FogSailing's Account Talk

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Board looks good so far today. I'm a little surprised to see Gold up as much as it is. I was expecting a bit of a pullback. That suggests to me the Yen is about to rise which is a bit troublesome...What to do...what to do...

FS
 
Too emotional today. Shouldn't have looked at anything (blogs, forum,etc.) or turned the news on. Decided to bail to G. Best of luck to all in your investing.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Zero Hedge article on inflation...looks like strong food for a possible fed rate hike unless employment numbers continue to fall but even then??.....unfortunately: this will probably hurt both Wall Street and Main Street.

Consumer Prices Jump Most In Over 3 Years Amid Rising Gasoline, Rent Inflation | Zero Hedge

FS
Click to expand...

I think we will continue to learn how bad things really are as we get closer to November, like what the real unemployment figures are (must be well over 10%) that actually are in line with the labor participation rate.
 
Well.... the market keeps it interesting. It continues to close at 2040 or higher. That resistance is really frustrating the bears. On the other hand the percent of stocks over their 50 dma went to a sell, and percent of stocks over the 200 dma is almost a sell. On the other hand, the put/call ratio is showing extreme bearishness which is bullish. The SPX is sporting a descending triangle headed toward 1960. The dollar seems to be losing a little steam, the yen is heading up a bit and oil is down which is bad for junk bonds and banks. But unemployment claims are down indicating main street is doing ok. Several momentum indicators still show strong breadth in SPX and the Dow. The VIX appears to be headed for the mid teens or higher. The question is will it unwind like a spring or will the tension be slowly released, or will it rewind. Right now it appears to be uncoiling a bit. Overall, the indicators are mixed but there is a lot of underlying strength in this market. It seems like it will take a major negative event to take it down further.

View attachment 38300

I speculated last Sunday that there was a potential for a big up to 2111 this week based on my wave count but the market has continued to pull back all week. However, it continues to close above the 2040 pivot. There is only one certainty: the market will keep you guessing. Best to you in your investing.

FS
 
Well....the market is getting ready to show us its hand...IMO we're now either headed to a potential double top at 2111 or a pullback to 1960. The P&F chart suggests a pullback as to several other indicators BUT a close, near, or above 2060 indicates that we are headed north again. So descending triangle (P&F) or a W pattern appear the most logical possibilities.

View attachment 38308

To date: 2111 – 2039 – 2084 – 2025 to 2111 and higher or 2010 and lower.
2040 is still the number that is the center of this.
Everybody expects a H&S down, but the W pattern seems very possible.
There is still a lot of strength in this market. I wish I had stayed in now even though I'd be in hyper-anxiety mode.
If it is a W pattern, we have already turned up, and are likely on our way to 2111 for a double top.
But, if I were trading what's in front of me (as I have been), I'd be thinking 1960.
We may know by the end of the day, but more likely Monday.

FS
 
Agreed TS. I do not like to hear news about pension plans going belly up. That's just bad for everyone.

Of course.... it's ok to bail out AIG, and the banks, and Wall Street....:eek::eek::eek:

FS
 
My guess is that three big events over the next month that will determine were the stock market goes. The first week of June is the job report and should be weak given the rising initial claims (see the 1-yr trend at research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/IC4WSA). A weak jobs report raises questions about a Fed rate hike so expect a positive response (target guestimate is SPX 2085). Next on June 15th the Fed announcement where a “No” vote will likely see the SPX up to 2100. Finally, the Brexit vote on June 23rd where a “No” vote will likely see the SPX up to the previous ATH at 2135. Different outcomes will most likely not be positive.

Also, sentiment is virtually unchanged for the week both intermediate (2 to 6 months) and short term (2 to 6 weeks).

On the Bearish side this was posted by a bear analyst I follow: "2025 is recognized by a fair few as 'market critical'... although that could be endlessly argued over. What should be clear... the market has been quietly cooling from the April 20th high of 2111. Price action remains very choppy.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower for a fourth week. At the current rate, there will be a bearish cross in the last week of May... or first week of June. By definition, that will be the first realistic opportunity for a powerful move lower.

Best guess: near term downside to the 1990/1960 zone... before another bounce of 3-4%.... and then the first big move lower.
Unless equity bulls can break back into the 2100s, they have little reason to be confident, and should instead be concerned about a down wave that should (at minimum) be equivalent in scale to Jan'2016 and Aug'2015"

FS
 
airlift said:
FS, is it a correct interpretation that the Bradley siderograph depicts the SPX as rising from June 4 to July 1, 2016 (approx)? Thanks.
Click to expand...

I'll chime in on that question....Bradley turn dates are just that, potential turn dates. They never predict highs or lows. I'd suggest you look at the past dates and compare them with reality. If you do that you'll probably come up with the same conclusion that I did (that, in my opinion, they're totally useless, but once in a blue moon a turn date is accurate...like a stopped clock). Having said that, I have found that the lunar phases do seem to have some influence, especially during the slower trading months of the year from June - August.

P.S. - Just to close out my comment about buying puts late yesterday on Whipsaw's thread...I closed those out this morning for a small gain since the moves over the last 24 hours have been sideways, suggesting consolidation and another move higher should be imminent.... so I'm back to 100% cash and looking to re-establish a short position a bit higher, still hoping to see the S&P eek out one more touch of 2100....one problem with that is I think every trader on the planet has a stop or at least a mental stop at 2111, so if that breaks the short covering could be spectacular.
 
Sort of TS....What it depicts is that there is an expected turn in the market based on sentiment and investor psychology all premised on planetary movements. For example, the sideograph is expecting a turn on June 1st. If the market currently has strong momentum in a specific direction (that will usually play out ...for example if its in an upswing that upswing will complete but the turn is in process). However, in general, the sideograph indicates that the markets will move up because of investor sentiment during this turn. I hope I explained that well enough..All the best.

FS
 
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