FogSailing's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Ah, so it's time to compare our contrarian indicator systems again? Well, here is my Cactus' Reverse And Profit system as of yesterday:

July 21, 2016
[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD]Cactus
[/TD]
[TD]CRAP
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD](5.11%)
[/TD]
[TD]15.43%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

How does your's compare to that? Unfortunately my contrarian system is doing extremely well this year. I never learn. I keep saying it, some of us just aren't cut out to be investors.

You're the winner Cactus....now cut the crap..

FS

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

 

[FogSailing]

Best of luck TS! I hope it works like a charm! Congrats on all the hard work it takes to create a system, and I respect all the work needed to maintain it. Same goes to Cactus!

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Picked this up from one of sites I enjoy reading: "SPX approaching a major long term trend line that we were above from 1997 but have been below since 2001." It sure looks like this market is headed to 2250 or roughly another 4%. A big part of me says just go long in August and hold on till we get there.

View attachment 38922

FS

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Picked this up from one of sites I enjoy reading: "SPX approaching a major long term trend line that we were above from 1997 but have been below since 2001." It sure looks like this market is headed to 2250 or roughly another 4%. A big part of me says just go long in August and hold on till we get there.



FS

What a coincidence..............:suspicious:

 

[FogSailing]

IT, I admit that I have been struggling with the market and I've been all over the map this year. In theory, the SPX could get to 2335 or higher, the 1.618 times relationship to the corrective wave (2135-1810), but the immediate Fib pivots indicate a more probable 4%. Today, it looks like it's headed up; but by Aug 1st I could be questioning whether I should be in at all. Frankly, the involvement of the CB's has really undermined my trust in the system.

but back to your point...there are no excuses for the paranoia... except they're all out to get me..

FS

 

[Tsunami]

It sure looks like this market is headed to 2250 or roughly another 4%.

FS

I think so too. My favorite e-wave guy PUG has 2246 as the minimum target, but likely higher.
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket (see 7/11 tweet)

I've been working on divorcing myself from predictions, good or bad ones, so I no longer have to worry about permabear predictions like this next one. The only way I could see this panning out would be if we got a super bad jobs report on 8/5...
Weekly Forecast: Week of July 25th, 2016

 

[jkenjohnson]

I think so too. My favorite e-wave guy PUG has 2246 as the minimum target, but likely higher.
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket (see 7/11 tweet)

I've been working on divorcing myself from predictions, good or bad ones, so I no longer have to worry about permabear predictions like this next one. The only way I could see this panning out would be if we got a super bad jobs report on 8/5...
Weekly Forecast: Week of July 25th, 2016

I started following PUG on twitter. How accurate is he?

 

[Tsunami]

I started following PUG on twitter. How accurate is he?

Can't really put a number on that, but what I like about him is that he's neither a perma-bear or bull, and when he's wrong he realizes it immediately and changes the wave count accordingly. I've made some good $ with him waiting patiently for wave 3 setups, and then using options or 3x ETFs. Most Elliott wave guys like Daneric, the elliottwave.com guys, and Robert McHugh...they're forever bearish and predicting the next crash is looming.

 

[FogSailing]

Absolutely agree TS. It took me a while to understand that the bears on those sites overwhelm the bulls. For most of January through the first major upward swing thru April, I put TOO MUCH confidence in the EW guys. Big mistake on my part. I just like it when folks post their view and the reasons to support it and stay away from all the bashing that goes on.

Since then, I really have backed off EW except for Fib analysis of probable pivots up and down. The TA indicators (Breadth, Momentum, McClellan, Confidence Levels, CB news, and the standard RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands, FX, Oil, and Sto's) make up the usual suspects I review. Anyways, while I still read a few sites, I follow IT these days. I have a lot of respect for all who do technical analysis, but IT's approach works for me. I wish I had a tenth of whatever it is he has. Also wish Birchtree was still posting. I miss his perma-bull approach to life.

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Yen continues to appreciate, oil continues to drop, RSI, STO, and MACD are all cooling....and the market has pulled backed for 3 days....but the Volume is a bit LOW...reminds me of the ship commander saying "steady as she goes" and makes you wonder if this is some kind of fake out? I still expect to see 2200 to 2250 as the target. I was hoping for a pull back to 2120 before jumping back in but we may not pull back that far.. holding in G another day to see how this unfolds. I think the Friday jobs number is going to be a big market mover..

View attachment 39000

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Read this AM that BoE lowered the interest rate. The CB's know how to party...

View attachment 39017

FS

 

[FogSailing]

Looks like RSI is on the rise but only at the 61ish so there is still upside, MACD had turned skyward as has Slow Sto....Some EW guys are saying 2180 was a high and now expect a turnback to 2135 area, but others say 2180 is Intermediate Wave 5 that is extending so no real clues there. Oil seems to be dropping but still topping $40 and FX seems stable....Tom's sentiment trade graph indicates better than average returns through 8/18...but it was at this time last year when things went belly up...what to do what to do..

View attachment 39027

FS

 

[FogSailing]

I'm definitely feeling bullish, but so is the rest of the world. When sentiment is this high, it's time to be cautious.

View attachment 39049

Also the daily MACD is -so far- not confirming the up move either as it hasn’t given a buy crossover yet.

I'll be watching. Want to hold through Friday at least. My gut says this market needs to get to 2195 or higher before it pulls back...but that's the problem..it's a gut feeling..

FS

 

[clester]

Tsp talk sentiment survey is not that bullish.

 

[tsptalk]

AAII Survey. The new one comes out Thursday.

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks Tom. I like your chart better because it allows me to willing to walk the wall of worry for a bit longer....I guess it all comes down to who's responding to the surveys....still, that pie chart I received is making it's way around the internet to a lot of traders and investors. I'll watch for Thursday's update and will be interested to see where things are on the AAII survey. As I'm watching this am, I have to say that USD\JPY and EUR\JPY have me concerned. The Yen is strengthening quickly and more than I'd like to see. The good news is that VIX and OIL look healthy for the moment. I'm hoping that the YEN devalues Wed through Friday Options Expiration and oil and VIX hold their own. I'd love to see the MACD crossover on SPX. We'll see how it goes.

FS

 

[tsptalk]

It looks like the one you posted is the most up to date. Our's and AAII don't take Friday's rally into consideration.

 

[FogSailing]

OK then...Back to flying by the seat of my pants...

View attachment 39050

FS

 

[clester]

CNN's fear/greed index is on extreme greed.

 

[Tsunami]

I'm definitely feeling bullish, but so is the rest of the world. When sentiment is this high, it's time to be cautious.... My gut says this market needs to get to 2195 or higher before it pulls back...but that's the problem..it's a gut feeling..
FS

There's always things to worry about...
Weekly Forecast: Week of August 8th, 2016
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
In addition, the VIX and S&P 500 both gave sell signals today by first closing outside of their Bollinger Bands and then closing back inside of them today.