FogSailing's Account Talk

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Because the VIX seems to be on a rising curve...new target is 23....added volatility means we could pull back to the 100 day (1177) in relatively short order. It's a risk but I plan to ride this pony down and hopefully catch the rocket when it blasts off. Meanwhile, enjoy the peaceful ride if you're in the F Fund.

Just speculating but the volatility may a move to shake out all the buy the dippers followed by a shakeout to run the bears....hence lots of volatility. One thing is clear to me, "Sell in May and Go Away" is fast approaching. I just hope it doesn't arrive early and the volatility is a shakeout by the smart money and not a falling knife.

FS
 
I sort of see today as a moment of truth for SPX. If we fall below 2339...possible pullback in motion down to 2300 which would not surprise me. I hope we bounce. Yesterday sucked. My worries: Rising interest rates, saber rattling, debt ceiling, French election...On the positive side...best cup of coffee I've made myself in weeks..

spxtest.jpg

FS
 
Thanks for the intel FS. Markets certainly seem to be politically driven lately, so until we start to see some progress, I'm on the lily pad...ribit, ribit...

P.S. Had to laugh about kbn9vh's comment about the "stinky" pants. That's just to funny... :lmao:
 
Not getting too excited today. I still think we will head down to the 2326 -2322 pivot before starting a climb back up. If correct, that move happens later today but probably tomorrow. My upward target is 2370 resistance which recovers about 62% of losses so far. If it breaks that level, I'm guessing we rebound back to 2401-2411, then we have a major pullback. So riding the train wherever it goes at this time. Hate doing this. It sucks.

FS
 
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Tough times ahead folks if the GDP data is correct...My hope is that we are near the top and not past the top. If past the top (I'm past due to get out). If near the top, expect some shakin to happen before we hit a top. Staying invested at least through tomorrow.
 

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Decided to look at SPX now rather than in AM because of a schedule issue. Based on where we ended the day, RSI appears to be gaining momentum although MACD is lackluster. Problem is the declining triangle that will act as resistance. I am hopeful that SPX will get at or close to 2360 tomorrow. My thinking is to exit tomorrow. See attached graph:

SPX-20170417.jpg

FS
 
As long as we don't breach 2332, am staying in. Time for earnings to push this baby upward. No big selloff this morning thus far...read that bears have been taking away mid-afternoon gains...time for bulls to step up.

Here's this mornings SPX picture. Off to appointments.:

spxtoday.jpg

FS
 
Don't like it that Gold is percolating so much this morning....have moved back to the undecided camp...just FYI.

FS
 
It appears that volatility has retaken its seat at the table. Up big one day, down big the next and all the while keeping us in this tight trading channel, while slowly heading down. Suddenly April is beginning to look a lot like March...:(

Since the first of the month, F fund is up 0.66%, C fund is down -0.57%, S fund is down -1.11% and the I fund is down -0.51% as of COB 4/17/17. I think I am liking my decision to cut and run...
 
Took a few days off. Back last night and Look at that Declining Triangle...My guess is that the market continues it's pullback to 2300. No t sure of timeframe but guessing a week to 10 days to get it done...so more sideways with lower highs and lower lows (with a probable upspike rally for one or 2 days) before it gets there. He didn't post 50,100, or 200 MA but it looks like support at 2330 and 2325. Then I think it begins a bounce back to 2400 before a bigger pullback. Here's a chart from CoolBiz.

C-IQARkUAAAB7qv.jpg

FS
 
Looks to me like wave E on that futures chart should be placed at the Friday low of 2341. That completed the sideways wave 4 consolidation that started on 3/1/17, and it's where I bought 50 QQQ May 19th $132 calls contracts as well. Wave 5 can now rumble on up to 2500 or so, maybe in mid-May if McClellan is right:

Tom McClellan on May Top, June Swoon, and ?Mother of All Rallies? | James J Puplava CFP | FINANCIAL SENSE

The Friday low also lined up perfectly with the Lunatic's monthly LT wave chart which predicted a low on 4/21, followed by a strong week this week.

https://lunatictrader.com/2017/04/03/lt-wave-for-april-3/

Just pondering beyond that. I wonder if Avi Gilburt might have the right wave count and per his occasional public posts the May top would be the top of a large wave 3, then the "June swoon" McClellan expects would be wave A of the next/larger wave 4, very similar to the big wave A drop in March but on a larger scale, back down to Fridays close of 2348 or so to fill that gap. Then we get a typical summer long sideway mess before the "mother of all rallies" takes hold into 2018.
 
Hi TS. I was counting this as the last c wave of a double abc of a C wave of Minor 4. I expected a bigger pullback...at least to 5%. Looks like my wave counting still needs work. Based on this mornings action it looks like Minor 4 may have ended at 2322-29. Hate to miss the gains but could now be headed to new highs. We'll see if SPX closes above 2378. If it does I expect 2400-2420. If not, this could prove interesting.

FS
 
I had to reduce exposure. So now at 60G and 40S as of COB today. Took out the 15% I had in I fund. Agree charts looking better at this point but attribute to French exuberance plus earnings are coming in pretty good and more this week. But I expect politics to damper that..later this week...?? Hummmm ... still in enough to make some gains if it goes up further. Trying to not be too greedy!! :D. But that's so hard! :rolleyes:
 
FogSailing said:
Hi TS. I was counting this as the last c wave of a double abc of a C wave of Minor 4. I expected a bigger pullback...at least to 5%. Looks like my wave counting still needs work. Based on this mornings action it looks like Minor 4 may have ended at 2322-29. Hate to miss the gains but could now be headed to new highs. We'll see if SPX closes above 2378. If it does I expect 2400-2420. If not, this could prove interesting.

FS
Click to expand...

FS - We still could see that lower low you expect in May, after a peak in the next week or so. Gunner's scenario could be the path...

2304017
 
Watching the Yen\Dollar today. The Yen was above and stayed above the 100 Day MA after the Trump victory until about 5 weeks ago. Now it's moving back above toe 100 Day MA again. Don't know if this is a short term play to suck in new buyers. Possibly because it could float the market higher for a "short" period. I expect a correction if\when the Yen declines under the 100 MA. Tried to include graph but can't having problems with my computer. Just FYI.

FS
 
Still holding. SPX is a jittery place right now. Several traders are saying if it can break above 2414 it can extend to 2444. Here's a graph of where we are:

spx.jpg

FS
 
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