly overbought at 71.71 but the surprise is that the AROON indicator went positive. Note that this is only a daily shot and market manipulation is possible but it could also be that the market like what the President was saying today. Anyways, best of luck to you in your investing.

 

[FogSailing]

OK: Here's the way things look....2400 Thursday and 2500 Thursday next week then 10 points pullback...

Actually, here's the McClellan showing us the gangbusters trend we're in...



Here's the SPX today:



A little bit of a pullback at the end of the day. It ducked a bit under the 18EMA which is why the Aroon Index took a dive to negative territory but other indicators look ok (Sto 42.44, RSI 67.89, and MACD positive). The SPX is showing a slight negative divergence. My guess is that we either topped today or will around 2410. Either way, with a 4 month run exceeding 15% I think, we're due a bit of a pullback soon. Good luck out there.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Looks like we may see a bit of a pullback. Here are the charts from today for SPX and DWCPF:







For SPX: MACD's seem to be in decline, Stoch seems to be headed below 50, AROON is showing a weakening in momentum, and the RSI is crossing over to the negative side. But who knows, the SPX chart indicates a potential pivot point at 2368, so if it bounces there we have a new scenario. There are gaps above and below so it's most likely headed to one or the other in short order.

Here are a few other charts I found today that I thought were interesting.





FS

 

[FogSailing]

Looks like we've had a 34 point pullback in SPX as well as a large pullback in DWCPF. I haven't even looked at the data for I or Bonds but they've also been in a downtrend. Here are graphs for SPX and DWCPF:





Looks like DWCPF is about to hit the 50 day. Will it bounce or breakthrough...SPX needs to either bounce at the 2361 pivot or it probably falls to 2351 resistance. Momentum has been slowing. The Healthcare bill would seem to be a reason for the market to rally but all the negative discussion and lack of consensus seems to be having a tepid effect. Bonds still seem concerned about a potential rate hike but there is probably some other crisis looming under the surface...home mortgages perhaps....Hopefully we see an equities bounce tomorrow..but perhaps not...Inquiring minds want to know.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Just an FYI. I submitted an IFT at TSP.gov on Thursday. I wasn't paying any attention until last night when I logged in and noticed that they had not processed my IFT. Still sitting where I was on Wednesday. I left them an email and asked them to explain but doubt I'll hear anything back from them. In any case, just wanted all of you to make sure to didn't have a similar snafu..Now have to decide what to do..

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Just an FYI. I submitted an IFT at TSP.gov on Thursday. I wasn't paying any attention until last night when I logged in and noticed that they had not processed my IFT. Still sitting where I was on Wednesday. I left them an email and asked them to explain but doubt I'll hear anything back from them. In any case, just wanted all of you to make sure to didn't have a similar snafu..Now have to decide what to do..

FS

FS

If I remember correctly, Thursday was the day posting of prices was delayed. I think it did not happen until about 2:00 am Friday morning. Of course this does not help your situation, but apparently something was going on that delayed pricing (usually occurs around 7:30 Eastern time) and now it appears processing of IFT's was delayed as well. That will probably upset a lot of folks because Friday was an up day. If they do respond, I would love to hear what happened.

Raven Out!

 

[Cactus]

I always wondered about that because of the wording that says IFTs submitted by noon eastern are usually processed at the end of that day. Well, that means it may not be. Looks like that is what happened to you. You're entry on the AT here would also be out of sync now.

What is our recourse if an IFT for Thursday does not go through until Friday? Can we check Friday morning and cancel the IFT if it in fact did not go through? I mean TSP has the legal recourse with that wording to game our IFTs against us if they choose. I know, I'm being paranoid but to quote Richard Nixon: "Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they are not out to get you."

 

[FogSailing]

I'll post whatever response I get from them. Unfortunately I'm missing out on gains because of what has occurred. Today I need to make decision on whether to stay in the wrong place or chase the market or go to G until the next event.

FS